EW_ret Account Talk

[EW_ret]

Remain in G Fund

I remain 100% in the G Fund. Waiting for the S&P 500 to fall below 1260. It may be a while before it falls that far so I will buy a small amount of C and I if it approaches 1270.

 

[EW_ret]

Where are U.S. Stock Markets Heading?

I made IFT COB 3-03-2006 to 94% G, 3% C, 1% S, and 2% I. I am waiting for further U.S. market weakness before buying more. My patience is wearing thin waiting for the S&P 500 to drop below 1260. Will it test 1281today? Will the S&P 500 fall below 1270 next week?

 

[EW_ret]

Fourth Down Day Buy On The Dip

I made IFT COB 3-07-2006 to 90% G, 5% C, 2% S, and 3% I. The markets are showing weakness so I am buying 4% more equities. This move increases my equity positions; C by 66%, S by 100% and I by 50%.

I am still in a good position (90% G) to buy more on any continued weakness. Will the S&P500 test 1270 today? Will it test 1260, or lower, later this week? Is this the consolidation we have been waiting for to get back in the markets? These are questions that everyone wants to know.
:nuts:

 

[EW_ret]

Fifth Consecutive Down Day For Markets?

I made IFT COB 3-08-2006 to 85% G, 8% C, 4% S, and 3% I. The markets continue to show weakness so I am buying 5% more equities. This move increases my equity positions; C by 60%, and S by 100%.

The S&P500 tested 1268 today and started to recover after 12:00 pm EDT. Is this the consolidation we have been waiting for to get back in the markets? Am I too anxius in buying the markets?

I am trying to get a lower average price by making incremental buys (3%-6%). If this is a true consolidation for the markets, it will likely take weeks, or months, to reach bottom. Buying too often may not result in the best average price. Maybe I need a rule, like wait for a 1% drop, before making another 5% buy.

 

[EW_ret]

Best Keep Some Eggs In Every Basket

ROTH_TSP,

A Roth TSP option would be a good thing for all federal employees. But, I do not see it happening anytime soon. When I was working I saved the maximum allowed in both my TSP account and Roth IRA. I agree that taxes in future can only go up, so a ROTH is a good thing.

I thought about rolling over my TSP account, or a portion, to my Vanguard IRA account. But, then I could not have any fun with playing the market. Vanguard has rules on selling equity and bond funds. I will not open a brokerage account because of the expenses, and having to pay a commission with each trade.

I will likely compromise and rollover 100K or so to Vanguard, and leave the remaining in TSP to have fun. This would protect me from myself. :laugh:

 

[EW_ret]

Will Markets Finish Up Or Down Today?

I made IFT COB 3-09-2006 to 94% G, 3% C, 1% S, and 2% I. I am selling into the modest market strength, as of 12:00 pm EDT. I expect weakness in markets tomorrow that a good jobs report will bring. The recent concern is interest rates rising, and a strong job report will reinforce expectations that the Fed will continue raising short rates.

The S&P500 is having trouble getting above 1283 today. Is this a sign of a laggard market that Tom spoke of in his comments today? The consolidation we have been waiting for may be soon at hand. The markets just went to break even after 12:15 pm. Selling today may not have been a good thing to do. Oh well, can’t win all the time. They may still finish in the green by 4:00 pm.

 

[EW_ret]

Called It Wrong Yesterday

Well, the U.S. markets finished in red yesterday. I sold my 8% in C and S for a small loss. The I fund's 1.15% gain helped cushion the blow. :embarrest:

I made IFT COB today selling remaining equity position to 100% G. I expected this strength yesterday and weakness today with a good jobs report. I sure called that one wrong!

Has market psychology changed, or did the majority think as I did yesterday? The Fed will likely continue raising short rates to 5.5%, and the markets will be subdued for a while. I have recently lightened up on all my bond funds and will buy back in incrementally over the next 18 months.

 

[EW_ret]

Time For Bonds to Rally Some

I ordered IFT for COB 3-13-2006 to 80% G and 20% F. Bonds do look set for short term rebound. The 10-year Treasury bond is near 4.8%. I just cannot commit more than 20% of my TSP account to bounds. I’ am averse to go more than 30% into a single fund. I will likely stay in F Fund for a few days.

 

[EW_ret]

Stock and Bond Prices Rising

I ordered IFT for COB 3-16-2006 to 100% G. Bonds have rebounded strongly the past few days and its time to sell my 20% F Fund position. The 10-year Treasury bond was near 4.79% when I bought Monday and today is around 4.65%.

It’s too bad I did not also buy some C and S Monday because equities have also risen strongly the past few days.

Does the correlation between bond and stocks turn positive when interest rates rise? Market talk says the equity prices are rising because bonds are rallying because inflation is tame. Who is buying U.S. treasury bonds today? Is this causing bond prices to rise, and yields to go down?

 

[mlk_man]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

EWGuy, you posted your move 41 minutes after the deadline. I've given you lots of leeway already. Is there a reason you aren't able to post by the deadline?

M_M

 

[EW_ret]

I'am Just Slow

MlkMan,

I was waiting to see what moves you would make today. You posted so near the 12:00 pm mark. Then I started reading other posts and just lost track of the time. I also type real slow because I only use two fingers.

I do believe this is the first time I have posted beyond the 12:30 pm deadline, which I believe you use. I have posted a few minutes beyond 12:00 pm a number of times. Is this what you mean by giving me slack?

