Stocks were mixed yesterday - the last day of trading in June and the second quarter. The Dow lost 25-points and the S&P was basically flat, but we saw the leading indices post decent gains. Small caps and the I-fund did well, and bonds were up.
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Here are the final TSP Fund returns for June and the current 2014 returns.
All the funds ended the month in the green, and it was a particularly nice month for the S-fund, which had been lagging in 2014.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) ended the day relatively flat with a small negative reversal bar, but nothing too alarming. The PMO indicator moved below its 10-day moving average and that's a bit of red flag.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) had a nice day on Monday, closing at a new high and hanging above that old March high line (blue). It is also remaining in the rising trading channel (red). As I mentioned last week, this is a holiday week and the light volume holiday trading could push this index to new highs, but I am less optimistic about it holding after the holiday - if it can hold this week. It's not wise to be bearish while stocks are slowly rising in a dull market, but I think this index needs a little more consolidation before new highs hold up for any length of time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is also in new high territory with a small negative reversal at yesterday's close. It appears to be a breakout but the handle of the cup and handle-like formation below is just too small to be considered a good enough consolidation, in my opinion.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index had a nice day yesterday and although it is small, the cup and handle formation on this chart is more proportional than the one on the QQQ above. Like I said, the C&H is small and a breakout wouldn't be huge, and if the handle on the QQQ above had a handle of similar proportion to this one below, the breakout could be big.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were up on Monday but the IEF is stalling a bit at the resistance areas I have been noting. I'm still waiting on this before deciding how I feel about bonds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Instead of the normal Friday release, the June jobs report will be announced on Thursday this week, because of the holiday. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 210,000 non-farm payroll jobs, and an unemployment rate of 6.3%. We have a "Guess the jobs report" contest going on in the forum. Click here for more information.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
