FAB1 Account Talk

[burrocrat]

looks like you got your pudding today, nice shot.

 

[FAB1]

looks like you got your pudding today, nice shot.

And I didn't even have to kick my feet, Teacher!!

 

[FAB1]

Now hopefully we can see S&P mimic the Oct. 2015 action.

In six weeks (after a double bottom) the S&P 500 went from a low of 1875 to top out at 2100

But with the continued forming of a rounded top, I would expect a lower exit point of SPX 2000-25 (if we get that high)

Lets wait and See!

 

[FAB1]

From Oct '15 to Nov, Oil was up the first couple of weeks and then strongly down the next two weeks (while SPX continued to go up).

So there was a SPX/ Oil "disconnect" about 50% during that big rally of October.

Traders thought the market was oversold then but do they feel the same way now after the deeper dip in January?

VIX may indicate the fear is greater than the greed at this point in time. Bear looming large.

 

[FAB1]

Market Leader $TRAN (now 7134) IF breaking resistance @ 7160 (EMA 200 weekly) could be a very good sign!

The last breakdown of a $TRAN bear flag "nearly" coincided with the January SPX correction. : (

If $TRAN breaks downward ?...this is something to watch closely

 

[FAB1]

+ 2.43 MTD.

Pile On everybody! Don't delay

Oh, LAST man on the pile -- LOSES!

 

[kb9nvh]

Strangely similar to the description of a pyramid scheme.

Remember when we were kids we would play "pile on"?

This is what will keep the rally alive from here on out, if investors keep jumping in, afraid of missing the precious gain.

Only in THIS game, last man on the pile -- LOSES!

 

[FAB1]

Rally Day 3 On the way up, but to where?

There is an open gap @ SPX 2040. If we will fill that, maybe rise a little higher but that's the ceiling if the market can't produce a higher-high.

 

[FAB1]

EFA now above its EMA 20 resistance. Hopefully this will hold as support but this index has not been able to stay above the 20/50 ema since early Dec '15.

Next open gap will close @ 56.50 but not before it butts heads with the EMA 50 @ 55.50 or so.

New gaps open below too. Could be good money in I fund but more risk in its Bear market condition.

 

[FAB1]

Good for stocks?

1) Bleeding stopped in the DHY High yield - + 1.80 so far

2) AGG falls out the upward trading channel (but supported from below & hangs in balance).

So, What is going to happen tomorrow?

 

[FAB1]

Noticed more than a few moves to "G" in the tracker yesterday. Still holding SPX.

Seeing a few things I like in the charts - If and when those elements "go south" it could be time to bail.

I don't see this rally as being done quite yet -- may go sideways a while & may test support areas before
the next leg up.

Good luck all!

 

[FAB1]

More thoughts on today.

Perhaps the Market Xpress train is slowing down like pulling into a station...beckoning investors to climb on board! woo woo!

VIX downward trend not halted yet.

DHY High Yields upward trend continues.

Double bottom and PMO cross (mimicking last Oct blowout rally) indicate good recovery from Jan. correction!

 

[FAB1]

So far, so good. conditions still favorable for a bump UP next week.

If Oil rallies some today, looking for positive SPX before close.

Life is good!

 

[FAB1]

All the indexes moving in the right directions for the next leg up!

A SPX move above the EMA 50 would be sweet by the close!

Looking more like a repeat of the Oct rally

 

[FAB1]

Beating the C fund now by 4.64%. Likely move today to our "F" fund...not many trading days left this month and I DO want to hold on to gains.

Seeing weakness in SPX @ EMA 50. "If" Oil falters major indexes could drop to test the EMA 20 in the next couple of days.
But VIX and MACD are still looking favorable so drop could be short and controlled.

So looking for a brief pause in the rally - then on Monday or Tues (Feb. 1st) either a big jump up or a break below the support. (depending on OIL)

If a jump up I will consider and IFT above SPX 1940.

 

[FAB1]

Always expect the Unexpected in the stock market. Big dip, unabated could be short-term game changer.

Move to 100% F @ 11:30a today.

Hopefully, this dip will reverse somewhat after lunchtime, if not I will have to eat it

 

[JTH]

Beating the C fund now by 4.64%. Likely move today to our "F" fund...not many trading days left this month and I DO want to hold on to gains.

Seeing weakness in SPX @ EMA 50. "If" Oil falters major indexes could drop to test the EMA 20 in the next couple of days.
But VIX and MACD are still looking favorable so drop could be short and controlled.

So looking for a brief pause in the rally - then on Monday or Tues (Feb. 1st) either a big jump up or a break below the support. (depending on OIL)

If a jump up I will consider and IFT above SPX 1940.

Not sure what I think about these markets, SPX is holding up better than I expected and has yet to fill the top gap. Also, W4500 is outperforming SPX, this isn't something I'd expect to see on a serious downwave. I think there's a good chance we'll recover most of today's damage.

 

[FAB1]

I liked your post JTH but still decided to protect Feb gains. Thus a further drop to lower support or gap will be advantageous to my current position.

Glad to ride a wave up to 2050 though!! Bring it on in March!

 

[JTH]

I liked your post JTH but still decided to protect Feb gains. Thus a further drop to lower support or gap will be advantageous to my current position.

Glad to ride a wave up to 2050 though!! Bring it on in March!

Agreed, knowing there's a high probability of locking 4-5% gains for the month, I probably would have done the same thing, plus AGG has a decent 75% 12-year winning ratio across the last 3 days of February, (all things considered) it's a pretty good play.

 

[FAB1]

Here is where it gets interesting for the week.

Looks like SPX has left off following the Oct pattern where resistance was handily defeated, moving into a "fill the gaps" pattern in short order.

Support possible @ SPX 1865?? (with gap filled)

This could get dicey if buyers don't step up to bring SPX back over the EMA 20 soon.