F Fund where will it go ?

[dpmp]

They keep talking about the credit being available. For whom? The taxpayers are up to their eyeballs with debts. Higher interest rate on CC is putting a damper on those who still have a job. Those who have lost their jobs will be living on ramen noodle and chicken soup.

It is not just about the money available to be borrowed and spent and borrowed some more, it is about who's willing to get back into debts.

Oh by the way, I didn't mention the additional humongous tax obligations that will have to be met by the same taxpayers whom the government is trying to get them start spending.

Such childish view of this government amazes me.

"...Jeremy Grantham's (GMO) take on the stock market outlook is summarized in his recent quarterly newsletter, in which he says: "The current stimulus is so extensive globally that surely it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year. (This seems about 80% probable to me, anyway.) Anticipating this, we should expect a stock market recovery - which normally leads economic recovery by six months, plus or minus two - sometime between two months ago and, say, August, which the astute reader will realize implies that this rally may already be it."..."

http://safehaven.com/article-13306.htm

Lady

 

[DCguy]

this bond market, F, will crash unless the govt's willing to let the stock market crash, which I dont think will happend.. If the govt raises the interest paid on bonds, I think the US will go bankrupt after GM.. and also the mortgage rate will skyrocket.. causing more foreclosures as ARMs adjust... causing even more stress on banks

 

[Bullitt]

AGG either making an IT top here or breaking to higher ground. Doesn't look like it's developed much of a springboard for those higher prices it's reaching for, so I'm going to err to the side of IT top.

 

[JTH]

AGG either making an IT top here or breaking to higher ground. Doesn't look like it's developed much of a springboard for those higher prices it's reaching for, so I'm going to err to the side of IT top.

I'm with you on the toppy, but for now I'll stay in the F-Fund if stocks & bonds continue to trade inversely and stocks continue to head down. But hey, I sure hope I'm not in when the F-bubble pops! Check out this monthly AGG chart, does it look toppy? :cheesy:

View attachment 6763

 

[alevin]

In bonds, the Market Climate last week was characterized by relatively neutral yield levels and slightly unfavorable yield pressures. Inflation shows no near-term likelihood of resurgence. Any sustained upward pressure on that front is most likely 3-4 years away, despite the enormous increase in the outstanding stock of U.S. government liabilities. Weakness in the exchange value of the U.S. dollar, however, is a more pertinent risk, and the risk of substantial deterioration is increasing, particularly in light of the recent softening in bond yields. We're not quite at the point where dollar weakness is an immediate concern, but from the perspective of fixed income, foreign currencies, and inflation risks, I would presently identify the dollar as our primary source of concern.

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc090831.htm

By my amateur DeMark price support calculations, 101.5 is support on $AKG. On a count of 1-9 above that (closing price > closing price 4 bars earlier), we made it to 9 (sell early warning signal but not necessarily a bailout NOW! signal by DeMark indicator standards).

 

[weatherweenie]

I never can read this fund correctly, during the day. But to my untrained eye, the F fund looks like it is up quite a bit today.

 

[nnuut]

Look at the 10 year and 30 year bonds if they are down the "F" is up and visa versa. I think we all know that the Yahoo Chart at the bottom of the page can be WRONG, it looks right today!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tyx
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$TNX

 

[mayday]

Look at the 10 year and 30 year bonds if they are down the "F" is up and visa versa. I think we all know that the Yahoo Chart at the bottom of the page can be WRONG, it looks right today!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tyx
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$TNX

Looks like I made a tad today.

 

[JTH]

Looks like I made a tad today.

Yes indeed, today's AGG close matched the previous intraday swing high, and we have room to grow higher within this recent price channel. Given AGG's predictability, I'm optimisticly cautious for yet another swing high.

 

[mayday]

Yes indeed, today's AGG close matched the previous intraday swing high, and we have room to grow higher within this recent price channel. Given AGG's predictability, I'm optimisticly cautious for yet another swing high.

I like the way you think JTH. Those charts on your blog are awesome.

 

[JTH]

Strongest move to the downside we've seen in a while. Crossover on the MACD, and came .01 away from touching the 20 SMA.

Something fishy...
View attachment 6950

 

[Buster]

So far since I've been in F..I've made a few cents each day...I like those cute little spikes at the end of the day

 

[Birchtree]

You should be OK in the F fund for the next 18 months making those pennies. But when rates start to go up it'll be time to duck and cover. I prefer nickles and dimes myself.

 

[Buster]

You should be OK in the F fund for the next 18 months making those pennies. But when rates start to go up it'll be time to duck and cover. I prefer nickles and dimes myself.

Roger that! at least till Uncle Ben comes out again..I'm gonna make a move "before and after" T-giving day..I'll use my free IFT to G the day after...And then take a breather and see what the seasonality holds for the markets in DEC...Wish I had your stones.

 

[Bullitt]

Did the AGG breakout on the weekly chart? MACD showing good convergence, RSI (not shown) still not overbought and volume good but not sure if it's good enough.

View attachment 9227

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, the 10-year yield is at 3.37%

 

[350zCommTech]

Wow, the 10-year yield is at 3.37%

Time to refinance that mortgage.

 

[Bullitt]

Better do it soon, shooting star candle in AGG could possibly lead to a false break out.

 

[malyla]

I'm a little confused. The interest on the 10 and 30 year bonds is up (a Lot), but the AGG is also up. They should be inverse.

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm a little confused. The interest on the 10 and 30 year bonds is up (a Lot), but the AGG is also up. They should be inverse.

Yup, it's off today. F fund should be down 6 cents.