fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Welcome, me.
Last week, I went into F thinking it would rise - maybe it will. Though I keep thinking I is too high, I can't help but notice the $USD trend headed downward and the EFA trend heading upward. The markets here may be waiting for a dip, but I'm not so sure that is happening abroad. COB 4/28/06, I'll be:
100% I

 

[fabijo]

Looks like COB today, I fund will be up pretty good. I'll be jumping half out of it into the F to catch some F upside next week (we'll see).

from 100% I
to 50% I , 50% F

 

[fabijo]

I'm an idiot for not just staying 100% I. All the articles I'm reading that you guys are posting have me convinced to stay international and avoid U.S. I'll be sitting in I for a while.

 

[fabijo]

I was going to get out of I after the long ride down, but oh well. I'll just let myself enjoy the ride. I gotta stop making decisions out of fear and greed. My fear is telling me to get out, but that was the same thing telling me to get in just before the big drop. This year is one of the toughest learning experiences in my life. Hey, I still got at least 25 years left. That should be long enough for it to recover!

 

[lacaprup]

I actually just decided to jump back into I. Although, my transaction won't be posted until today's huge losses take effect. I'm expecting the rebound to come quickly, and only last a day or two. This move is all about timing.

 

[fabijo]

... and perfect timing you did! I'm hoping this is the return of the bull!

 

[fabijo]

I'd like to remove my name from the tsp returns tracking. I know it is hard work updating everyone's moves. Also, I'm more just following other moves now, so there's no point in tracking mine.

 

[Rod]

Would you also like us to delete your account threads?

 

[fabijo]

Would you also like us to delete your account threads?

That's fine with me. Maybe in a year or two, I'll be a little wiser and feel I can come up with my own reasons for moving between funds. The past couple of months has been either following what someone else said or just wildly making decisions from fear or greed.

 

[fabijo]

Well, I've been reading and studying. I think I am disciplined enough to stick to a plan. I've been sitting in the F fund since 9/27, but for the tracker, we can just say F Fund by COB 11/13/06.

 

[EW_ret]

Got you covered! I will add you to the Weekly Tracker effective 11-13-2006 at 100% F.

 

[fabijo]

I'm getting out of F and plan to get back into the market. I would like to go to I, but I'm afraid there will be a positive FV today. I'll give it a little time to decide where to this week.

 

[fabijo]

I would like to go to I, but I'm afraid there will be a positive FV today. I'll give it a little time to decide where to this week.

Ah, no FV. So far, it looks like I should've went to the I fund. Let's see how the rest of the night plays out.

 

[fabijo]

Well, I only waited until today to go 100% I. So far, it is looking to be a down day for the I fund, so a good time to buy. The Slow Stochastics is not way into overbought and the price has been hovering around here for the past week or so. I don't think this flat movement will lead the prices down just yet. There's still more upside to go.

 

[fabijo]

Despite my fears of a correction, I'm going against my emotions and staying in the I Fund 100%. ebbnflow says there's an 80 to 90% probability for red all week. To me, that says if there is green this week it could be BIG. I'll let myself be the guinea pig.

 

[fabijo]

Despite my fears of a correction, I'm going against my emotions and staying in the I Fund 100%. ebbnflow says there's an 80 to 90% probability for red all week. To me, that says if there is green this week it could be BIG. I'll let myself be the guinea pig.

Then again... Looking at the US Dollar index, it seems the dollar is at a support level.

 

[fabijo]

Despite my fears of a correction, I'm going against my emotions and staying in the I Fund 100%.

So far, it looks like I made a good choice fighting my emotions.

 

[fabijo]

I went 100% C fund earlier this week. Today's actions haven't scared me out just yet. If I waited a little longer, I'd be jumping in today. The Slow STO hasn't triggered the sell sign just yet.

 

[350zCommTech]

I went 100% C fund earlier this week. Today's actions haven't scared me out just yet. If I waited a little longer, I'd be jumping in today. The Slow STO hasn't triggered the sell sign just yet.

My friend,

IMHO, you might be making mistake.

Good luck to you.

 

[fabijo]

Thanks, 350z. I'm going to give it a little longer for me to decide.
By the way, does anyone happen to have historical data for the Lehman U.S. Bond Composite Index? I'm trying to put together a database that I can play with. So far, I have:

daily S&P 500 data from Jan 3, 1950
daily DJ Wilshire 4500 Completion data from Jan 30, 1987
daily MSCI EAFE Net (USD) from May 4, 2001

Lehman only issues the closing price of their index at the end of the day, but I think I would need to be a subscriber if I wanted to download their historical data. Since they only issue the closing price, I could just as easily use TSP's data for the F Fund, starting June 2, 2003.