Stocks spent the morning struggling a bit as Janet Yellen talked about the economy, but the downside started to accelerate after news of a mass shooting in San Bernardino, CA was announced, and fears of a possible terrorist attack. The Dow lost 159-points on the day, and many indices basically gave back all of Tuesday's gains.
The S&P 500 posted a negative reversal day, which is bearish for the very short-term (early trading today), and we're seeing some big tests on many of the charts of the major indices.
On Friday morning we get the November jobs report and estimates are looking for a gain of 196,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.0%. The Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here. (Sorry this link was wrong earlier this week)
[TABLE="width: 89%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 180, align: center"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 49, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
A closer look at the SPY shows the negative reversal day more clearly. That's a higher high and a lower low, compared to the prior day, and closing near the lows...
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-fund) can't seem to get past that resistance that has been around for two months. Again, it looks like a positive chart with potential to break to the upside, but until it does breakout, there is always a chance that the index will remain in a bear market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 pulled back but held at the 200-day EMA so this is a key area for small caps, and our S-fund, which should follow.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index fell back to the rising support line. Like the small caps, the chart formation is fairly positive, but without a breakout we should probably not anticipate anything bullish to happen. Once we get a breakout that holds for a few days, we can start getting more bullish on the Transports, which is a market leader.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The price of oil broke down meaningfully from the bear flag we have been watching, and it seems logical that a test of the August lows is in the cards. Since stocks have been moving in fairly close sympathy with the price of oil, a test of the lows would likely be bearish for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) pulled back after Tuesday's big rally. There is an open gap near 109 that may look to get filled during this rebound, but the top of that gap could act as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The S&P 500 posted a negative reversal day, which is bearish for the very short-term (early trading today), and we're seeing some big tests on many of the charts of the major indices.
On Friday morning we get the November jobs report and estimates are looking for a gain of 196,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.0%. The Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here. (Sorry this link was wrong earlier this week)
[TABLE="width: 89%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 180, align: center"]
[TD="width: 49, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell back within the bull flag it had broken out from just a day before. The negative reversal day does look negative for the start of trading on Thursday but there is some decent support where the rising support line and the 20-day EMA meet near 208. Of course we get the November jobs report tomorrow and sometimes support and resistance are taken out fairly easily by emotional reactions from economic data like that.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
A closer look at the SPY shows the negative reversal day more clearly. That's a higher high and a lower low, compared to the prior day, and closing near the lows...
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-fund) can't seem to get past that resistance that has been around for two months. Again, it looks like a positive chart with potential to break to the upside, but until it does breakout, there is always a chance that the index will remain in a bear market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 pulled back but held at the 200-day EMA so this is a key area for small caps, and our S-fund, which should follow.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index fell back to the rising support line. Like the small caps, the chart formation is fairly positive, but without a breakout we should probably not anticipate anything bullish to happen. Once we get a breakout that holds for a few days, we can start getting more bullish on the Transports, which is a market leader.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The price of oil broke down meaningfully from the bear flag we have been watching, and it seems logical that a test of the August lows is in the cards. Since stocks have been moving in fairly close sympathy with the price of oil, a test of the lows would likely be bearish for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) pulled back after Tuesday's big rally. There is an open gap near 109 that may look to get filled during this rebound, but the top of that gap could act as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
