6/25/12
Stocks bounced back from Thursday's big sell-off as the major indices climbed back up to some possible resistance on Friday. The Dow gained 67-points on the day.
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[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.18%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.72%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.93%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.22%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
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For the weekly and monthly TSP returns, please see our recent TSP Weekly Wrap-Up.
After falling below the 50-day EMA on Thursday, the S&P 500 tested it on Friday's bounce but it was not able to overtake it. The neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern is in play again - this time as resistance so the 1340 area will be an important barrier for the S&P to overcome.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The smart money of the OEX put/call ratio is back in defensive mode while, not surprisingly, the dumb money has been remaining more bullish - although in relation to the prior bullishness of earlier this year, the dumb money seems a lot less optimistic. But the smart money is not too excited about stocks heading into the summer.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar saw a steady pullback for most of June before it broke out of its recent descending trend. The 50-day EMA acted as strong support so if the dollar resumes its larger upside trend, it could make some trouble for the stock market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The strength in the dollar since early May also helped pull the price of oil down, but in June the pullback in the dollar stalled the decline in oil as it consolidated between $81 and $85. But as you can see, when the dollar broke out on Thursday, oil quickly fell below $80 before closing barely back above it on Friday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Unfortunately oil seems to be falling on the weak economic data as demand may be falling. Gas prices have come down some, which helps consumers, but not yet quite as much as oil has fallen.
As we head into the summer doldrums, there are a few events that should be catalysts for the market. The Supreme Court is expected to Rule on Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) this week. We have the June jobs report coming out next Friday (July 6) and of course the daily gyrations of the presidential campaigns should keep the market on its toes all summer.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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