Crash of 2011 happening now?

[RealMoneyIssues]

Don't let him anywhere near another microphone, tweet, fb or anything else... damn...

Oh yeah, wait until Big Ben gets on the mic tomorrow...

Just saying...

 

[nasa1974]

I've been out moving furniture all day. Might as well plan an finishing the year negative. Don't see me climbing out of this hole anytime soon. What bridge are we going to meet at later???

 

[James48843]

Oh Come On now- you all know that stocks are now cheaper than at any time in the last year!

What a bargain buying opportunity!


Just ask Birch!

BUY-BUY-BUY!

 

[kam]

Don't we have to remove that January 2013 guillotine for another Do-Not-Raise-The-Debt-Ceiling-Or-Else before our ratings can be revised upward? According to them, that was the reason for this downgrade, in addition to the debt itself.

 

[Appatite]

Just frack me now.

 

[FAB1]

The Fool in the White House is toast - he can take his place among the rest of American presidents who failed miserably and even the lying mediawhores cant save him. Maybe this was worth the price of admission.

 

[FAB1]

Im sorry did I say mediawhores, I meant, presstitutes.

 

[James48843]

Don't we have to remove that January 2013 guillotine for another Do-Not-Raise-The-Debt-Ceiling-Or-Else before our ratings can be revised upward? According to them, that was the reason for this downgrade, in addition to the debt itself.

No, that's not the reason for the downgrade. The reason for the downgrade was explained in the S&P statement:

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year’s wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.


Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating and with ‘AAA’ rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions,” June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government’s ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population’s demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see “Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now,” June 21, 2011).

They simply observed the debt ceiling having become politically partisan, rather than an obligation that both parties previously always considered a necessary product. The very fact that one side seriously was advocating letting the debt ceiling rupture, was enough to re-evalute.

the full S&P statement can be read here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8685683/SandP-downgrade-the-statement.html

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

The very fact that one side seriously was advocating letting the debt ceiling rupture, was enough to re-evalute.

And of course the other side wanting to spend to oblivion had nothing to do with it.

OBTW, you are generalizing the party by comments by a FEW who had said to let the debt ceiling rupture. Thats like saying all Democrats are 'Tax and Spenders'... they're not; thank goodness for southern democrats who are fiscal conservatives...

Balanced Budget Amendment Now !!

 

[Appatite]

Well, I don't much care if it is lefties fault or righties fault. This site is about what we are doing with our tsp retirement money.

And if tommorrow is even slightly red at 10:45 AM/11:45 AM ET, I am pulling out of S fund. This thing is in free fall right now. Fear has gripped America once again.

What is the new low we will see? And who really wants to ride this thing all the way down?

 

[FAB1]

Well, I don't much care if it is lefties fault or righties fault. This site is about what we are doing with our tsp retirement money.

That is true. But I still think he is toast. I am going derive some pleasure from that. You can be assured when the tough get going he will be going to the golf course.

 

[kam]

No, that's not the reason for the downgrade. The reason for the downgrade was explained in the S&P statement:



They simply observed the debt ceiling having become politically partisan, rather than an obligation that both parties previously always considered a necessary product. The very fact that one side seriously was advocating letting the debt ceiling rupture, was enough to re-evalute.

the full S&P statement can be read here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8685683/SandP-downgrade-the-statement.html

James - that is exactly what I was saying...in January 2013, during the lame duck session of Congress, ie. with our current Congress and President, the debt ceiling expires, or atleast the limit expires even if it hasn't run out. That's when the choice will be "Raise taxes for All" (i.e. let the Bush Tax Cuts expire), which is the same as Do Nothing, including the 50% cuts to Military and 50% cuts to Discretionary (the ticking time bomb option) OR "Raise Taxes for None" and you will get us to approve a new Debt Ceiling Limit.


That is the scenerio that hangs over our heads, which puts us in the same place as we just were - a politically partisan fight over the Debt Ceiling Limit, because that is the new political paradigm we apparently must live in, thanks to you know who (Tea anyone?).

 

[Birchtree]

I want my illegitimate baby and my government check.

