EricDeLee's account talk

[EricDeLee]

Nothing but jibber-ish here ... At least for now.
I did an IFT late Friday (I don't know if that was good enough to count today's market action or not). I was sitting at about 55% G fund, 35% F fund, and the rest in the S fund. I had all of that switched to 25% in the C fund, 65% in the S fund and the rest in the I fund.

Not sure what I am doing yet and will need solid advice along the way. Also need advice on wife's 401k

 

[imike023]

Nothing but jibber-ish here ... At least for now.
I did an IFT late Friday (I don't know if that was good enough to count today's market action or not). I was sitting at about 55% G fund, 35% F fund, and the rest in the S fund. I had all of that switched to 25% in the C fund, 65% in the S fund and the rest in the I fund.

Not sure what I am doing yet and will need solid advice along the way. Also need advice on wife's 401k

If it was after 12pm Friday it does not count since Monday was a holiday and the tsp offices were closed. It goes into affect tomorrow.Ask any questions you have I know someone will help ya

 

[EricDeLee]

If it was after 12pm Friday it does not count since Monday was a holiday and the tsp offices were closed. It goes into affect tomorrow.Ask any questions you have I know someone will help ya

Thanks for the comment.
I think you are correct because with yesterday's goo day, I lost $1.30 in my TSP account. Lol. So I am assuming it went into effect agter the close of the market. Oh well.


quetions:
where can I find my monthly gains in TSP? What about up-to-date quarterly gains (before the statement comes out)

right now I am at only 4.32% gain for the year. Can't wait to get that percentage up. I was wrong about my earlier allocations. Here's where I currently am:

35% c fund
45% s fund
20% I fund

any suggestions out there for using another may IFT? Should I move out of I fund and put a heavy load in the S Fund?

 

[nnuut]

Welcome to the Forum EricDeLee.
Best of luck
Norman

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks for the comment.
I think you are correct because with yesterday's goo day, I lost $1.30 in my TSP account. Lol. So I am assuming it went into effect agter the close of the market. Oh well.


quetions:
where can I find my monthly gains in TSP? What about up-to-date quarterly gains (before the statement comes out)

right now I am at only 4.32% gain for the year. Can't wait to get that percentage up. I was wrong about my earlier allocations. Here's where I currently am:

35% c fund
45% s fund
20% I fund

any suggestions out there for using another may IFT? Should I move out of I fund and put a heavy load in the S Fund?

Eric, imike023 made a good observation. For your IFT's. If you make a change before noon Eastern time then it takes effect that evening. If you make a change after 12:00pm Eastern it will take effect the following day after 4:00pm Eastern. Now, not to confuse you but lets say you do an IFT today after 12:00pm Eastern, you can cancel that IFT as long as you do it before 12:00pm Eastern tomorrow.

 

[MrBowl]

Eric,

To get your monthly gains there are different approaches. I tend to just go to the tsp.gov site and check the balance for different dates. That, however, includes contributions so it might not be the best answer for what you want. I like this website, tsptalk.com, because you can track your actual % gain on the Auto Tracker. Its a great program, and measuring yourself against others provides a lot of feedback and perspective about just how well you can do in the TSP.

My philosophy, although I'm still not living by it yet, is that it is possible to get really incredible yearly returns by just making 4-8 moves per year. TSPTalk is about learning the signals and seeing the signs of market turns. Nobody ever gets them all the way right, but that's the goal. There are many here that provide very good technical analysis that will help you see the turning points. But beware, the market always seeks to exert maximum frustration. In this era of QE the rules have been quite distorted. I think the worst rule that we are subject to is the 4 hr time lag when we make an IFT. I've had small monthly gains turn into a monthly loss in those 4 hrs and with no more IFTs left till the next month to make the $ back.

The G and F funds are supposed to be the funds of safety, but a short visit to the F fund can be quite a disappointment, like this month. For me, I am going to only get in the F fund if I plan on being out of the stock funds for more than a month. Some of the same Technical Analysis rules that apply to the stock funds can also apply to the F fund though, so after being beat down for awhile it would have more of a potential upside.

The I fund is also very risky. In May of 2010 I lost 10% in the I fund in 3 days! I never recovered and was down 22-23% at one point, and ended the year way negative. You are at the mercy of many foreign economies, plus the changing value of the dollar. That being said, sometimes the gains in the I fund are fantastic. I do take the bait sometimes.

 

[Scout333]

Eric, there are a number of spreadsheets which are used to calculate return on investments, etc. Tom has a nice one in the Utilities section on the first page of the site. The link below is to another spreadsheet that I use. Works best if you start at the beginning of the year. Open it up and check the Tips tab before you get started.

http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/Scouts_Spreadsheet.xls

 

[nasa1974]

Eric, send me a PM with your email and I will send you a copy of my excel spreadsheet.

