FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Its been a good move into stocks May 23, C/S/I with about 4% total gain in the past 2 weeks.
However...VIX is now now near 4 month lows (see chart below), lots of overly bullish sentiment setting in also, seen on our Sentiment Survey.
Todays positive trade vibes are just that...reality is only 1 Trade Deal has been done so far, and thats with the UK where we've actually had a Trade SURPLUS (lol). Savvy world leaders know Trump is "TACO" and they will be playing him for all its worth.
Also, Russia might be preparing to do something really bad and evil in Ukraine, after 1/3 of their nuclear bomber fleet was so beautifully destroyed by Ukraines SBU.

So will be using the current overly bullish sentiment to lock in 1.5%-2%+ monthly gains (depending on how today closes) and wait for a better buy in opportunity later this month.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Been in G for a bit, locking in the gains I made in the first few months of 2025, but missed much of the last 2 months.
Looking for a good buy in point, seems the 20 day MA has been a good point for luring dip buyers back, and we are there right now, as well as down 3 of 4 days. So leaving 100% G and going 100% C COB today.

 

[tsptalk]

Don't you love it when you're right, but the TSP deadline takes your gains?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Been in G for a bit, locking in the gains I made in the first few months of 2025, but missed much of the last 2 months.
Looking for a good buy in point, seems the 20 day MA has been a good point for luring dip buyers back, and we are there right now, as well as down 3 of 4 days. So leaving 100% G and going 100% C COB today. View attachment 69966

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Don't you love it when you're right, but the TSP deadline takes your gains?

True. But in this case I wish I had missed the Wed 8/20 COB deadline, as the C was down 0.39% the next day (yesterday) before surging today.
But just like in boxing....sometimes you gotta move inside and take a punch, before you deliver your knockout blow.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

VIX near yearly low...its been a decent upward ride last 2 weeks, will lock in near 1% Sep gains, depending on todays close, and hopefully get a better buy in to equities before months end. Leaving 100% C and going 100% G COB today.

 

[tsptalk]

James's "tingle" indicator got you, didn't it?

It's been pretty reliable.

Post in thread 'James48843 Account Talk'

Sep 10, 2025

You know, for some reason today I’m not feeling good about the stock market.

It’s not yet to the “itchy in the back of my neck” stage, but it IS starting to tingle just a bit. “Tingle” usually comes before “itchy. “

That Poland drone attack makes me very uncomfortable.

I’ll let you know if the tingling increases. As it is, I’m perking up and paying closer attention as of today. Getting ready to move a chunk over to G for safety soon. Maybe today, maybe in a week. We shall see.

Good luck.

• James48843

• 

 

[FireWeatherMet]

James's "tingle" indicator got you, didn't it?

It's been pretty reliable.

Post in thread 'James48843 Account Talk'

Sep 10, 2025

You know, for some reason today I’m not feeling good about the stock market.

It’s not yet to the “itchy in the back of my neck” stage, but it IS starting to tingle just a bit. “Tingle” usually comes before “itchy. “

That Poland drone attack makes me very uncomfortable.

I’ll let you know if the tingling increases. As it is, I’m perking up and paying closer attention as of today. Getting ready to move a chunk over to G for safety soon. Maybe today, maybe in a week. We shall see.

Good luck.

• James48843

• 

Didn't see his "tingle" till just now, LOL. But I suspect we both watch the same news sources, so perhaps thats what helped set off my "tingle".
I did notice small caps starting to lean over, while S&P was still up....remembered a few cases when small caps lead the way, both upward and downward, so was worried that today was going to be the last station that I could safely get off the "C-train" for a few days.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

After sidestepping the market the last 2 weeks, it seems the recent 3-4 day down-trend on the major indices are now tickling the 20 day MA, which has been a good buy back in target the last several months, so will leave the G- Lilypad COB today and go 35% C, 35% S, and 30% I, COB today. Have avoided the I fund for a few years, due to my lack of effort looking into Internationals, but the I's superior performance this year cannot be ignored, so threw some in there as well.

 

[nasa1974]

After sidestepping the market the last 2 weeks, it seems the recent 3-4 day down-trend on the major indices are now tickling the 20 day MA, which has been a good buy back in target the last several months, so will leave the G- Lilypad COB today and go 35% C, 35% S, and 30% I, COB today. Have avoided the I fund for a few years, due to my lack of effort looking into Internationals, but the I's superior performance this year cannot be ignored, so threw some in there as well. View attachment 70201

Good luck. Make money.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

We look like we're peaking today on our 7-12 day upward cycle, similar the past few months (see chart).
At record highs, on top of a week-long upward surge...and going into a weekend and into the worst seasonality of the year next week.
Everything I'm looking points to a Monday morning reversal...likely falling back at least to the 20 day EMA line which has been the benchmark this year.
With todays up trend, if it holds, should be up near +1.3% for the month, with plenty of opportunity to buy back in later this month, at a lower price.
Usually don't IFT this early in the month, but will lock in Oct gains and exiting full position in equities and went 100% G COB today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

We look like we're peaking today on our 7-12 day upward cycle, similar the past few months (see chart).
At record highs, on top of a week-long upward surge...and going into a weekend and into the worst seasonality of the year next week.
Everything I'm looking points to a Monday morning reversal...likely falling back at least to the 20 day EMA line which has been the benchmark this year.
With todays up trend, if it holds, should be up near +1.3% for the month, with plenty of opportunity to buy back in later this month, at a lower price.
Usually don't IFT this early in the month, but will lock in Oct gains and exiting full position in equities and went 100% G COB today.