Fasten Your Seatbelts...

[tsptalk]

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puertorico wrote:

I have a question here ?

"Friday 20 start option week "

tHat means market go down ?or not always ?

Options expiration week is typically good. The week after is weaker than normal.

 

[puertorico]

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Thanks Tom for the Graffic

Yes I understand the week after of expirations,most of the time

the market go down .



EXPIRATION OPTIONS FRIDAY 20.

sO ,eAsy outthere after friday...:^just precaution:^

 

[Rod]

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4 DAY STREAK, AND HOLDING!!!:^

Feels good to be invested... especially after the last few weeks.

 

[Rod]

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It's really nice to see that record high oil prices are no longer bringing the market into the RED like it was.

:^

 

[tsptalk]

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Yeah, like we had said a couple of weeks ago, in this phase of a bull market, bad news is treated as good news. The market finds any reason to go higher. I just hope we are at that point now.

 

[Timer]

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tsptalk wrote:

in this phase of a bull market, bad news is treated as good news.

I am still new to watching the market on a daily basis but I can't believe that oil being as high as it is and going higher, the market is going up the way it is. Currently I am 40C 45S and 15I. I know I shouldn't be in the I but... like a moth to the flame.

 

[Rod]

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Timer wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

in this phase of a bull market, bad news is treated as good news.

I am still new to watching the market on a daily basis but I can't believe that oil being as high as it is and going higher, the market is going up the way it is. Currently I am 40C 45S and 15I. I know I shouldn't be in the I but... like a moth to the flame.

Oil is back below $48 a barrel.:^

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

canis-d wrote:

Are you guys trying to move your retirement money in/out on a daily basis?

Take a look at the daily or weekly charts... we're in a clear downtrend; don't fight it and wait for a clear turnaround. I feel for you people that are clinging to hope and trying to pick a bottom.

The weekly uptrend starting last April has clearly broken down. When we do turn around there will be plenty of upmove left after the turning point is shown. Please don't keep trying to catch a falling knife when it comes to your retirement savings!

Canis-D

Hello Canis-D. Thanks for joining us. I do think your strategy is a sound one. Fewer transfers watching the main trend is a great adea. The only problem I have is that in late April, when you could say the uptrend ended, the S&P 500 was not much higher than it is now and we had an explosive rally to near new highs right after it (~ 1095 to ~1150). I didn't play it too wellbut their was money to be made for someone whose timing was better than mine. For this "downtrend" to end, the S&P will have to climb to about 1140 or almost 80 points from where we are now. That's a big chunk to miss. I would stake my reputation (which isn't worth much at this point :shock on the next 80 point move being up, rather than down...

Tom

canis-d wrote:

I've tried 'timing' the market based just on my own gut feelings, by the obvious 'it is SO LOW/HIGH it HAS to go UP/DOWN', etc. and other emotional methods and/or indicators. The problem is that it is so easy to become 'married' to a position (ie. the type of thing that makes one say 'but I'll bet the next 80 point move will be up rather than down'!)

Canis-D

This may sound a lot like gloating but it is more to make a point. I also haven't been able to gloat for quite a while so maybe a little. The above exchange took place on or about August 13. Since then the S&P is up 60 points or about 6%.

Maybe someone with more patience than I have can wait it out, but I am curious if Canis-D is still on the sidelines? We are still in that downtrend but as I mentioned, you would have to miss a big chunk before that downtrend ends. This is why I get antsy. I do admit that we are closer to the top of the trend then the bottom. So either we have a breakout and a new upward trend, or we are close to an about face and head down. Either way we had a nice 6% gain that was there for the taking. This is when timing works. Those of us who picked up this gain can step aside and lock in those gains if we wanted.

Tom

 

[Spaf]

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What is all the excitement!

The first 12 days of August were bearish. We hit a low about August 12th. With few exceptions the TSP accounts have risen since then. C was at 11.25 on 8-12. Today it closed out at 11:88.

Stocks appear to be going up. If the moving average of say 20 days crosses atop the prices, Yeh I'll move to the G fund. Otherwise I'll be in stocks tomorrow. If things turn bearish. Heck we can transfer within 1 day.