DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

interesting short article on a bottom.

A Bottom in Equities | Ed Carlson | Safehaven.com

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Looking at charts. Still doesn't look the best, but Slow Stochastic is looking sufficiently low. Would like to see RSI and MACD moving up but with a fast market could miss a quick short rally. I know options expire this Friday and that could cause a big down day. In any case, considering an entry now or Friday..... Decisions...decisions. Fridy would probably be most prudent....uggg...patience warranted???

I'm anxious to enter.... Anyone else considering entry here?????

Hope you are all well this evening, and Best wishes to you all on your Investments!!!!!! :smile:

C Fund

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


S Fund

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

 

[Whipsaw]

DBA, I'm on the fence. The screwdriver article I posted points to a bottom (short or long term?), still there is allot of doom and gloom out there. There may be a replay of August... small rally, sideways then down again. I have travel on for next week which complicates responsiveness for me. Futures are up...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DBA, I'm on the fence. The screwdriver article I posted points to a bottom (short or long term?), still there is allot of doom and gloom out there. There may be a replay of August... small rally, sideways then down again. I have travel on for next week which complicates responsiveness for me. Futures are up...

Thinking to wait until Friday... it would be most prudent especially since my indicator requirements have not yet been met. Very close though. I would like to see MACD turn up now before entry. Also the options expiring on Friday is a little concern.

So....by waiting until Friday I may lose some gains with that later entry, but I think I need to really follow my strategy this time... at least for the first month of the new year. But I find myself wanting to change my mind to get in now!!! ugghh...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Gosh... I wanna get in soooo bad!!!! Resist...resist... patience.... :headache:
Prudent to wait until Friday (options expiration! and wait for MACD to turn upward).... gosh I may need to sit on my hands.... going crazy!!!! :scared1:

I guess I should share a bit of information I heard on Maria Bartirromo [sic] on FBN very early this morning. Really just caught the tail end of it. But some guy was saying that the steep drop in oil prices happened as a result of legislation passed late December that allows US oil exports. Interesting take I had not heard.

Not exactly sure when that legislation passed but I do remember hearing about it a week or so before it was passed...maybe around Christmas or a little after...not sure. I wonder if the oil price drops accelerated when the news of that got out. Curious!!!

 

[Cactus]

Don't trust your feelings, DBA. Your emotions work against you in this game. That's why you have a system. It's number one benefit is counteracting your emotions.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thank you so much! :smile: That helps...Emotions do get in the way and I know I have never really allowed the system to rule... I keep getting in the way. I just don't want to miss out and that leads to getting overly anxious. I guess many of us do.... trying so hard to truly see what is in front of me... in those charts. No emotions on this. Its hard to do. You know I have heard this from others as well...to wait, but I just have that doubt there. ugghh.... tightly grasping that lilly pad..... Now... see..... I made it with a little help from my friends here on the forum!!!! (relief.....)

Best Wishes to you and everyone on your Investments!!!!! :smile:

Don't trust your feelings, DBA. Your emotions work against you in this game. That's why you have a system. It's number one benefit is counteracting your emotions.

 

[jpcavin]

Thank you so much! :smile: That helps...Emotions do get in the way and I know I have never really allowed the system to rule... I keep getting in the way. I just don't want to miss out and that leads to getting overly anxious. I guess many of us do.... trying so hard to truly see what is in front of me... in those charts. No emotions on this. Its hard to do. You know I have heard this from others as well...to wait, but I just have that doubt there. ugghh.... tightly grasping that lilly pad..... Now... see..... I made it with a little help from my friends here on the forum!!!! (relief.....)

Best Wishes to you and everyone on your Investments!!!!! :smile:

Good job, Sistah!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Was very busy at work this morning and missed the news on markets. So I missed out on making any changes. Had been thinking about entering the F fund, but oh well....no IFT today.

Seems to me there are lots of different takes on the market. Some staying in, some moving, others staying put. I'm still in that last category... Sitting on the lily pad and watching this brutal market from the sidelines.

Maybe it goes up this Coming week??

Don't know but Last night I read that some large banks will report large losses. JP Morgan and one other. One lost court case and ordered to pay out over $1B for improper housing/loan foreclosures back in 2007-2008? Article indicated it represented almost all net income for 2015, so its huge. I heard their earnings report comes out on January 20..... So that started to get me leery of entry next week.

