Epic's Account Talk

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Hey thanks DBA. I know Flawlaw97 and Coolhand both cover NAAIM so I just post up the charts from the site when I can remember to (along with the source link / ​said for legal purposes.... LOL). I like the eye candy visuals.
Speaking of which....... I tried to post this yesterday as well, but the AAII site mistook me for a Bot. I tried a few times, but no luck. That's never happened. :dunno:
It's fine today though, so ...........:D
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

AAII-1-18-23.PNG

..
 
Looks like the bears are trying to take back the gains made last week. Hopefully we can end the week on a positive note.
 
Yeah ..... I hear ya. Keeping my fingers crossed for you.
So we have both NAAIM and AAII showing a more modestly positive outlook moving forward than the last 4 weeks which is a good thing, and yet on the flip side the term "Global Recession" keeps creeping up in so much of what I hear and see.
The Debt Ceiling is certainly in the news at the moment, along with the continued insane spending, Putin's Nuclear threats, Ukraine, blah, blah, blah, blah........ So who knows???
I see the nice gains that some have made this month and I'm jealous, but I have no guts to try and play this market with my TSP funds quite yet. Last year at this time the market went strait down, and I was in denial and got caught. That was horrible:sick:
When I'm confident enough, I'll YOLO it all in 100%, but it's still too sketchy at the moment.
I've only been away from Federal Service for less than 2 years, so I'm not even drawing from TSP yet. I have a super simple lifestyle with almost zero expenses or overhead, and keep plenty busy with my own side ventures $$, so I'm content with G-Fund interest at the moment. :D

TruDat.PNG
 
I'm a little surprised that the debt ceiling hasn't had an effect on the market. But as we get closer to June and nothing is happening, I may have to take my losses and get out temporarily because it could get really ugly.
 
I wouldn't say it has not had an effect on the market.
Dollar down, most likely because of the Debt Ceiling. Oil/Fuel up because of the lagging dollar.
I fund has managed the down days better than the others due to the lagging dollar.

It's very possible when they come to an agreement on the debt ceiling the market will bounce back. For how long I don't know.
 
Just FYI / Interesting. . . .
(this is about 2 weeks old)

Microsoft reportedly plans to invest $10 billion in creator of buzzy A.I. tool ChatGPT
Microsoft will reportedly get a 75% share of OpenAI’s profits until it makes back the money on its investment, after which the company would assume a 49% stake in OpenAI.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/mic...on-in-chatgpt-creator-openai-report-says.html

This could prove to be a very smart investment opportunity for them that could pay off very well. Chat GPT is still in it's infancy and will be revised and improved upon for many years to come.
The possibilities are endless and it's already all over the news for what it can do. :D
 
Earning Season be like . . . . .

stock-market-stocks.gif
:laugh:
 
Whipsaw said:
Looks like it's about time to get in the pool. :scratchchin:
Click to expand...

I wish I would have jumped in a few weeks ago and rode it up, but this market is still too dam sketchy for my liking. Manipulation, Fake Pumps, and Algorithms. :blink:
If I was still contributing to my TSP, I'd be a much bigger risk taker like I used to be. Once you cross that line and are no longer putting in, your whole perspective on Risk/Reward changes. It took me a while to learn that and break my old habits.
I'll gladly wait till 2024 if I have to, when hopefully some of the previous "America First" and "American Independence" policies that were working so well before are reinstated, and that all of this absolutely insane spending and dependence on other countries is shut down.
There's Smart Money, and Dumb Money, and then there's the camp I'm in........... "Scared Money" :laugh::nuts:

10717194.jpg
 
Epic said:
I wish I would have jumped in a few weeks ago and rode it up, but this market is still too dam sketchy for my liking.
Click to expand...

Yea I share you're pain, but the truth (for me) is that many of my outside holdings are just holding, I haven't seen any serious gains in both my value or growth stocks. It sucks to play it safe, but like you, in the TSP I can't contribute, so I got what I got, and got to make it work.
 
JTH said:
many of my outside holdings are just holding, I haven't seen any serious gains in both my value or growth stocks.
Click to expand...

I'm the same. I have a small Fidelity account just to play with. I'm not a day trader at all. More of a swing trader I guess. Good solid picks with upward momentum that I can hold for a few days or a few weeks depending. I've gotten lucky a few times but I need to learn to take profits before they magically disappear. I'm still learning. Just keeping my head above water and staying out of the RED.
These 3 did good for me today, but others not so much. Overall I still ended up in the green today. Been researching ABR. I hear they pay good dividends. Still looking into it.

sa.PNG
 
My REIT holdings were a sink hole last year, I shed a few of the underperformers, still holding some, but I'm under my cost basis on all of them. In hindsight, I should have exited at the first sign there was going to be an interest rate hike, and waited to re-enter sometime after the rates start dropping.

I'm still not educated in this specialty, I didn't realize that... Paraphrasing... When interest rates rise, investors shift out of these sectors (utilities, REITs, and telecommunications companies) on the belief that they can gain a similar level of income (from bonds) without the risk that stocks present.

But bonds also went into the shitter, so what the hell does the internet know :)
 
I also have a few REIT holdings, they appear to trade in a fairly tight range - as long as they keep paying dividends, they'll come back up at some point and you'll be whole from an equity perspective.
 
Enjoyed that read.
Most folks look at the G Fund as a mattress, a place to keep their $ and not lose any value.
We've been spoiled the last 10-12 Years of fantastic returns if you played fast and loose with your TSP account and good returns if you just bought and held.

Surely no one wants to make a quarter % on their investment annually but it most assuredly has its place in investing, and we should be happy to have it as an option.
 
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