david.alan.williams Account Talk


As you know, the system is based on 10 months x2 samplings per month divided by 20, to get the M-SMA. When I applied this to the dollar, it is almost always below it's 10mo. M-SMA. Attached....

When the dollar WAS above the 10mo. M-SMA, the data wasn't telling us anything when compaired to the spreadsheet.

It did however, make me realize just how the dollar has declined over the years and can't even keep up with the M-SMA. Pretty bad actually. :(

D
 
As you know, the system is based on 10 months x2 samplings per month divided by 20, to get the M-SMA. When I applied this to the dollar, it is almost always below it's 10mo. M-SMA. Attached....

When the dollar WAS above the 10mo. M-SMA, the data wasn't telling us anything when compaired to the spreadsheet.

It did however, make me realize just how the dollar has declined over the years and can't even keep up with the M-SMA. Pretty bad actually. :(

D

Weak dollar is good for foreign investment in USA though. Also makes US goods cheaper and imports more expensive.
 
David,

I know it's too early to make any firm conclusions but now that you've massaged this formula and had a couple weeks to mull it over, what is your gut feeling about this modified 10 mo SMA system?

I think it is a viable solution to pushing back emotional trading and letting hard market data work in a formula to determine what the most logical position in the market you should be in. Not that is won't get whipsawed or make a wrong call occasionally but I'm really impressed with the backtestd data.

Your thoughts.............?
 
David,

I know it's too early to make any firm conclusions but now that you've massaged this formula and had a couple weeks to mull it over, what is your gut feeling about this modified 10 mo SMA system?

I think it is a viable solution to pushing back emotional trading and letting hard market data work in a formula to determine what the most logical position in the market you should be in. Not that is won't get whipsawed or make a wrong call occasionally but I'm really impressed with the backtestd data.

Your thoughts.............?

I'll believe in it until it proves me wrong I guess. Watching these boards everyday does make me have second thoughts until Birchtree chimes in with his bull market attitude, then I feel better. It is impressive and does take the emotion out, for the most part. Every now and then I get an itch to move to I or C since they were doing well but resist the urge. I have to keep telling myself to look at the backtested data. I'm sticking with it but will always keep an eye on the daily returns. The backtested data never had a bad drop so that's what I keep telling myself.

D
 
Tips to Protect Yourself From a Worthless Dollar: Porter Stansberry

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...i,^gspc,slv&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

I don't think I've heard of him...

D

I watched his video and at the end, he starts his 'used car salesman' speech to try to get you to give him $100/year to access his website. The ol', "Now that I've scared you with potentially made up facts and figures...Give me your $ and I'll protect you from the big bad wolf with my 8 books containing 184 secrets that everybody already knows."
 
I watched his video and at the end, he starts his 'used car salesman' speech to try to get you to give him $100/year to access his website. The ol', "Now that I've scared you with potentially made up facts and figures...Give me your $ and I'll protect you from the big bad wolf with my 8 books containing 184 secrets that everybody already knows."

Don't sign up for his free newsletter or anything else. I did this back when I first started looking at investing back in 2004. Got email spam out the ying yang....:rolleyes:
 
Well, with the way our economy and our government is, I've decided to ramp up my efforts to become debt free so I can contribute more to TSP and start buying ETF's and mutual funds.

I only owe on one car and one pontoon boat (it's a beauty!!!) so about $38,000. Everything else is paid for: the house, 4 other cars, 4 wheeler, college for 2, and a camper.

I decided to work some nights and some weekends to accomplish this ASAP. I have an interview at Lowe's Monday. :nuts: (I blame Dave Ramsey)

I hope I'm still marketable at 48. :worried:
 
Well, with the way our economy and our government is, I've decided to ramp up my efforts to become debt free so I can contribute more to TSP and start buying ETF's and mutual funds.

I only owe on one car and one pontoon boat (it's a beauty!!!) so about $38,000. Everything else is paid for: the house, 4 other cars, 4 wheeler, college for 2, and a camper.

I decided to work some nights and some weekends to accomplish this ASAP. I have an interview at Lowe's Monday. :nuts: (I blame Dave Ramsey)

I hope I'm still marketable at 48. :worried:

Dave Ramsey wants you to deliver pizza and the only time you see the inside of a restaurant is when you're working in it. :p Also, he wants you to sell your car, boat, 4-wheeler, and camper, sell so much stuff the kids think they are next! I am a Ramsey fan also. :D Beans and rice, rice and beans.....
 
Well, with the way our economy and our government is, I've decided to ramp up my efforts to become debt free so I can contribute more to TSP and start buying ETF's and mutual funds.

I only owe on one car and one pontoon boat (it's a beauty!!!) so about $38,000. Everything else is paid for: the house, 4 other cars, 4 wheeler, college for 2, and a camper.

I decided to work some nights and some weekends to accomplish this ASAP. I have an interview at Lowe's Monday. :nuts: (I blame Dave Ramsey)

I hope I'm still marketable at 48. :worried:

cool, getting debt free is the way to go. i only have student loan debt, i'd like to get rid of it but afraid i'd lose some of the smartness i paid for with my future.

which dept. you think you want to work? where at that lowes, how far the miles? i'm planning on remodeling my bathroom and always have a bunch of yard work. maybe we could work out an employee discount/shipping arrangement.
 
cool, getting debt free is the way to go. i only have student loan debt, i'd like to get rid of it but afraid i'd lose some of the smartness i paid for with my future.

which dept. you think you want to work? where at that lowes, how far the miles? i'm planning on remodeling my bathroom and always have a bunch of yard work. maybe we could work out an employee discount/shipping arrangement.

It would be at the Trussville, Al. location. Where do you reside? I looked in your profile but didn't see it. I'd like to work in electrical, telco, and CATV area, but not sure what they are offering/interviewing.

D
 
Dave Ramsey wants you to deliver pizza and the only time you see the inside of a restaurant is when you're working in it. :p Also, he wants you to sell your car, boat, 4-wheeler, and camper, sell so much stuff the kids think they are next! I am a Ramsey fan also. :D Beans and rice, rice and beans.....

I'm glad I'm not having to go to that extreme BUT I probably should have about 15-20 years ago. My wife can't wrap her head around that we will never have another loan again (except maybe for another residence but I doubt it.) Want a new car? Put $500 mo. in savings for 4 years and the pay $24,000 cash for it. :p Buy that time, I'll bet you'd say "mmm I think I'll buy a $8,000 used car and keep $16,000 in the BANK!"

D
 
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