08/01/13
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Stocks end a great month for stocks by rallying at the open yesterday, falling back into the FOMC policy statement, rallying after the announcement, then falling toward the break-even level into the close. The Dow ended the day down 21-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
After the close however, the futures shot up about a 1/2 of a percent.
Here are the final returns for the month of July, plus the current annual returns:
The S&P 500 put in a negative reversal day but continues to hold above the May high. The negative reversal day would normally portend some downside follow-through today, but as I mentioned, the futures were up sharply after the close yesterday so, we'll see.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100, which has been acting very bullishly, has painted itself into a corner. Rising wedges tend to be bearish but I think we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt here because of the current market environment. Yes, August isn't a strong month historically, but until we start seeing support lines fail, the ball is still in the bulls' court.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here's another look at the historical August seasonality chart.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
We get the July jobs report on Friday and consensus estimates were recently raised to a gain of 195,000 and an unemployment rate of 7.5%. Forum members can get in on the monthly Jobs Report Contest by going to: Jobs Reports & Contests
Administrative Notes: The Ebbchart System posted its final report yesterday. I want to thank Ebb for his dedication going back to 2006, and all of his subscribers for their support.
So that we are not leaving you high and dry, RevShark has offered to give free access to his TSP Timing premium service for everyone, through next week. You do have to create a login to gain access.
If you don't have an account yet, here's how to get started...
http://www.tsptalk.com/create-premium-account.php
Or view video instructions here: http://www.tsptalk.com/create-premium-account-video.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
