DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

No move this week??? Still thinking about it..
Would like to see big jump up in C and S Fund before move to I fund...... I fund dropped yesterday
Maybe entry to I fund will need to wait a bit longer. Will see...1.5 hrs to decide. Hummm....may need to deploy sticky pants!!! Lol... If this market moves higher before cut off, I may need to move more to I fund....hope its the right move...

Best wishes to you all and wishing you a Great Weekend!!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[JeffJ]

Agree, As of now it looks like I fund would benefit from this strong day come Monday.....hopefully!

 

[Whipsaw]

I've seen some recent analysis that points to a stronger dollar as our economy and trade improves, this will work against the I fund, hence my exit from that fund for now. Somewhat amazed that S was up 1.16% and I was down .42%... but kind of backs up the above.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Whipsaw, It seems odd that you would be down if your invested in S fund and if DWCPF chart goes up. Was that last Thursday? Lately, I am trying to stick with Full Stochastic, MACD and to some extent seasonality. S Fund looks primed to move up, while C fund looks good too but has already been runnung up. I Fund is something ive thought about due to seasonality for that fund, but looks like day to buy was last Friday... I doubted....wanted to get in but wanted some coin from tax plan. Still considering move but looks like it might be better to at least put more in S. It does look like dollar might go up..

Best wishes!!!!!!!!!!!:smile:

S Fund


C Fund


I Fund


Dollar

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

IFT -reallocating more to S and I.
COB - S60%, C 10% and I 30%

Best wishes to you all !!!!!!! :smile:

P.s. hoping the move is not too early.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Reallocating today. Going 50%G, staying 30%I, reducing S to 20%. Had to get out of C...seems weak.
Best wishes to you all on your investments!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Wow!! Market just continues to blaze up! I fund is awesome! Will Congress temper this next week? I am starting to wonder about that. :nuts: still considering exit to F fund, but that is really hard at this point...plus F fund not looking so good.

 

[kb9nvh]

I'm starting to wish I had taken more of a position and thinking of doing it now.......a good sign for everyone to bail now!! LOL

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

26 minutes to decide and counting down......:1244:

 

[kb9nvh]

8 minutes

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Well didn't move last week and this week I am still frozen... only 50% in. Wishing I was in more. But now what to do... it looks like a huge Tsunami of money ...up up and away... but its gotta come crashing down at least a bit... right??? AT what point to jump in more?

I had thought to exit today or tomorrow and then re-enter when it pulls back a bit. right now 20%S and 30%I ... did notice the dollar pulled back a bit yesterday and I am thinking it may continue so I fund might not be the place to be. Then again... the F fund is not looking very healthy, though it now has dropped to 20 on Slow Stochastic, so maybe its time to buy??? Will see... 14 minutes and I just don't know. Will likely wait until tomorrow. ugghh.... can it last another day??????

Best Wishes to Everyone on your Investments!!!!!!!!
P.S. If I decide to exit, it will be like 4 minutes before cut off...

 

[kb9nvh]

I'm in the 2020 fund and dont like the rebalance they do/did. 2030 may be too aggressive so i may be making my own balance. I want to be in 50%. I'm already retired but not pulling any money yet from the tsp. Maybe I need to be more aggressive but....I need that money to be there in maybe 3 or 4 years. I'm 59 in feb. Back when I was young I would held in the C fund and was happy with that pull backs and all were no issue for me emotionally..until the tech bubble hit. I never know when to get back in so i'm afraid to pull it out now because I know me. I cant even decide to buy more now what little extra risk that would be.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok. Probably pulling trigger too soon but I reallocated.


F30% (moving I to F-- F could move up as it looks like it could be at a Short term low)
G70%- (increased from 50 to 70.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Well I did reallocate ... went 30%F (hoping it goes up with it being down at 20 on the Slow Stochastic) and 70%G. Will wait for a short pull back before jumping back in. Earnings reports start coming out Friday... or so I believe. Historically the earnings (later part) of January is where market excels but who knows... with the way things have been skyrocketing, this January could be very different from other years. Plus with the possibility of Govt shutdown, that could loom although I get the feeling the market is strong that the market does not care about that. It might just continue to shoot up... but will see.....


Oh...... wanted to mention. I love to watch WALLSTREET WEEK with Maria Bartiromo (?) each week... I think it comes out on Friday but I watch it Sunday. This show actually talks about financials, the market, and economy (unlike may others). Plus they always show a calendar towards the end of the 30 minute show that specifies what days in the coming week we will have new Govt statistics on consumer confidence, the economy, housing sales, etc... tons of stats, plus which companies are issuing their earnings reports and on what day. Plus very interesting and knowledgeable folks are interviewed. Love it!!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I'm in the 2020 fund and dont like the rebalance they do/did. 2030 may be too aggressive so i may be making my own balance. I want to be in 50%. I'm already retired but not pulling any money yet from the tsp. Maybe I need to be more aggressive but....I need that money to be there in maybe 3 or 4 years. I'm 59 in feb. Back when I was young I would held in the C fund and was happy with that pull backs and all were no issue for me emotionally..until the tech bubble hit. I never know when to get back in so i'm afraid to pull it out now because I know me. I cant even decide to buy more now what little extra risk that would be.

HI KB, I must say that this past year I was frozen for most of the year. Frozen with fear that is.... I guess it finally struck me that I am getting older and I will be retiring in a few years as well. Now the money seems more real. It is all looking much more risky and much scarier than before. So it is much harder to transact. I like to use chart analysis PLUS seasonality. I think this is working best for me now. Years ago, the Millionaires thread had a seasonality chart developed by a MSTRZERG that I analyzed for a time and I also have noticed that SWAVET has talked about using a derivative of it. I have been studying it this past year and I really like to use it in conjunction with chart analysis; though I do not rely on it completely. It seems to give very good returns.

