DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Shitepoke, sorry for late response. If agreement does not result in some relief to reduce prospect of future debt increases, I believe this could cause bond rating for USA to be reduced (lack of confidence in US bonds) which I think would cause bond yield rates to go up for investors to accept a higher risk in buying the bonds and F fund would drop in value as those bond rates are already set ... And overall market would drop as well. Just my thoughts...not an expert on this.

Yet, AGG looks like MACD wants to cross positive and its rising...hummmm..I've been thinking about entry on it...



Best wishes to you! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before cutoff

Anyone know why I Fund has been taking a dive??

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[WorkFE]

Anyone know why I Fund has been taking a dive??

:laugh: Let me know if you find out.

 

[tsptalk]

Because of the dollar's strength. The dollar's spike higher has to do with the Fed's balance sheet being reduced dramatically, strengthening the dollar. That was after they increased their balance sheet, and the dollar went down, when the banks failed in March.

 

[cedarpine]

This could be the culprit for tanking of I fund in the near term. I fund drops near 4% for the month.

“Chinese ADRs slump premarket after weaker-than-expected manufacturing data
May 31, 2023 at 8:13 a.m. ET”



Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[tsptalk]

“Chinese ADRs slump premarket after weaker-than-expected manufacturing data
May 31, 2023 at 8:13 a.m. ET”

China isn't a part of our I-fund, but I do see Hong Kong's market has been tumbling of late and that could be related.

Ironically Japan's stock market has been soaring, the biggest holding in the I-fund (22%). :suspicious:

 

[WorkFE]

That is strange. Something is afoot

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thank you to everyone for your comments! :..very much appreciated....:smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before cutoff

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Entry .partial. 20S, 20C, 10F not sure how this squares with MACD as it has meandered. Best wishes to all! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

That is very interesting. Tsptalk, Thanks you information! :smile: I had not been paying attention to the balance sheet unwinding. But I thought this would cause US markets to drop. In past years, the liquidity flood elevated the market and kept it artificially high. But maybe the unwinding is affecting international EFA fund more than US market, relatively....is that correct???

Because of the dollar's strength. The dollar's spike higher has to do with the Fed's balance sheet being reduced dramatically, strengthening the dollar. That was after they increased their balance sheet, and the dollar went down, when the banks failed in March.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I heard on Maria Bartiromo Sunday Morning Futures that the debt ceiling agreement has clause granting authority for Federal Regulators to write rules that do Not need to consider effect on spending. I keep thinking more spending or lack of controls will eventually cause our rating to be downgraded unexpectedly like in 2011.

 

[tsptalk]

That is very interesting. Tsptalk, Thanks you information! :smile: I had not been paying attention to the balance sheet unwinding. But I thought this would cause US markets to drop. In past years, the liquidity flood elevated the market and kept it artificially high. But maybe the unwinding is affecting international EFA fund more than US market, relatively....is that correct???

Because of the dollar's strength. The dollar's spike higher has to do with the Fed's balance sheet being reduced dramatically, strengthening the dollar. That was after they increased their balance sheet, and the dollar went down, when the banks failed in March.

I think that (drop in markets) is in the cards if this continues. But the recent drop in the balance sheet only took it to about where it was before those bank failures and the spike in the balance sheet. Quantitative tightening will eventually be a roadblock for stocks if it continues, although they are likely to stop if there is a recession or imminent threat of one.

 

[felixthecat]

I think that (drop in markets) is in the cards if this continues. But the recent drop in the balance sheet only took it to about where it was before those bank failures and the spike in the balance sheet. Quantitative tightening will eventually be a roadblock for stocks if it continues, although they are likely to stop if there is a recession or imminent threat of one.

Stock market rally broadening to smallcaps. Vix is at a 52 week low. Market complancy is here…what could go wrong.

Seriously though…without the fed speak…rally probably has a few days more then next week begins the long decline on recession fears and then reality. Will be pulling some money off the table this week. I don’t want to get caught in the downdraft of all mother of downdrafts.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi FelixttgeCat, I definitely agree. I am thinking another day.... Crossing fingers! Best wishes to you and everyone! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon. Watching MACD for a crest to exit.
Note: Unable to insert annotations to C fund so unable to update to add in green circles where MACD crossover that has strong upward Slope. C fund is of concern to me because it looks like Slow Sto signal line is close to dropping below its signal line but MACD looks strong and is not yet cresting. No exit yet.

Looks like I should consider exiting F and C funds, reduce S fund to pocket some gains, and put some into I Fund.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff. Best wishes to all! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Move.. Reducing to 5S, 5C, adding 10 I. Best wishes to all....S and C's MACD have not yet crested.