 

[Fireant]

Yes... pain threshold is high but this might be a repeat from last decade.. don't know how much PAIN I can take and feeling stupid for being in the market again... fed has no 'majic' bullets left... according to Najarian on CNBC market is rigged and I believe him... guess retiring in 3 years might not be in the cards... once again small investors are getting the shaft and this might be bigger than the last.. maybe a bounce tomorrow so I can get out.. best of luck to all and congrats to all those still positiive as I am envious....

 

[burrocrat]

Whooo, hooo, hooo! This fire's burning real hot now boys. Maybe things will cool down some tomorrow after FiremenBen throws more paper at it. And TurboTimmy could stop by and cry some of his gasoline tears for us too.

I ain't going to lie, my goal is to miss and then capitalize on these types of events, but it's a little too late to do the right thing now, 100% in and not budging. We should all feel lucky to witness two once-in-a-lifetime crashes, essentially back to back, how often does that happen? And those of us participating on the long, again, will have some more good stories to tell to boot.

When a beast is rampaging like this, sometimes the safest place to be is on its' back. I'm gonna ride this bear for all I've got till it wears out or eats me alive. Fists full of fur and working the spurs, yeehaw baby! If I'm stuck for the trip then it may as well be a good one.

 

[burrocrat]

I want my illegitimate baby and my government check.

I think the means testing clause will make you ineligible for the gubmint check, even after recent market events. But depending on plumbing and age, I could help you with the illegitimate baby part.

 

[Mcqlives]

Just don't ignore this part of the s and p decision statement..."and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures."

 

[burrocrat]

I don't want a political or personal fight with anyone, there are lots of reasons why we are in this mess, to blame it on the last thing that happened before an event may be correlative, but not necessarily causal. C'mon we all know that this has been building for a long time, and politicks of every flavor have had their hands in the pie. So have we, as we continue to vote, spend, save, hope under a structure that is fundementally unsustainable.

From my point of view the discussion is really about selfishness. Now we all have the right to hope for the best situation for our money, but in a perfect world we also should be aware of how that affects others.

For those near retirement it is perfectly legitimate to hope for a return to the warm fuzzy plan you envision, even it means beating this dead horse until you're done getting yours, although at great cost to those in the future. For younger workers it may mean clean this thing out and let's see some real changes so that they can reasonably assume the benefit might actually be there.

So what is right and what is wrong? I don't know, but if we don't fix this thing, I mean really fix it, then there may be nothing left. For anyone.

Besides, fire is beneficial for the ecosystem, helps restore balance. Here is a good report on the subject: http://ncprescribedfirecouncil.org/pdfs/GoodFire-BadFire.pdf

The first rule of tinkering is to save all the parts.

The money magicians have been tinkering for decades now and there's obviously some screws missing or loose, because this macheen don't work anything like it used to and it's been a long time since it produced more than it consumes.

When the fire starts running this fast you just got to let it burn, reduce the overburden and rot, can't stop it anyway, then maybe we can grow sustainably from there. I'm sure this messes up many plans for the short-timers, but look on the bright side, there's still a little time to recover. If it don't happen now it will just continue to smolder until it blows up bigger and hurts more later. It's the best shot at a deliverable future. It cost us 700 billion the last time we added fuel, now we just dumped 2.4 trillion on the fire, and folks wonder why it's still burning? What price next time?

I'll take my pain up front, thank you.

 

[James48843]

To hell with all of it.

First, I'm going to start with the 25 year old Scotch.


Haven't have such a wild ride in the market since....well, I managed to jump out of the 2008 crash pretty much- only lost a few percent in that one before I became toast. No, I haven't had it this good since the crash of 1987.

So here is a toast, to the once-in-twenty-five year shellacking- so here is a nice 25-year old Chivas that was put into the bottle just before the last time I had it this good.



Next, I'm gonna take that piggy friend of Burro's, and I'm going to create something unusually nice with him.


Say, about 12 hours worth, maybe more.


Round, and round and round.



Weeeeee.. Wee Weeeeeeeeee. Weee Weeeeeeeeeee.

 

[Blarney]

I want my illegitimate baby and my government check.

That pretty much says it all for this country or what is left (pardon the pun) of it. We can always count on Perma Bull Birch... Hell, someone at least needs to be optimistic. Reps to you for staying the course. Not saying I'm doing the same though.... I can admit when I'm wrong and haven't read the tea leaves correctly. Man, those tea leaves reminds me of our friend who is no longer with us