F Fund Confusion

[Rolo]

imported post

Pete1 wrote:

mrhaslam, there is no such thing as a dumb or retarded question.

Only dumb people who ask questions...bahaha.

Seriously...as for me, reading, asking questions, and reading discussions is how I best learn. Some of us are newer than you think (right, Frizz? hehe). Also, do not doubt yourself just because you are new at it--that has been my worst problem with myself.

azanon wrote:

Frizz, if that comment was related to my response to Rolo, dont sweat that; he knows i pick on him for fun.

Ya! Az and I chat in IM, too; we have productive and fun discussions...about investing and cars. It may not be evident, but he is a great counterbalance to keep me from going off the deep end. Hopefully, I motivate his interest in becoming more aggressive, and profitable. If nothing else, we chuckle it up pretty well.

mrhaslam wrote:

Oh yeah, I am currently invested in the F fund.I decided to make the move a couple of weeks ago when it wasdown around $9.94. To a green investor like me,it seemed as if I made a good move.I am very excited about the gain, but from your comments, I am not at all excited about the slidethatmight take place.

I have made some brilliant moves and some pretty stupid ones; you will never bat 1.000. I told myself a long time ago, no matter how my moves worked out, if I was confident that it seemed to be the best move at the time, then so be it. The only moves (or decisions to stay) with which I was unhappy are the ones with which I did not fully trust myself and did not follow my instincts.

Frizz B. wrote:

Is that fague, (cough, Rolo cough, kool), enough for youROLO, you once mentioned that I answer questions without really answering the question, and thanks, for not using my :dude:. LOL

hahaha...funny. OK, so what is it with putting my name in all CAPS? All sorts of people do that and I can even here the tone, for they say it that way IRL...it is annunciated louder, and the O's are emphasised. Too funny!

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

mlk_man wrote:

Pete1 wrote:

Rolo, as I said once before, if you can do it consistently, market it. Or better yet, keep it a secret so that it will keep working.

I've thought about this sentiment before and in my eyes, the more people that follow "my system"the better for me, is it not? If everyone "buys" when I buy, then the higher and the quicker the prices go up. And if everyone "sells" when I sell, tthe lower and the quicker the prices fall so the sooner I can get backk in.

Am I wrong in this assumption?

The jails are full of people who do just that. They had to change the rules (SEC rules I believe) to keep money managers from being able to tout a stock (or a system) that gives a buy signal, the stock jumps, the money manager bails. Used to happen all the time and probably still does.

I know that's not what you are doing, but I've heard Cramer from thestreet.com say that if he mentions a stock that he likes and he already he owns it, he can't sell for 5 days.

I've wondered how much of an influence we are having. The TSP Talk Email Alert now has over 1600 members. If only 20% of the people who get that email act on it, and the average account size is say $50,000, then that is $16 million being moved. :shock: Not much for Wall Street but pretty significant, and that may be a low estimate.

 

[Pete1]

imported post

mlkman, there is some merit to your sentiment. Pundits on CNBCconstantly attempt to bid up the price of "hot" stocks that they already own and dump them after telling suckers to buy them. Rolo's John Q. is the most likely investor to be victimized by this con game.

However, you are talking about an attempt to legitimately time the market and help others do so, quite a difference than the average CNBC pundit. My contention is that if you become the herd, your system will no longer work. I guess I fall into the contrarian camp on this.

 

[Guest]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

I've wondered how much of an influence we are having. The TSP Talk Email Alert now has over 1600 members. If only 20% of the people who get that email act on it, and the average account size is say $50,000, then that is $16 million being moved. :shock: Not much for Wall Street but pretty significant, and that may be a low estimate.

Wow, now that's pressure! :shock:

 

[Rolo]

imported post

mlk_man wrote:

Wow, now that's pressure! :shock:

hahaha! Yeah, don't choke on us, Tom!

(I can play my guitars OK in private and a little better in front of people, but I totaly get retarded whenever I am being recorded! :%)

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Rolo wrote:

Oy...I am buying another house to move into by November, possibly sooner. Any tips or advice regarding securing the best rate/price and timing?

It looks like a good day to lock in a mortgage rate. Bondyields are way down.

 

[rokid]

imported post

I found this interesting article by DFA's David Plecha: http://www.dfaus.com/strategies/fixed/

Mr. Plecha claims that no one can reliably forecast interest rates. Consequently,and according to Eugene Fama, the current maturity yield curve provides the best estimate of future yields. Rising maturity yields (see the optimal maturities graph) indicate you should go longer in bonds, e.g. five years, declining yields indicate you should go short, e.g. two years.

Obviously, if you need a portion of your money immediately, bonds make sense. However, as a long term, "buy and hold" investor I've been trying to figure out why I need bonds in my portfolio at all. Since bonds depress returns over the long term, theirpurpose,to the extent that theycontinue to non-correlate to stocks,must be to moderate portfolio volatility and preventme from panicking and doing something stupid in a bear stock market.

Finally, I back tested my current allocation, which includes bonds,for the pasteleven years. Sure enough, the returns weren't nearly as volatile as a 100% equity portfolio. Unfortunately, the compounded return was also lower, i.e. no free lunch!

 

[Mike]

imported post

Why bonds? Look at the rates of return for each fund during the bear market. Only G and F came out ahead there.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Mike wrote:

Why bonds? Look at the rates of return for each fund during the bear market. Only G and F came out ahead there.

I'm not sure I understand your post. Are you suggesting that we should be in the G and F funds right now? :?

 

[smine]

imported post

I agree. S is losing our money by the buckets. At least G and F made some Friday. I moved out of those stocks earlier, after seeing money poor out. Now most all is in G. I cut losses long ago. So did the rest of us here. It would be great if we bought really low, like now, but it just keeps going lower. Good luck to all you adventuresome people; for me, it's the safety of G.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

smine wrote:

Good luck to all you adventuresome people; for me, it's the safety of G.

By adventuresome do mean :dah:?

I can understand that. July hasn't been much fun.

 

[smine]

imported post

Yeah. Kicked myself end of June after Greenspud spoke and Iraq transfered(causing soring market) and I was out of it all, but had 2K more than now. So, worse to be in and losing $ or out and not making $?? losing money is worse! If we ever see the end of this drop will "buy low."