As for markets today, it seems to be all about oil (but dont take your eyes off the China bubble). Caviuto reports that in Vienna meeting, the Atomic energy folks are indicating that sanctions will be lifted on Iran.
Iran has:
--10% of world's oil reserves/supply = 150 B Barrels
--daily peak of 6M, before revolution in 1976
--pre-sanction production is at 1.5M barrels/ day

In article read yesterday, others disagree that sanctions lift will have any immediate effect on oil market because they argue Iran's infrastructure and equipment is so old that it cannot reliably handle any immediate or significant increase in oil production. Seems to make sense, but markets are forward looking.

Hummmm......well all I can say is that the $150B dollars we are about to hand over to them (under that ridiculously stupid Iran deal that Obama made) should help Iran build oil infrastructure. Of course companies will be rushing to go help
Iran rebuild that to get their hands on that cash. Gosh ...I think my cynical cranky side is really starting to show.

Sorry folks! I need to lighten up...maybe fajitas and Margaritas or Mexican Martinis at Casa Garcia's tonight will help me get in a better mood....though the time with friends will be the best lift....woohoo....

Have a great weekend and best wishes to you all on your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[Tiger25]

Love the Mother Teresa quote Dreamboat Annie. Kinda like starting an I'm OK You're OK campaign with friends and framily and then it takes off like a wave in the football stadium. It's impossible to be mean when you are OK. OK? Happy Friday !!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi! Sticking in G for now. Been thinking about F fund. Maybe that is a better option durng this downtrend....?

Hope you are all having a good day! Best wishes!!!!!!!!!!:smile:

 

[FogSailing]

Hi DBA: Recently read that bonds are iffy if oil continues to tank. Wells Fargo has estimated that up to 30% of their energy loans could go underwater if oil tanks and that somehow (not understanding the entire technical discussion) negatively impacts the bond market. With Puerto Rico's situation and the this concern on POTENTIAL energy loan defaults, so for me at least, G Fund is the safest haven until the market hits below 1820 and some of this shakes out..

It sure seems like we should be near a bottom on oil but apparently not there yet.

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi DBA: Recently read that bonds are iffy if oil continues to tank. Wells Fargo has estimated that up to 30% of their energy loans could go underwater if oil tanks and that somehow (not understanding the entire technical discussion) negatively impacts the bond market. With Puerto Rico's situation and the this concern on POTENTIAL energy loan defaults, so for me at least, G Fund is the safest haven until the market hits below 1820 and some of this shakes out..

It sure seems like we should be near a bottom on oil but apparently not there yet.

FS

Thanks FS!! Good information. I have never liked the F or I funds because F does not always go inverse of equities and I fund is just too inconsistent and all over the place on the charts.

I have been trying to keep my eye on Puerto Rico, but just not sure how much F fund is invested there. Would like to know more on that, but no matter the case, Your points are very well taken!!

Dang, but I keep wanting to enter F only because people are making money in that fund! Its a little over 1% this month, but G fund is safer! At this point, still sitting on the G-Lilly pad!!

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Charts still look to be trending downward. MACD still sharply sloped down so definitely no equities entry yet. Today started out great but has been dropping steadily so looks like folks are still selling any slight climbs intraday....not too good.

 

[FogSailing]

I know DBA. I probably should have stayed in F for a few more days but I still think a bounce in equities is happening HERE (NO here, no here ) well... soon. And when equities rise, F almost always falls so I don't want to be there for that. Then somewhere between 1920-1950 SPX (my guess), if EWers are correct, the market falls further and completes the abc or 123 wave pattern down. That when I think this bad news on the bond market could show up so I'll move to G out of simple fear..

Best to you in your investing.

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi! Here are a few one-year Daily charts to chew on! Good night and best wishes!!!!!!!!! :smile:

C Fund (increased .05% today, closed at 1881.33)
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

S Fund (dropped -1.12% today, closed at 890.03)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Of course, change timeframe on left of charts to see longer timeframe...good broad perspective! If you do that onDWCPF /S fund and expand to 5-years, can see how MACD is at same lowlevel (~-32)as the drop in 2011. Expand to 10 years and see MACd getting closer to 2008.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So I am wondering what the Fed will have to say next week. If positive (i.e. no more foreseeable interest rate hikes), will it have any impact on the market dropping?????? No telling.... I should think it would give it a bump but who knows at this point. At this point, maybe some positive earnings reports could slow it down.

