de ja vu?

[ayla]

According to some charts I put together recently, looks like the I Fund is coming up on the same scenario as last May (May 10th) when it started tanking. I'm seeing that we have 6 days before the pull back if it is exactly like it was last May. Who knows.

The S fund has similar chart characteristics as well but looks like we would have 19 days before it starts tanking IF the exact same scenario happens. As we all know, it is never exactly the same but does look to me like something is gonna fall IF things don't start leveling very soon.

And they have been known to fall at or around the same time so predictions could work for both. Given that this is October and not the end of Spring, that could make things a bit more optimistic (do you think?).

Hard to tell when to pull back. Both funds still have positive divergence but the ROC (rate of change) for both is quite high. S fund in particular is extremely high- means overbought, I think (as Tom has been saying).

The volatility chart at:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$VIX
indicates to me that this it is not a time to buy. From what I've observed, the lower the volatility on this chart, the greater the indication that it is NOT a time to buy. But I still haven't figured this one out that well so could mean anything.

Anyone else have any indicators that they are watching? (to determine when to leave the casino?)

 

[Oldcoin]

Ayla – Currently I’m in the I fund, I chart the RSI, MACD and Slow Stockcastics. I’m with you that we may see a pull back soon, say 6 to 9 days, however I don’t think it will be as severe as what happened in May. Why? Well the run up to the May pullback had the fund extremely overbought I think the RSI reading was over 70 from April 24 to the drop May 12 (or so). MACD and Slo STO were also in the same condition. Now the RSI has a reading of 63.31, MACD .473 and Slo STO 88.25/84.40. So not as bad as the May readings.

I am concerned about the S&P though, it is extremely overbought. If it takes a plunge it will impact the I fund. The other item to consider is the Dollar, it’s very strong right now. I noticed that Griffin was commenting on making a move to the I Fund based on the Dollar. I try to keep any eye on the other I Funders to time my own moves.

So I think any pull back we get will be in the 1 to 2% range, 3% maybe…..of course with geopolitical events who knows.

Oh yeah, each time we get an off day the indicators correct which helps extend the short-term positive trend. So a couple of off days could delay any pull backs.

Right now I’ve got my finger on the trigger.

 

[ayla]

Re: de ja vu? - RSI formula?

oldcoin -

I've been working on adding RSI to my charts and am having some difficulty with finding the right equation. Seems like the "Wilder" version of RSI is actually being reported incorrectly on numerous websites. I finally found this one (at iqchart.com) that gets the total within range but still my calculations are producing RSI's of over 100 in some cases.

Using this equation at: http://www.iqchart.com/101/tech_rsi.asp
1/(1+(U/d)) and a 14 day period, I'm seeing an RSI of 82.6 which sounds like it might be right especially since the I Fund came down a bit last Friday.

BUT for a week from last Friday, Oct 6th, my calculations are giving an RSI of 114. I know that the I Fund was overbought but shouldn't this RSI calculation stay within the range of 1 to 100? I'm thinking that I need to take an "absolute value" somewhere to make this happen.

What equation are you using?

to anyone -
Or does anyone else have an equation they would like to share?

 

[ayla]

I have found my error and it was an absolute value problem so I changed back to the Wilder formula which is 100-(100/(1+rs)).

So now I'm getting an RSI of 48 which is supposed to be bearish? I guess this is another indication that being in the I fund right now may not be a good idea, do you think?

Still would like input from anyone who uses a different RSI formula...

 

[Oldcoin]

I’ve been using the RSI generated by www.Stockcharts.com symbol $IEE It’s a 9 and 14 day span. Since it is the indicator that I’ve used all along, I have a consistent indicator. It gave an excellent warning of the May drop off. I wasn’t using the Slow Stocastics at the time, so I left the I Fund a bit too early. But still it saved me a lot of grief.

Actually the RSI indicates overbought and oversold conditions. RSI is plotted on a vertical scale if 1 to 100. Movements above 70 indicate overbought and below 30 oversold. They’ve worked well in the past.

You might want to look into getting a book on tech analysis; the second book I purchased was John Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. I think I got mine off eBay. It has been a huge help to me in learning about tech analysis.

At the moment being in the I Fund is okay, I would not buy the fund today but if you’re already in might as well stick around for awhile yet. Right now my indicators are not saying sell. But if the C Fund takes a dump, sorry Birch Tree, I jumping to the sidelines no matter what the indicators say; U.S. markets just have too much of an influence on the I Fund.