Dave's Account Talk

[Dave M]

Well the imaginary tenner was a great move, worth almost $6000. Should I let it ride? *smile*

In the real world, I added two increments and will enter next week at 61G 11C 11S 17I.

Good luck everybody!
Dave

 

[Dave M]

Here is a look at the index C+S+I times 100, the sum of the fund prices without the decimal point. I track it weekly.

Dec 30 4741
May 5 5347
July 21 4847
Aug 18 5131

By mid-May we had achieved a 12.8% gain.Then came the Bernanke Panic which cost us over 80% of that. We bottomed in July and since then have recouped another 50%. We now stand at 8.2% for the year.

That means that buy-and-holders who invested 100% evenly across all three funds and just closed their eyes, would stand at +8.2% for the year. Considering new contributions and resulting favorable buying opportunities, the figure is closer to 9%.

I was 65% invested through mid-May, and probably less than 20% on an average daily basis since then, as I have been in and out a lot lately. I estimate my return at 9.5% for the year as of the 18th which the tracker will show as nine and a fraction.

Buying and holding is approximated by the line for "Total Market" on our tracker, and it will be in the Top Ten tomorrow. We should all consider our moves very carefully.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

Fine Tuning

I ordered the allocation 61G 13C 7S 19I this evening, which will go into effect at tomorrow's close and so be my position for next week.

The S-fund has underperformed lately so I decreased from 11S to 7S and gave it to the C- and I-funds, while retaining my overall cash position, 61G.

So far August has been better than I expected; let's hope for a strong finish!

Dave

 

[Dave M]

August

August is in the books. I was in the G-fund for the first two weeks of the month, then gradually increased my exposure to around 40%. For the month I earned 1.0% almost exactly. This increased my YTD figures to 18.6% NAV, 8.4% contributions and 10.2% earnings, which will show as ~10% in our tracker.

That's good money. Through PP15, my TSP account is matching my net pay. I plan to make only minor adjustments in September unless something drastic happens.

Good luck everybody,
Dave

 

[Dave M]

I'm Confused

Oil is down, gold is down, peace is up -- and the market is down? Oh, well. Perhaps it was programmed trading. In any case I bailed today to the Safety Zone. Fortunately today's losses were minor. I will sit out the weekend and re-evaluate on Monday.

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

If you want to stop a train - step in front of it. Works every time.

 

[Dave M]

Risk - Reward

Be my guest, my friend. It takes many miles to stop a train.

I am very happy with the results of my various moves so far this year. What I felt to be true, has been quantified by Rokid the Enumerator. My rewards have been substantial in absolute terms as well as in the relative. The strategy has been to establish the level of risk, buy up to that point, and then let time do its work. Since May the tactic has been to re-evaluate the risk on a weekly basis.

Discounting the funds themselves, YTD returns have placed me in the top ten pretty consistently since then. The associated risk is among the lowest by all measures and that is very important to me, as you can see from my profile that my ETS is approaching fast.

Still, I have to hand it to those who have successfully outperformed the rest of us. Fundsurfer, Show-me, Wheels, Ebb, et al, somehow you have managed consistently to beat the odds. I am considering a method whereby I could incorporate your moves into my own.

For instance, I see ~60% as my natural risk level, which monies I typically spread among the funds. Perhaps half the remainder might be allocated in step with your own. So for example if I was to be 40G 20C 10S 30I, and you guys in the aggregate go for 100I, then I might put another 20 into the I fund and end up at 20G 20C 10S 50I. See what I mean? Any comments?

Dave

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Risk - Reward

I am very happy with the results of my various moves so far this year. .................................................


Any comments?

Dave

Someone will always be doing better, so would this new strategy be motivated by greed?

 

[Griffin]

Re: Risk - Reward

Someone will always be doing better, so would this new strategy be motivated by greed?

S&S, what is the issue with greed?....why does trying to maximize your investments equate to greed. Is a healthy diet - glutony? or taking a vacation - sloth? What are you getting at?

 

[nnuut]

Ha, Greed is Good!

 

[Dave M]

Greed Need Weed Seed Feed

The point of our mutual exercise is to learn from one another. I propose to act upon my new knowledge. It would seem to be the course of least risk to adopt those methods proven to be efficacious. My effective risk would remain ~60%, yet my return could be augmented by a third. Thanks for reading. Give me more feedback.

Dave

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Risk - Reward

S&S, what is the issue with greed?....why does trying to maximize your investments equate to greed. Is a healthy diet - glutony? or taking a vacation - sloth? What are you getting at?

Why deviate from what is working and you are happy with? Dude, you need to stop jumping to conclusions. Maximizing your investments is fine as long as you are using sound methods. But when you start deviating from your strategy(that has been working) for no reason other than someone else is doing it seems reckless. I will say that the proven track records of the people he will follow seem to be something to bank on but everyone will fall sooner or later. How far depends on how long you ride it out. Stick with what's working for you.

Has anyone here just copied Fundsurfer to maximize their profits?

And Gryffyndor, you seem to be assuming that I think greed is a bad word. For the right reasons being greedy is very appropriate.

 

[Birchtree]

I have.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Risk - Reward

Dude, you need to stop jumping to conclusions.

And Gryffyndor, you seem to be assuming that I think greed is a bad word. For the right reasons being greedy is very appropriate.

Dudette, I'm just curious as to why you consider good management = greed. This isn't "Wall Street" - none of us are squeezing the life out of the poor and underpriviliged.

The reason I ask is I don't think of myself as a greedy person, in fact, I'm actually happier by the fact that I don't feel the need to drive a Porsche and live in a 4000 sq ft home (and neither does my wife, which is probably why I'm really happy about it ).

PS: Mrs Ravenclaw :nuts: - I don't want to hijack Dave's thread any further, but I do want to hear this....get back to me elsewhere.