Dollar falling like a rock

neirbod

Member
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Can someone explain to me why the dollar fell (and is still falling) so fast right after the job numbers came out? I would have thought that indications of a stronger US economy would have strengthened the dollar. Anyone?

Dave
 
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Wow look at the I Fund, 1.23% at open, can that be right? Dollar must be going to H--L. Good for the I. What do you think about Monday? Currently 10% I, 80% G. That's how my luck goes, yesterday 80% I:@
 
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Can someone explain to me why the dollar fell (and is still falling) so fast right after the job numbers came out? I would have thought that indications of a stronger US economy would have strengthened the dollar.
I thought maybe there was another reason for that but looking at the intraday chart it is definately a reaction to the jobs report. So I don't really get it. Is there an economist in the house?
 
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Way out of my league now but here's a reference:


[*]Some economists say the Bush administration is counting on the sinking dollar to alone reverse the lag in trade by spurring the economy to simply grow out of it.
http://www.newstarget.com/004323.html

and more, some contradictory >

Dollar Heads for Weekly Gain Versus Euro on U.S. Job Creation
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a70NYmxZnMMw

Insiders say falling dollar could spur surge in overseas investing
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2005/02/28/focus6.html

Dollar rally halted as Greenspan avoids interest rate talk
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050302/bs_afp/forexus_050302223949
 
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I love how everyone feels the dollar has to be strong! Here is my .02. The economy has to keep rolling right. I have told you before on the board in order for you to sell anything to the little guy you have to pay him sometime. The bread basket of Amercia needs to heal. The quickest way to heal it is a weak dollar and get the money back to the people that feed you and are making the raw product. A dollar in the bread basket is used faster and trades hands way more times than any where else. Any time the US has been at war the dollar has been low. Look at your history.
 
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While the falling dollar is helping the I fund today, I am concerned about this sharp drop. If it drops too far too fast, it could spark a downward spiral as those holding dollars sell them off.

Given this dollar concern, the prospect for a large spike in gas over the next week, and Tom's ongoing concerns based on his indicators, I'll be locking in my I fund gains and taking refuge in the G fund startingCOB today.
 
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tsptalk wrote:
I thought maybe there was another reason for that but looking at the intraday chart it is definately a reaction to the jobs report. So I don't really get it. Is there an economist in the house?
Screwed myself. I hedged myself and sold a bunch of foreign currency (especially the Australian Dollar because they are having GDP and Trade Balance Problems with the Borg too) in case the job report was good.

I thought a strong job report was good for the U.S. dollar and a weak job report was bad?

I think it may be the yield curve inversion problem.

The rally in equities is nice however this falling dollar is not positive. The Euros are purchasing a bunch of our stocks on the cheap - how longer will they stay in them? If it was me I would be cashing out because my currency lose would not be worth it.

Nothing is making sense.
 
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Tom, any thought about getting in the I Fund? The F Fund looks to be in good shape today. Look http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG&time=8&freq=1

I am still 100% I and have been for the last 4 weeks. It seems to be the strongest fund for the last 12 months.

I'll stay right here until I see something drastic. Small drops will not chase me out. If the I goes under the 10DMA then my trigger finger may get jumpy. Until then 100% I
 
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Well, at least the dollar has now stabilized against the euro. The way it plummeted I was concerned it would just keep going. I'm still wary of the weak dollar, but if it holds steady (or close to it) Monday morning I'll feel better about maybe jumping back in the I fundfor Tuesday, especially if there is a little dip from profit taking.
 
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