EW_ret Account Talk

[EW_ret]

Sell I Fund

I made IFT today (4-4-2006) to 75% G, 5% F, 15% C, 5% S, and 0% I. This sell my I fund position. European component of I fund is up due to weak dollar so I 'am taken profits.

The U.S. markets are uncertain at 12:00 pm deadline, but I expect strength to show up in the afternoon. The opposite of what happened yesterday when morning strength was sold in afternoon. If this happens, I fund could have FV day up to compensate for heavy afternoon buying of foreign stocks.

 

[EW_ret]

Moving to Safety of G Fund

I made IFT today (4-5-2006) to 100% G. This sells the remaining shares of C, S, and F funds and moves all to G fund. This move goes against majority of TSP Talk members who are buying more C, S, and/or I funds today.

The U.S. markets are uncertain at 12:00 pm deadline, but I expect strength this afternoon. This provides good opportunity to sell into the strength and move to the safety of G fund. The markets are at or above highs of the past month. I expect the S%P 500 to fall over the next week.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 4-11-2006 to 60% G and 40% L2020. This has an allocation of 71.4%G, 3.2% F, 13.3% C, 4.7% S, 7.4% I. This IFT increases the equity and bond positions by 33%. I made initial foray into the L 2020 fund last week (4-6-2006) with a 30% stake. Hindsight: Wish I made smaller initial purchase last week (10% or 15%). The markets have been sliding down since I eased back into equities.

 

[EW_ret]

Going For Cover

I made IFT at COB on 4-13-2006 to 100% G. This sells the 40% position in L 2020. The S&P 500 ended near its 50 day MA support yesterday and could fall below that point today. As Tom pointed out in today's comments, next Monday has 90% chance of going lower if S&P 500 finishes below its 50 day MA support today. I don't want to be in equities for the weekend. I have a feeling something is about to happen in world events that will have a negative impact. The price of gasoline is going up around here almost every day. This has me very concerned about consumer confidence. I feel like "Louise, I feel the big one coming on". But, then again the markets could be strong enough to climb my big wall of worry.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I keep hearing about that 90% chance IF the S&P falls below its 50 day, but what if it does'nt? Then what are the odds?
Anyone?

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 4-17-2006 to 70% G and 30% L2020. This is 78.5%G, 2.4% F, 10% C, 3.5% S, 5.6% I. I am moving from 100% G back into a small equity position. Looks like today will finish little changed, but hard to tell ay 12:00 pm. The European markets are closed today for holiday. The price of oil is now above $71/bl and this has me concerned.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 4-18-2006 to 90% G and10% L2020. This is 92.8%G, 0.8% F, 3.3% C, 1.2% S, 1.9% I. I am reducing equity position by 66% because markets are strong at 12:00 pm. The price of oil is near $72/bl and this has me concerned.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 4-20-2006 to 70% G and 30% F. This sells my 10% position in L 2020 and buys 30% F. I anticipate a short-term rise in bond prices. At COB Friday I will likely go to 100% G, unless markets are falling hard by 12 pm tomorrow.

The price of oil was near $73/bl, but has fallen below $72/bl. The local gas prices have risen to $2.859/gal (87% Oct), as of yesterday. This is a 0.259/gal rise in the last week. We may look back in fond memories next year about the good old days when gas was only $3 a gallon.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 4-28-2006 to 100% G. This sells my 30% position in F. I will be away for a week or two without access to the Internet so I am playing it safe until I return.

The local gas prices remain at $2.859/gal (87% Oct) for past ten days. I am going to trade in my Jeep for something better on gas. I see many big cars and SUVs for sale now. The Japanese automakers are introducing their subcompacts in US markets. These are small, gasoline-burning, 40 mpg highway cars. I test-drove a Toyota YARIS a few weeks ago. It does not have much get-up (1.5 lit four) with five adults, but its efficient for transportation. The instrument cluster is in the center of the dash.

 

[LA_Guy]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

$2.86/gal is very cheap comparing to $3.20 here in LA. No wonder those politicians in Virginia hasn't feel the effect of high fuel cost yet.

 

[nnuut]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

$6.85 a gal. in London!!! BBBAHHHhhh!

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 5-09-2006 to 100% G. This sells my 20% position in F that I bought at COB on 5-3-2006. I remain away from home for a second week with access to the Internet over a slow dial up account.

The local gas prices have dropped $0.12/gal in the past week. Regular now goes for $2.739/gal (87% Oct). This is good news, bur still too high for my comfort. We are entering the seasonal poor period for stocks, and better for bonds. The Fed will likely increase the short rates to 5% tomorrow. I expect the longer bond rates to increase over the next few weeks otherwise lending/borrowing will slow.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 5-16-2006 to 60% G, 20% C, and 20% S. This adds 5% to both C and S that I bought COB yesterday. I arrived back home Sunday, after being away for two weeks.

