coolhand's Account Talk

[airlift]

CH,
What signs are you looking at to decide whether to deploy some funds to the stock funds before November 30? Tia.

 

[coolhand]

My short term system went to a buy on Friday, but it was on very low volume and the signal itself is weak and not something I'd act on when the SS is on a sell. Sentiment has beared up a bit, but not across-the-board. The big concern I have right now is the huge spike in the 10-day OEX P/C (bearish). I've said before that I'm anticipating volatility and that hasn't changed, but I also think we make new lows before we make new highs.

If we get a big sell-off today or tomorrow I might consider a partial move to stocks to take advantage of that volatility, but most of my capital will remain in the G fund.

CH,
What signs are you looking at to decide whether to deploy some funds to the stock funds before November 30? Tia.

 

[airlift]

Good answer! Thank you. The reason I asked is because I think that you were going to wait for the Futures this Monday morning. Of note, this am CNBC Europe (Ch 125) was reporting the Futures without direct consistency to the Futures reported by CNBC USA (Ch 25). I surmise that one of those numbers is wrong.... Right now they are ugly (Ch. 25)

 

[coolhand]

Once again the inability to "phase" purchases forces me to play it safe. I'll be more inclined to buy this "dip" if we get some follow-through tomorrow.

 

[kodaq2001]

i'm feeling the same way. i got an itchy trigger finger right now, but i think i'm gonna wait and stay in g funds for now.

 

[coolhand]

After yesterday, there's now an outside chance the market makes a significant move to the upside. But it's an outside chance. It may simply be the expected volatility causing shifts in various market indicators. I may rebalance today for the new month, but I won't know for sure till later in the morning.

i'm feeling the same way. i got an itchy trigger finger right now, but i think i'm gonna wait and stay in g funds for now.

 

[coolhand]

Corporate bond sales worldwide are tumbling

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...th-since-lehman-aftermath-credit-markets.html

Japan Unemployment Rises, Output Falls, Showing Risk Economy May Contract

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-falls-showing-risk-economy-may-contract.html

Banks Resisting Fannie, Freddie Demands to Buy Back Mortgages

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-repurchase-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-loans.html

Consultant of 'Expert Network' Is Probed

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...15746.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Attack by WikiLeaks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...90285411052.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Chinese Selloff Intensifies As Traders Expect Imminent Rate Hike Following China State Council Comments

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ch...nent-rate-hike-following-china-state-council-

Wikileaks Next Target: "A Big US Bank"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wikileaks-next-target-big-us-bank

Splits in Euro Zone Emerge Amid Debt Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/30/business/global/30euro.html?_r=2&ref=business

Obama administration is weak in the face of WikiLeaks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/29/AR2010112902474.html

US Senate fails to repeal unpopular tax provision

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2922099620101130

Hedge fund manager Mark Hart bets on China as the next 'enormous credit bubble' to burst

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...the-next-enormous-credit-bubble-to-burst.html

 

[airlift]

CH,
I see you posteda link to an article re: wikileaks next target- a big U.S.Bank. My wife saw a discussion in the Scarborough morning show (Cable). I don't know how this is impacting the markets. Just be aware that the uncertainty could make this correction longer than we expect. The uncorroborated info is that it involves more than one big bank, an that the Street is in some sort of panic. Don't anyone panic, just keep tabs on this news before you make your IFT moves! Is all of this true? I donlt know.

 

[coolhand]

Things are getting really crazy. I was musing that the unusual trading activity at the close on Friday might be related to the wiki thing. But there's no shortage of "issues".

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40431286

CH,
I see you posteda link to an article re: wikileaks next target- a big U.S.Bank. My wife saw a discussion in the Scarborough morning show (Cable). I don't know how this is impacting the markets. Just be aware that the uncertainty could make this correction longer than we expect. The uncorroborated info is that it involves more than one big bank, an that the Street is in some sort of panic. Don't anyone panic, just keep tabs on this news before you make your IFT moves! Is all of this true? I donlt know.

 

[coolhand]

Reallocated my TSP today. Sold the F fund and added 15% each to C and S. G fund is now 70%. This begins the new month tomorrow with some stock exposure as I believe a bounce is still coming this week. Today's weakness, if it holds, may be a good short term entry point. I also think lower lows are still coming, but it's looking like it's going to be a battle to get them.

 

[crws]

Reallocated my TSP today. Sold the F fund and added 15% each to C and S. G fund is now 70%. This begins the new month tomorrow with some stock exposure as I believe a bounce is still coming this week. Today's weakness, if it holds, may be a good short term entry point. I also think lower lows are still coming, but it's looking like it's going to be a battle to get them.

This month I'm sitting tight in F for a little longer...
I told myself I was going to hop back on board ASAP, but the green sky reins supreme....
edit..
POMO today, and Gold futures are on the march, after significantly wavering over the last couple weeks.

 

[coolhand]

I only had a 15% allocation in F, which I held for a good while (for me). It was a loser to a small extent and I just don't trust bonds now. But they're holding their own just like stocks. Still, not many are making money in this market with the volalile action.

This month I'm sitting tight in F for a little longer...
I told myself I was going to hop back on board ASAP, but the green sky reins supreme....

 

[crws]

I only had a 15% allocation in F, which I held for a good while (for me). It was a loser to a small extent and I just don't trust bonds now. But they're holding their own just like stocks. Still, not many are making money in this market with the volalile action.

currency commodities seem to be the current playground, with market cycles/range driven only by dollar value, it seems.

 

[crws]

speak of the Devil
Is the tide turning?
Commentary: 99-week streak of bond fund inflows has come to end

 

[Birchtree]

I say rip mom and pop a new one - they should've known better than to cut and run to the bond market. Now where will the money go - equities and they'll float all my boats.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101130_dispatch_china_considers_options_after_north_korean_strike

 

[coolhand]

Here's Don's thoughts about today's trading.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=125776

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday I closed my short positions in my brokerage account and I added a relatively modest long position in TSP (15% each in C and S) as we had a set-up that looked relatively bearish in the sentinels. And our sentinment survey is on a buy too. That same set-up at the end of August led to another blast higher. This morning, futures are much higher. I'm looking to see if an expected gap up to start the day's trading will hold, or will sellers step in to take it back down? If we rally and hold through the day, we may be entering another sustained move higher. If that happens the Sentinels may flip back to a buy at some point depending on how much strength (if any) we see.

 

[crws]

Yesterday I closed my short positions in my brokerage account and I added a relatively modest long position in TSP (15% each in C and S) as we had a set-up that looked relatively bearish in the sentinels. And our sentinment survey is on a buy too. That same set-up at the end of August led to another blast higher. This morning, futures are much higher. I'm looking to see if an expected gap up to start the day's trading will hold, or will sellers step in to take it back down? If we rally and hold through the day, we may be entering another sustained move higher. If that happens the Sentinels may flip back to a buy at some point depending on how much strength (if any) we see.

Nice trade there.

 

[coolhand]

I am still on the fence about today's action. Not sure if the sentinels will flip or not. We're really just back up to the top of a trading channel and that means the market is still iffy. This volatility masks the market's eventual true nature.