Marty

 

[EricDeLee]

I sent you a PM... Thanks. I look forward to checking it out.

 

[EricDeLee]

So watching the markets for probably some of the first time with real interest this week was pretty interesting. I made a few changes regarding my IFTs for May, as I wanted to get a feel for that for the upcoming months. I still don't know a lot about this stuff, but took my lumps yesterday, and then turned around and watched it come back to me today (not completely, but that's okay. So tracking a little bit, I lost -0.82% yesterday when everything was down down down. I was curious as to how that was going to turn out, and was really worried when I saw a comment that people should lump back into the G Fund as a down-trend was expected for Thursday and Friday. But then the Futures went up. Someone gave me a link to that yesterday, but I couldn't make sense of it. Instead of using that safety net, I decided to see how today was. Gained 0.57 on the account. So I can't complain too much.

So far... it is pretty cool to actually see what can effect our TSP account, and what doesn't I had no freakin' clue in the past.
I still don't have a clue, but I know what to watch on my iphone.

 

[EricDeLee]

let's talk chess moves:
A lot of people are saying there will be a small upward trend for the month of June. a couple are saying no. I also noticed historical data for 1JUN and now wonder if it is a safer move to do an IFT and drop everything into the G Fund tomorrow, and then adjust everything on the 4th. Or simply ride the storm and see what happens over the historical number of 1JUN (which I assume is really 3JUN, since 1JUN is Saturday).

Also... I've heard of a chess moves of throwing 100% at S Funds from Mid November to late April, and then switching to G Funds for the remainder time. Historically over 10 years, it seems to have a 11.9% average. That's a lot better than my 3-4% I have been earning and wondered what others think. Although... it still seems like a bit of buy and hold method. What do you guys think....
I believe that has left me a lot to ponder.

 

[ILoveTDs]

We are in an uptrend, but June is traditionally a weak month -- conundrum.

 

[Birchtree]

June of 2012 allowed my oceanic account to take in +$286K and I'm planning on June 2013 to beat that amount. So June can be very profitable.

 

[EricDeLee]

June of 2012 allowed my oceanic account to take in +$286K and I'm planning on June 2013 to beat that amount. So June can be very profitable.

I don't know anything about an oceanic account... LOL I am assuming that's involves diving into buying actual stocks (not TSP stuff). Yes... I used a bad pun there....
I am looking to learn more in that stuff, but I'm trying to figure out the TSP stuff first.

Birchtree... if you'd like to help me out on where to get started... perhaps a little bit of solid advice... that would be greatly appreciated.

NOTE: What I need help with as well is to know WHAT to look for as indicators for what the market should do or can do. Someone mentioned that Chicago's PMI exploded higher than expected. How does that effect the market? How wouold I know to look for that bit of information to begin with?

(I'm glad you guys are being patient with me on this stuff. I am reading what I can, but there's a lot to it as well. I think I need a Cliff Notes version!! LOL)

 

[Birchtree]

Don't try to learn everything at once - you have plenty of time. I'm an old dog at this game starting in 1971 and I'm still learning while I make money. You will find that the point difference in our TSP funds are usually not enough to make serious money unless you have multi-thousands of shares on the line. So learn before you churn and build your base and then you'll be ready to earn more dollars for retirement. Some of our tracker gain percentages may not actually mean much if the pockets are shallow.

 

[EricDeLee]

Yep... That's understood. While I like the fact I can throw money into the TSP, I also know that I need to toss it around elsewhere. But I'm a bit skeptical until I learn the system a bit more. But taking my time with it may be the best advice. I've built a little bit of the base by adding more into the TSP, but I also know I need to branch out sometime soon.

 

[EricDeLee]

Not doing so hot this far. I still feel like I should be staying right here mainly in the S Fund, but now the I find is looking a little nice. Lol. I think I just need to be patient to see if I can increase my earnings. Since 29May I've lost .98% which kind of stinks. Lol

 

[Scout333]

Not doing so hot this far. I still feel like I should be staying right here mainly in the S Fund, but now the I find is looking a little nice. Lol. I think I just need to be patient to see if I can increase my earnings. Since 29May I've lost .98% which kind of stinks. Lol

Eric, Be careful here. Its always tempting to go after the hottest fund of the day! Its called chasin". Kind of like high school. Going after the hottest girl in school! Make a plan and stick with it! JMHO

 

[EricDeLee]

Eric, Be careful here. Its always tempting to go after the hottest fund of the day! Its called chasin". Kind of like high school. Going after the hottest girl in school! Make a plan and stick with it! JMHO

I never did much in the way of chasing and don't plan to now. Where I'd love to make 20% gains, I'd be happy with just grabbing 3% or so a month. Actually 2%. Lol. It all adds up in the end. I want to beat 4% quarterly gains. That's about all.

 

[Scout333]

Note to self. Follow my own advice!