Dave's Account Talk

[James48843]

A "Prime" strategy! I LOVE it!


OK Folks- what could you do with these?

Primes:

1 2 3 5 7 11 13 17 19
23 29 31 37 41 43 47 53
59 61 67 71 73 79 83
89 97

 

[Fivetears]

Add them all together and get 1061? :blink: :nuts:

A "Prime" strategy! I LOVE it!


OK Folks- what could you do with these?

Primes:

1 2 3 5 7 11 13 17 19
23 29 31 37 41 43 47 53
59 61 67 71 73 79 83
89 97

 

[Dave M]

If you include zero, then we have 27 numbers. We take them 4 at a time -- (27 4) = 27!/4!x23! = 27x26x25x24/4x3x2 = 17,550 possible combinations.

We require that the sum = 100. The permutations are distinct since 3C7S is different from 7C3S, for example. And we should allow for repetitions, like 23C23S. I can't figure out how to calculate this, the total number of valid allocations.

It is clear that there are many. See some of my allocations from earlier in the year.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

Today was gratifying. Not "deeply" gratifying though, because I was only 29% invested. *smile*

Now the question is, what position do we want to be in Tuesday morning? I assume the site and the market will be closed Monday for Memorial Day. Is that correct?

If so, we have until noon tomorrow to decide. Right now my inclination is to add another increment, say 53G 13C 11S 23I. My risk will increase by (100-53 / 100-71) = 47/29 = 1.62 for 62%.

We have only three more trading days in the month so if we are to emerge from the red, now is the time. (My losses were minimal really, in which I was very fortunate.)

I will post the move in my account thread when I do.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

I have decided I am in no hurry to get skinned.

If the market holds on and rises today -- if we have turned a (local) corner -- then I will benefit as I do have some $$ on the table. If there is faltering then I will incur only limited losses because of my partial position, and yesterday's gains will be offsetting.

So I will wait and see where we stand on Tuesday morning. By nature I am a long-term guy but also I am taking your good advice, Skip -- "Be nimble." Being nimble of May 15th saved my butt, heh.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

Today we did it again, very good news for all of us.

In my case I now estimate +0.5% for the month. I take my cue from S&S and call it dumb luck. The all-stocks index fell from 5239 on April 28 to 5076 today for -3.2%.

I see no reason to do anything until the 31st, I'm standing pat,
71G 7C 5S 17I.

See you then, good luck eveybody.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

The whole world seems to have the jitters. If we're going to show a profit this quarter, it looks like we'll have to hold on to what we've already made because the immediate future is doubtful. So today I went 100G.

One must be in to win, yes. I was in, and I did win, over the last year or so. Now it seems in order not to lose, one must be out. I hope not to be out for long.

Good luck everybody.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

The Last Year

Just for fun here are my year-on-year figures.

The all-stocks index stood at 4238 a the close on May 31, 2005; and was 5042 on May 31, 2006 for a 19% increase.

My NAV increased by 26% over this time, 12% from my contributions and netting 14% from the market.

So I captured 14/19 = about 75% of our three stock funds' rise in average value.

For comparison the G-fund is up by 4.7% which we could call 5% given compounding. Added to my 12% from contributions (fixed) gives 16.7%. My 26 divided by the G's 16.7 = 1.57, which says that by being in the market over the last twelve months, my total balance increased in dollar-value by half-again over what it would have, had I been in the G-fund instead.

Another way of looking at it is that my 12% contributions was on the same order as my 14% earnings over the year. Had I been in the G-fund, my contributions would have been two and a half times my earnings. (12/4.7)

So it has been a good twelve months. It encompasses the time I decided to stop trying to time the market and to stick with a basic allocation defined by my risk level.

Dave

 

[nnuut]

Dave, you have quit timing the Market but have enough common sense to get out when it's on a down trend!! DUH! Good job.
Norman

 

[Dave M]

My common sense was pure emotion, my friend. I could have missed a big upswing just as easily.

I weathered several downturns over the last year but they were nothing like this. And now I feel like I used to when I was an active player and had a high chess rating -- to protect. When you can play ten games at the club, win nine and lose rating points, it changes things.

So here I have earnings to protect. Remember I have only about three more years to go; there is no time to make up for another disaster like Q1 '05 when I lost $5k, my 'timing phase.' My Yr-on-Yr numbers look good because that quarter has faded from the calculations.