IF Fed were to announce another round of QE (but I think this is highly doubtful), what effect would that have? I could see where the response might be very mixed at this point. Partly because while it might prop up the market, the market would know how bad it is.... and that would not be good.

I must admit I am surprised to see the large drop today. Keep thinking it will let up. It will eventually... but when????

Best Wishes to Everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[felixthecat]

So I am wondering what the Fed will have to say next week. If positive (i.e. no more foreseeable interest rate hikes), will it have any impact on the market dropping?????? No telling.... I should think it would give it a bump but who knows at this point. At this point, maybe some positive earnings reports could slow it down.

IF Fed were to announce another round of QE (but I think this is highly doubtful), what effect would that have? I could see where the response might be very mixed at this point. Partly because while it might prop up the market, the market would know how bad it is.... and that would not be good.

I must admit I am surprised to see the large drop today. Keep thinking it will let up. It will eventually... but when????

Best Wishes to Everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

The time is now...oversold severe conditions...the rubber band has been pulled as far as it will go. Look for a strong day on Thursday...could be volatile though...but a perfect storm looks to be lining up with big rebound on oil as well. RSI on the S Fund is crazy oversold on a short term basis...it is set to blast away. I know...the market could keep selling...ugh...but the stampede is overwhelmingly negative sentiment which is another oversold sign. This 15 day selloff is a good place to put some money to work.

P.S...Need a big sell today between 4-5 percent. Volume looks like it will spike today on this drop. Not sure about the VIX...but I bet it spikes in the afternoon to send the buy signal.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

okay... just saw a couple articles with lots of information.

Indicate Market outlook getting uglier. This article has some information on current news aside from just oil. Notes that hoursing starts and permits fell in December, CPI feel unexpectedly in December due to fall in energy prices, pessimistic investor outlook.

Market Selloff: It Could Get A Lot Uglier | Fox Business

Further down there is a 2nd article stock prices tumbling. It talks about the statistics on the drops, tags oil drop as main culprit for selloff due to investor worries about world wide supply gut, indicates International Energy Agency said Tuesday that it expects excess supply to keep the oil market oversupplied through late this year. Says that this could be the 3rd year where supply exceeds demand by 1M barrels a day. Humm.... so Iran production would definitely have an impact.

Article also briefly discusses investors flight to Gold and safe-haven assets, gives more detail on the housing starts which dropped 2.5% last month while permits to build new homes dropped 3.9%.

Also mentions that manufacturing sector is in a recession. And that recently the GDP growth for Q415 dropped and real GDP growth is at .5% and that in light of last week's retail sales and inventories date, that estimate could be too high. Otherwise, also mentioned that bank earnings for Goldman Sachs 4th quarter did not hit its target due to the $5 Billion settlement with DOJ over mortgage-bond sales back in 2008; GS's largest regulatory penalty. IBM shares dropped 6% (15th straight quarter with revenue drop).

Would like to give positive news. .. but for now, maybe a look at the economic calendar might bring about companies with possibility of better earning reports.

Best wishes to you all!!!!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[Lakebound]

So I am wondering what the Fed will have to say next week. If positive (i.e. no more foreseeable interest rate hikes), will it have any impact on the market dropping?????? No telling.... I should think it would give it a bump but who knows at this point. At this point, maybe some positive earnings reports could slow it down.

IF Fed were to announce another round of QE (but I think this is highly doubtful), what effect would that have? I could see where the response might be very mixed at this point. Partly because while it might prop up the market, the market would know how bad it is.... and that would not be good.

I must admit I am surprised to see the large drop today. Keep thinking it will let up. It will eventually... but when????

Best Wishes to Everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

For some, it lets up when their TSP balance hits the number .01

Frank

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

More on the market... Per article in Market Watch, Parets expects a 26% drop in 2016. I've seen him before on FBN...he has been on target in the past. But who knows... just passing it on.

26% drop in S&P for 2016