Does The AutoTracker Reflect Your Real TSP Account Moves?

[Boghie]

OBX,

Those 100% moves are market timing moves. There are folks who believe in that and can make it happen and beat the market. Not many, but a few. There are folks who think long term investing in large equity and bond classes is casino gambling. They think putting money in the 500 largest American companies - all of them with Kleptocratic Kapitalist Pig Management who want to grow the company - is gambling as much as putting 100% of their money in Apple or ENRON. There moves look just like the market timers. They get in a bit to get the vig and bail out just as quick. Those really are not market timing moves.

Then there are those who set and forget. Those are the buy and holders. There problem is two fold: 1) Their allocation changes and they do not understand the risk inherent in those changes. What do you think a 60/40 split made in 2009 looks like now. And, 2) They eat the entire downside when the market dumps. Why eat that crap when you don't have to. Right now, for example, only 40% of my sandwich is crap - yummy:cheesy:. Their sandwiches are 70% crap. I feel so much better now.

Then there are those that float around a mid-point. The mid-point is designed for normal markets and should give good risk managed returns that meet your goals. If the market is going gonzo than one can choose an allocation with more risk and more return. If the market is dumping bail out a bit and eat around the crap in the sandwich. But have enough in the market so that when the buxom brunette at The Twisted Kilt takes that old crap sandwich off the table and presents some tasty chicken wings for your eating pleasure you get a good handful before everybody else dives in. Those market timing divers will be all-out when I am enjoying myself. Those early gains are often the tastiest!!!

 

[userque]

In addition to what has been said, simply:

Just because another doesn't trade like someone else, doesn't imply that the other must be joking. :smile:

 

[OBXTrader]

Thanks again, good insight folks.

For PessOptimist I was not bringing up for an ego thing, more just in disbelief that someone might risk potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars like that. I don't gamble and never had much money growing up, so was a "saver". As I get older, I guess I am getting more conservative so can't take the big risks nor can I contribute for over 5 years. I suppose if I had just $10K in the TSP, let it rip.

Lot's of folks hate the 2 IFT limit. But, at say Schwab if you trade within 30 days of buying a fund, they sock you with a 2% penalty. So, I like having two moves and then a move to G.

When I was on active duty I was contributing to the L2020 staring in 2001. It was a lot more stocks back then than now. I stuck with it and never changed because I always had more coming in to DCA.

Since I have been out of the military, I have done better than the L2020 moving on my own so that is a victory and Kudos to this forum for giving me the courage. I missed this big down draft and I am happy for that. My moves in and out have been pretty well timed, but conservative. Before I started the thread, I checked and if instead of L Funds I did C Fund, I would have doubled my return last year. But, that's coulda, woulda shoulda stuff.

I think Tom said look at the people on the tracker that year after year are at the top not the one's who got it right last year. Where are they now using the same system?

It's just hard for me wrap my brain around my entire TSP going into one sector all at once. All I have known is diversify. I guess I am a turtle in that regard.

OBX,

Those 100% moves are market timing moves. There are folks who believe in that and can make it happen and beat the market. Not many, but a few. There are folks who think long term investing in large equity and bond classes is casino gambling. They think putting money in the 500 largest American companies - all of them with Kleptocratic Kapitalist Pig Management who want to grow the company - is gambling as much as putting 100% of their money in Apple or ENRON. There moves look just like the market timers. They get in a bit to get the vig and bail out just as quick. Those really are not market timing moves.

Then there are those who set and forget. Those are the buy and holders. There problem is two fold: 1) Their allocation changes and they do not understand the risk inherent in those changes. What do you think a 60/40 split made in 2009 looks like now. And, 2) They eat the entire downside when the market dumps. Why eat that crap when you don't have to. Right now, for example, only 40% of my sandwich is crap - yummy:cheesy:. Their sandwiches are 70% crap. I feel so much better now.

Then there are those that float around a mid-point. The mid-point is designed for normal markets and should give good risk managed returns that meet your goals. If the market is going gonzo than one can choose an allocation with more risk and more return. If the market is dumping bail out a bit and eat around the crap in the sandwich. But have enough in the market so that when the buxom brunette at The Twisted Kilt takes that old crap sandwich off the table and presents some tasty chicken wings for your eating pleasure you get a good handful before everybody else dives in. Those market timing divers will be all-out when I am enjoying myself. Those early gains are often the tastiest!!!

 

[Boghie]

It is good to sleep well...

The swingers with good bat speed and power do quite well. They maximize the information they have. I just know I cannot do it that way. The DCA'ers do quite well because the equity markets do quite well over longish periods of time. It ain't gambling. You have thousands of greedy managers and millions of greedy employees that have a stake in their businesses growth. There is a natural uptrend. But, if the uptrend in the gambling markets doesn't seem to track with the general uptrend in the economy than I really don't want to be around when the re-balance.

The problem occurs when something tamps the economy. Our economy isn't growing well, but it is growing. The equity markets did not really need a 57% collapse in 2008/09 so they really needed to play catch up with reality. And, reality growth is a moving uptrend so the catch-up is greater than the 57% hole. Where are we now? I thin the market is overpriced by a correction level and will adjust. But, I also think that equity investors will soon look past the Obama Presidency and see the potential for large economic recovery. Beat the swingers to the punch on that and you have a winner...

And, you

 

[userque]

I think Tom said look at the people on the tracker that year after year are at the top not the one's who got it right last year. Where are they now using the same system?

Not sure of the point here. :blink: But some responses could be:

• It is better to have loved, and lost; than to never have loved at all.
• They are in the crowd, with everyone else. There is no mandate that once you do good one year, you must always go good each and every year.

That said, that statistic you submit does evidence that there is a lot of luck involved in the game. This is even truer in the professional poker world. With so many participants and trading styles, one or more folks should always be expected to do super well if only by chance.

Repeated trips to the top of the tracker (with respect to the market as a whole--i.e. doing well when the broader markets aren't) year after year, in different types of weather, evidences skill, imo.

 

[Minnow]

When I first started here, I couldn't get the hang of the autotracker and the IFT cutoff and what it all meant, therefore; I doubt the AT reflected what i did (but remember we could move in and out with unlimited IFT's). Ever since I got the hang of it, then yes my autotracker account mirrors my TSP account -- for better or worse.