In retirement, it would be very hard to be aggressive... at least for me. But really, I do not see much option. So I am trying to harden myself up and trying to get my strategy to be more in line with what the charts are saying as opposed to what "I think" will happen. I almost did not exit today. But I just kept looking at charts and while they look good, they are extended a bit. I do think it is time for a short pull back...might be very slight. I know one thing... I definitely want to be in for the earnings season. I am thinking it is going to be KILLER GREAT!!! Everyone I know was out buying throughout November and December. So I am thinking the numbers and market will follow, although it could be the market already knows that. Short term exit only... it is better to be in than out. ON the next small dip, I am back in.

 

[kb9nvh]

Well, party of me wants to just go sit in the C fund forever and the other part of me says dont get greedy. Looking back over my career all the pullbacks I generally got out about 33% down then would get back in at the same level for a net neutral (except the G fund made money in those 2 years or so). Knowing I could withstand a two year correction (as I play them it seems they last 2 years) makes me want to be risky. From peak to recovery is more like 6 or 7 years though. That's too long to allow to happen I feel. If I can make 8% I can about double my income from the annuity FERS and SS gives so I need to aim for that I think..after all, it would be nice to get a new car every 5 years or so.

 

[nasa1974]

Hey DBA.

Look at your signature line. Needs an update. Just and observation.

I still think the "I" fund has big potential but can't pull the trigger yet.

Good luck.

 

[evilanne]

HI KB, I must say that this past year I was frozen for most of the year. Frozen with fear that is.... I guess it finally struck me that I am getting older and I will be retiring in a few years as well. Now the money seems more real. It is all looking much more risky and much scarier than before. So it is much harder to transact. I like to use chart analysis PLUS seasonality. I think this is working best for me now. Years ago, the Millionaires thread had a seasonality chart developed by a MSTRZERG that I analyzed for a time and I also have noticed that SWAVET has talked about using a derivative of it. I have been studying it this past year and I really like to use it in conjunction with chart analysis; though I do not rely on it completely. It seems to give very good returns.

In retirement, it would be very hard to be aggressive... at least for me. But really, I do not see much option. So I am trying to harden myself up and trying to get my strategy to be more in line with what the charts are saying as opposed to what "I think" will happen. I almost did not exit today. But I just kept looking at charts and while they look good, they are extended a bit. I do think it is time for a short pull back...might be very slight. I know one thing... I definitely want to be in for the earnings season. I am thinking it is going to be KILLER GREAT!!! Everyone I know was out buying throughout November and December. So I am thinking the numbers and market will follow, although it could be the market already knows that. Short term exit only... it is better to be in than out. ON the next small dip, I am back in.

I really enjoy your posts. Don't be too fearful in retirement. In my first year of retirement (2016) fear caused me to barely break even due to some stupid moves. I like the seasonal strategies but in 2017 I come to the decision that my level of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) requires me to keep a certain percentage as buy & hold in this bull market. When I consider any IFT, I look at both %ages as well as dollars to determine how much I'm willing to risk given my perceived market condition, keeping in mind the maximum amount I'm will to risk (possibly lose in the short term) when seasonal returns are likely to be negative or positive. I will be looking at the charts towards the end of next week to see if I can increase my stock positions. With the upcoming uncertainty of the CRA & possible shut down next week the market movements could be all over the place next week, only time will tell. It is good that you are preparing yourself and figuring out your risk thresholds. For economic data, 2018 Economic Calendar is a good resource that provides dates for most Government reports for the whole year. I'm definitely not as disciplined as you or very good with charts, I rely on different things to different degrees and I'm sure our risk tolerance are somewhat different but I know I am terrible at trying to time the market so my returns will be lower than most others here...it is a balancing act with more focus on preventing losses but risk is lower as long as economic data remain positive...you win some and lose some but the fear has been minimal over the last year and you can still ride out minor losses even in retirement.

 

[Mcqlives]

Hi DBA!

Just a quick drive by to you and others considering normal indicators and seasonality. This year will be the one to watch for sure. Corporations will be maximizing writeoff's from last year for this filing season while setting up for maximum profits in seasons to come. With that in mind keep an eye on March 15th. I expect many haven't considered the implications of this but Buffet touched on it the other day during an interview.

Think about it this way. You invested in a corporate structure with 4 other friends so each of you share 20% of everything (or think mutual funds if you want). The old rate of 35% is done as of this filing season so you want to write off as much as you can so you are only taxed on the minimum you have to be. This means that you were getting tons of paid contracts for upgrades done the last week of 2017 (I know one farm services corporation that dropped over 100mil doing this between December 26 and Dec 29). This reduces the net taxable while increasing infrastructure/capacity/production/etc. You then take advantage of this increased capacity this year and, hopefully, for years to come at the lower rate of 21%. Now here is the beauty of it....your realized valuation went from an effective 20% to something arguably in the 34% range. The reason for this is that 14% drop in the rate increased valuation a corresponding amount at the stroke of a pen. Much of that has been priced into the markets already (IMO) but what hasn't been priced in is the effective increase in productivity/profitability/etc that the investments will give. When those figures are finally realized I think the markets will be much higher than they are now and we will actually be able to figure a new market trend out. I think we will see stock splits and dividends like we haven't seen since the 80's. We just have to wait for the earnings and filings to get reported to see if I am right.

 

[evilanne]

Thank you Mcglives! Your analysis makes a lot of sense and I will definitely keep that in mind when making future IFTs. I am more conservative since I retired but my risk level varies throughout the year depending on my outlook when I look at making an IFT.