DakotaKid's Account Talk

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Board was virtually silent today... I very seriously thought about getting in, but in the end I decided to hold off for another day. This noon deadline is such a killer - I want to see how the day shapes up and whether we hold 1140ish before I get back in.
 
Went from 100%S to 50g 50s yesterday after Monday's pop. Think I'll reduce my exposer a bit more today... due in part that I'll be out of town for most of the next two weeks and my access will likely be limited.
 
The risk is that you could miss a 1,000 point move in the Dow. There is so much money looking for a home and with a stronger economy looking forward the bonds will give up cash and that cash will seek heat from equities.
 
I've done some work on my own system for a while, going to track it realtime now in my signature line like everyone else. We'll see how it goes... It's on a buy for stocks right now, which makes me a little nervous... I'm anticipating a weak January. Anyway, wish me luck!
 
Thanks Bronco. It's going to take some discipline on my part to stick to this. I'm too used to trying to jump in and out of the market. This is designed to be more similar to BirchTree's method (boy that hurt to say) due to our limited number of available IFTs per month.
 
This has likely been mentioned elsewhere, but I haven't seen it. In the event that it hasn't, here ya go. The TSP Contribution Limits has been increased from $16,500 to $17,000 per year. Changes are made at employeeexpress.gov.

Cheers!:nuts:
 
I have not invested the time and effort to become proficient at reading charts and how to apply the various different techniques to time the market. This website has been invaluable to me in growing my account through reading the market commentary and reading a number of people's market analysis (Uptrend, Coolhand, JTH, etc). However, I had a tough time taking my emotions out of my trades. I avoided the majority of 2008's losses, but what bothered me was that I also missed the majority of 2009's gains because I was too scared to get in. I was convinced that we were not done testing lows and as soon as I entered the market we'd go south again. Looking back on that, I figured there had to be a better way.

Spreadsheets are something that I love tinkering with, so that's what I did. Simply put, due to our IFT limits I decided that I didn't need a system that would get me in and out of the market every month - trying to hit the gains and avoid the losses. So what I ended up with is a modified Birchtree account. My system plays percentages - not market indicators. When we gain a certain amount, I take some off the table. Go down a certain amount, I buy back in. During a bull market there's a good chance that I'll be heavily invested for a year or more. To mitigate losses though (like 2008), when there's a steep drop and I've absorbed a certain percentage loss, I get 90% out (I never go 100%). My system shows better returns if I'm 100% out, but it's not significant, and I find it easier on my mind if I always have a little skin in the game. With a big loss like that, I've noticed turmoil at the bottom, so I don't go 100% in again until the markets have regained a certain amount. Just like bull markets, if we're in a bear market that triggers me to get out, I could be out for a year or more until the choppiness stops.

If anyone is interested in tracking my system, know this. When it's in the market, that's what it means. It doesn't matter which fund (C, S, or I), it just means be in one of those - it's more the percentage invested that matters. Right now I like the S fund, so that's what I invest in. When I take some out, it can go in the G or F fund. Personally I usually go to the G fund. I don't like losing money when in my mind it's supposed to be safe. Of course also know that I'm not a professional, you follow my system at your own risk, etc etc.

I tend to ramble a lot... Hope it made sense!
 
You're obviously doing something right, DakotaKid! That's why this forum is so good. Everyone has different ideas on how to trade, and we can all learn from each other and help all of our accounts grow as much as possible.

Best of luck to you, and keep up the good work!

JR
 
I like that strategy, it's a good balance between buy & hold vs. market timing. I've been known to measure the percentage of price above/below a moving average and use that as an indication of overbought/oversold conditions. If you have enough history you can judge more precisely when to throttle back or gun it within the waves. As you put it "having skin in the game" is important. I like to use the conditional formatting feature to highlight the specified criteria.
 
Thanks for the kind words everyone.

I've backtested through 1998. I wanted to start before 2002 to see how it did during two major corrections. It's certainly not a perfect system (what is?) - the way it's set up now, I will eat some losses until the trigger hits to bail. I purposely did that to not get shaken off during minor corrections. Here's those results:

[TABLE="width: 215"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]........DK
[/TD]
[TD]......S&P
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2010[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.66%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2009[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25.58%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24.78%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2008[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.67%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-40.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2007[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2006[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2004[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2003[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24.87%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2002[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-10.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-23.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2001[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.72%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-11.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-8.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1999[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.08%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1998[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25.11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25.71%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Conditional formats certainly have their uses, but right now I primarily just use formulas. They get pretty complex with all the nests (I've run into the formula size limit and had to spill into more than one cell to perform the calculations...) I started this a few years ago - quit because I got discouraged - then had to wade through it when I started again to figure out where I'd left off. Fun stuff!

I've thought about having a different set of conditions for when I hit the trigger and jump out to try to play right after a crash, but haven't gotten to it yet. Your statement about throttling back and gunning it within the waves is certainly something I will have to think about... Any more information about how you did that that you can share?

Part of my problem is that I recently took a position that has me working 9-5 M-F now. I have small children that occupy a lot of my free time - so time to work on this comes at a premium!

Thanks again
 
Doh, I'm annoyed. I've been more busy than usual at work these last couple of days... And yesterday's postive close pushed my system to the next stage of selling. It should have happened before the deadline... guess it'll be Monday. So, COB Monday I'll be 80% G 20% S. Hope we continue up over the weekend :)
 
My system will trigger a buy if prices close around current levels. I'll watch prices today and if levels are still on par with what they are now, I will probably execute an IFT today rather than wait for a confirmed price at the end of the day and have to wait until tomorrow for my IFT. If that happens, I will be 40%G 60%S.
 
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