The price of bonds did not change much between 11:40 am, when I made the change at TSP.gov, and 12:41 pm, when I finally posted my IFT move at TSPTalk. If you want to log my 20% F Fund move to G for March 17 that’s fine. It makes little difference to me because I know I made the IFT at COB on March 16.

 

[mlk_man]

Re: I'am Just Slow

MlkMan,

I was waiting to see what moves you would make today. You posted so near the 12:00 pm mark. Then I started reading other posts and just lost track of the time. I also type real slow because I only use two fingers.

I do believe this is the first time I have posted beyond the 12:30 pm deadline, which I believe you use. I have posted a few minutes beyond 12:00 pm a number of times. Is this what you mean by giving me slack?

The price of bonds did not change much between 11:40 am, when I made the change at TSP.gov, and 12:41 pm, when I finally posted my IFT move at TSPTalk. If you want to log my 20% F Fund move to G for March 17 that’s fine. It makes little difference to me because I know I made the IFT at COB on March 16.

The deadline in noon EST. I grant a little leeway once in awhile but if one is consistantly late, what's the point of tracking? It doesn't do anyone any good...................

 

[EW_ret]

Increase My Equity Exposure

I made IFT today (3-17-2006) to 25% G, 10% F, 25% C, 15% S, and 25% I. I am jumping into the markets with SPAF, who in normally quite risk adverse. My move is contrary to most others today who are moving to the G Fund. I will likely stay with this moderate allocation while waiting for the S&P 500 to hit 1400.

I started a Rollover IRA account at Vanguard two days ago, and will fund it with a transfer from my TSP account. I am taking Vanguard up on their offer for a free financial plan for anyone bringing in at least $100,000 into a Vanguard account by April 30th. I would like their opinion/recommendation on the equity allocation for retired federal employee, age 57, who does not need his investment income until at least age 62. I believe my CSRS pension is sufficient to live on for the next five years. It has been so far, but I am new to retirement life.

 

[EW_ret]

Following S&P500 To 1400

I made IFT today (3-20-2006) to 20% G, 5% F, 30% C, 20% S, and 25% I. I am adding to C and S and reducing my F positions. I hope to stay with this allocation while waiting for the S&P 500 to hit 1400.

 

[EW_ret]

Will We Wait For S&P500 Of 1400?

I made IFT today (3-21-2006) to 10% G, 5% F, 30% C, 25% S, and 30% I. I am adding to my S and I positions.

I foresee a market pullback soon, perhaps starting next month. We should have one more push higher, followed by a big move down, then volatile consolidation lasting until November.

This is year two of a presidential term. The second and third quarters of year two tend to be very weak. The fourth quarter of year two, and first and second quarter of year three are up big-time (more than 20%). [Ref: "Tough 6 Months For Stocks", By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer March 21, 2006: 12:00 PM EST].

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT today (3-22-2006) to 20% G, 0% F, 30% C, 20% S, and 30% I. I sold all F and 5% of S and moved it to G. I do not see much room for bonds to advance, unless there is a major down slide in equities. I sold 5% S fund, which I bought yesterday, to capture the gains that the market may give us today. I am holding off selling any I fund because it looks to be flat, or down today.

 

[EW_ret]

Buying The Weakness

I made IFT today (3-27-2006) to 25% G, 0% F, 30% C, 20% S, and 25% I. This increases my equity positions by 5% in C, S and I Funds. I am preparing for the opposite of a normal last week of March. The final week of March is normally weak, so I expect strength. :nuts:

The wild card is the release of the Federal Reserve policy meeting tomorrow afternoon. How will the markets react to the minutes and our new Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke?

 

[EW_ret]

Lighten Up Equity Position

I made IFT today (3-30-2006) to 65% G, 5% F, 15% C, 5% S, and 10% I. This decreases my equity positions by 15% in C, S and I Funds. Buying a little F fund as insurance against a sharp market fall.

I don't see much upside potential in the markets for the short-term. Just range bound between 1295 and 1310 for a while, then a big correction. Oil prices are rising and with summer driving season around the corner and gas prices can only go up. The longer-term bonds prices have fallen, yields going up. I expect the 10-year Treasury bond yield will approach 5%, since the short-term bonds are rising to 4.8%.

 

[EW_ret]

Re: EWGuy Account Talk

I made IFT at COB today (3-31-2006) to 50% G, 0% F, 30% C, 10% S, and 10% I. This sells the F fund strength and buys the C and S fund weakness. The I fund is a big unknown due to FV pricing the past three days. It should be down about 0.8%, but could end unchanged or down 1.5% to make up for the past three days.

I am doing the opposite of most at TSPTalk who are running to the G Fund to catch the penny. The first week of Arpril, spring is in the air, everybody feels good, and maybe a run-up of the markets. Wishful thinking?

 

[EW_ret]

Sell Half Into Market Strength

I made IFT today (4-3-2006) to 70% G, 5% F, 15% C, 5% S, and 5% I. This decreases my equity positions by 50% in C, S and I Funds. Market appears strong at the deadline so I 'am taken some profits. Buying 5% F fund as insurance against a market fall tomorrow.

The market strength may not last, but I hope it finishes positive. I think it’s the spring effect taken hold and people feel good. I’ am on vacation this week in Denver and Steamboat Springs, Colorado. I brought my notebook to stay in touch.