Discuss Market Comments 12/16

Cracks- Stocks opened higher yesterday, but the trend of weaker closes continued as the Dow ended the day down 19-points, but the broader indices saw a little stepper losses...

Market Commentary for 12/16/10

Current Daily Market Commentary

 

[Guest]

i think Tsunami posted a thread yesterday that the hidenburg omen is right only 28% of the time (seems like that is even a generous success rate), even though every significant drop in the last 25 years has been preceeded by the HB omen.

 

[Boghie]

I have that wicked cold that everyone out west seems to be getting. Knocks you out for days to a week...

Anyway, the charts seem to have a big boom at 0900 PST.

Is that all you chaps buying into the equities funds

 

[tsptalk]

i think Tsunami posted a thread yesterday that the hidenburg omen is right only 28% of the time (seems like that is even a generous success rate), even though every significant drop in the last 25 years has been preceeded by the HB omen.

From Wikipedia:

"From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% [The Wall Street Journal 8/23/2010 article cited below states that accuracy is 25%, looking at period from 1985], and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSEcrash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines."

 

[Boghie]

Well, Pelosi et al (sic, maybe) can't seem to get the urgency behind keeping the current tax code in force.

They really want to soak the rich.

So, they delay the vote. Wonder what the market will do?

Actually, you don't have to wonder. It was nice while it lasted