Onward!

Dave

 

[nnuut]

June and July of 05 got me good. Kept hangin' in there to catch the BIG RALLY> Oh no, no, no, I don't do that no more!

 

[Birchtree]

Snort!

 

[Dave M]

Hey, save me some! *snort* Aah.

The dumb money (me) made a small move. At the close today I will be

89G 3C 3S 5I.

If the results are good then I will add to my position over time.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

Congrats if you are in 100% today. I just added some to my position and will be 79G 5C 5S 11I cob today.

By way of remark, note how even bad news can be good if it removes uncertainty. We got a CPI that was higher (worse) than anticipated, yesterday. This increased the liklihood that the Fed will raise rates this month. This is bad news in an otherwise-undisturbed market. However the market is very disturbed, and this increased liklihood of a rate increase has acted to reduce that, resulting in some gains in the indices.

One thing we can say for sure, this rate increase has already been priced into the market, and then some. My feeling is, we will rise back to where we ought to be, now that we know the score.

A bit at a time, I am getting back up on the horse that threw me.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

Well Well

It was three tenths for me, not two as I estimated over at Carnac's Corners. Free coffee tonight at Dave's Diner.

Dave

Oh, yeah, I edited my profie.

 

[Dave M]

Len Snellman

Read about Len Snellman in the attachment, courtesy of the Air Weather Association. The relevant quote:

"He...coined the term, "Meteorological Cancer," in a 1977 paper. He defined it as the increasing tendency of forecasters to abdicate practicing meteorological science and becoming more and more just a conduit of information generated by computers. He challenged all operational meteorologists to fight the disease...."

(Len Snellman taught the weather school when my father was at Ft Hood Texas flying B-17's. I met Len when he was working in Salt Lake City while I was in grad school at the Met Dept there; one of those things.)

Meteorological Cancer can be extended to the financial world I think. How much actual thinking is going on?

Dave

 

[Dave M]

The Word Spreads

Here's a quote from someone who believes as I do. I don't know who he is but he has his finger on it.

"Somewhere out there, when the mood changes, demand for those shares" will return, McIntyre said."

Tom McIntyre, president and chief portfolio manager at Massachusetts money manager McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn (CNN Money)

He was referring to what would be the C-fund in our world, but it is mood that concerns us.

Dave

 

[Dave M]

Made It

I wanted another increment this month and I got it yesterday. I presume that the good day overseas will offset the negative domestic day underway, given my allocation, and that it is now safe to retreat to the Neutral Zone.

I have no faith at all in the markets next week. The Bernanke Panic may be on again, so I will finish the month and quarter in the G-fund.

Good luck everybody!
Dave

 

[Dave M]

Happy To Be Here

I don't have an investing philosophy, really, except to save or contribute all I can, legally. I try to make a positive contribution to our site, to help all to multiply. This my account has done but I see now it was good fortune more than anything. As soon as the market turned sour I reverted from calm assurances of long term prospects, to nervous short term measures. Adversity helps to reveal; I have gone to the G-fund where I will remain until I feel confident once again.

For the year, at the end of June, I will have a total change in NAV of 14.7%, of which 6.2% is contributions and 8.5% market gain. (This will show as ~8.0% on our tracker.)

It is a good year's worth, about four times as well as I did all last year. So maybe now is a good time for me to let the TSP rest. It is hurricane season again, and last year was a nightmare.

You know I worked them all, I'm one of the idiots they pay well to remain behind. I spent today with a chain saw clearing foliage to reduce the windage, get that out of the way, a bit of sustainable logging of the property. Investment-wise, hurricanes bring uncertainty which we abhor.

Good luck, everybody.
Dave

 

[Dave M]

June Whew!

June is behind us, and what a month! By the 16th it was down 3.3% and on the 30th it closed up 0.2% so it was what you call volatile. (All-stocks index)

I missed most of the downer and most of the up as well, by sitting in the G-fund. I came out for one week and made a little bit. For the month I estimate 0.83% gain.

This means a gain of 8.3% YTD. With contributions of 6.3% it adds to change in NAV of 14.6%. In raw dollars my TSP account is out-earning my Keys Federal CU account, and stands at 2.5 times my gross income for 2005. I'm shooting for 4X but I keep getting raises, heh.

Dave