The local gas prices have risen in the past two weeks, but oil has dropped below $70/bl. Regular is now at $2.829/gal (87% Oct). This is too high for my comfort. We have entered the seasonal poor period for stocks. The Fed increased the short rates to 5% last week.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 5-19-2006 to 40% G, 25% C, 25% S, and 10% I fund. This adds 5% to both C and S, and buys 10% into the I fund.

Where is the bottom? Will it be near 1250 for S&P 500, or a deeper consolidation below 1200? What will get this market out of its inflation funk? Perhaps I should have just gotten out today with a loss. I was unlucky at getting into C/S on Monday (5-15) when the market continued its downward spiral. Now I feel compelled to increase my exposure to C/S/I hoping for a bounce. :embarrest:

The local gas prices have remained unchanged, but oil has dropped below $69/bl. Regular remains at $2.829/gal (87% Oct).

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 5-22-2006 to 30% G, 30% C, and 40% S fund. This adds 5% to C, 15% to S, and sells 10% in I fund. I see further downside to the I fund from our market slide today. I expect about 1.5% drop in the I fund today and a FV day that will ease the pain.

Where is the bottom to these markets? This starts the third week of consolidation. Will S&P 500 stabilize near 1252, or is a deeper consolidation below 1200 in the cards? I feel compelled to increase my exposure to C and S in hopes for a bounce later this week. :embarrest:

The local gas prices have come down 0.05/gal the past few days, and oil has dropped below $68/bl. Regular gas is at $2.779/gal (87% Oct).

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 5-24-2006 to 40% C, 40%, and 20% I fund. This adds 10% to C and buys 20% of I fund.

Where is the bottom to these markets? This is the third week of consolidation. Will S&P 500 stabilize near 1252, or is a deeper consolidation below 1200 in the cards? I am accelerating my exposure to equities while they are dropping to initiate recommendations from a new financial plan

I am in the process of readjusting my investment portfolio to achieve a 55/35/10 allocation (equity/bonds/cash). I was at 32/7/61 a month ago (4-19-2006), and now I am at 42/11/47. This readjustment originates from a free financial plan that I ordered from Vanguard last month. I will talk with a Vanguard CFP tomorrow. My exposure to equities and bonds had really sunk to an all time low over the past year. I find myself becoming risk adverse since I retired last year.

I should have waited a few more weeks before increasing my equity exposure. I am trying to buy more equities on the dips, but the markets keep falling. Oh well, hindsight does not help the queasy feeling of seeing my portfolio drop on daily basis. My timing on purchasing international funds is downright poor. I opened a new position in Vanguard Total International Index last Friday and Monday it fell 2.27%. :embarrest:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

Chances are when you look back in 30 days you will have wished you had another $200,000 to put to work. These corrections happen periodically and can actually be an opportunity. You are on the right track.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

Thanks for the encouragement Birchtree.

I know this change in asset allocation is good for the long term. Its just painful while the markets are dropping. My initial strategy was to slowly dollar cost average to the target allocation over six months. However, I have accelerated the buying the past two weeks because the markets were falling.

I do not need these retirement funds until forced to at age 701/2 (13 years). I need at least a moderate risk level (50-60% equities) for growth. Perhaps I should look to the new Vanguard model for their Target Retirement funds. The Vanguard Target 2015 Retirement fund is moving from 46/54 to 67/33 (Equity/Bonds). The year the fund matures the asset allocation hits 50/50, and ten years after target date it levels out at 30/65/5. Vanguard's old retirement fund model was much more conservative.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 6-5-2006 to 80% G, 10% S, and 10% I. On hindsight, I wish I had stayed with my equity position for the remainder of last week. Instead, I used my gut feelings, and bailed to G fund last Tuesday. Got whipsawed and took a loss of 1.6% Tuesday, only to see the markets recovery the next two days. I was worried that there was going to be further weakness through the week.

My strategy is to ease back into equities this week

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB on 6-7-2006 to 60% G, 10% C, 10% S, and 20% I. This sells 5% of C fund, 10% of S fund, and buys 5% more I and 10% more G fund. I am expecting C and S funds to end the day positive. The I fund would end negative more than -1% if FV of -$0.23 is added from yesterday's performance (i.e. 6-6-06: MSCI EAFE -2.92%. but I fund -1.7%). Of course the FV adjustment may be deferred until tomorrow, when MSCI EAFE should finish up.


My strategy is to ease back into equities this week, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-60% in G fund.