The pension portion of our retirement (FERS) is invested in Social Security bonds. As is the 'G Fund'. As is, obviously, the Social Security 'Lock Box'.
Do you mean that 66.67% of my future is invested in treasuries? Say it isn't so.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-13/the-risks-lurking-in-treasury-bonds.html
How's this for an investment opportunity: a guaranteed yield of 3.27 percent, with an enormous potential downside. As risky as that sounds, millions of investors are moving money into Treasury bonds as a "safe haven." In early September, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond sank to a new low of 3.27 percent, while the 10-year note fell to 1.9 percent. If the inflation rate stays anywhere close to its current modest 3.6 percent pace, long-term investors will be guaranteed to lose money after factoring in inflation's toll.
So with 1/3 of my retirement in FERS entirely dependent on government investing in treasuries and making good on past promises, and another third in Social Security entirely dependent on government investing in treasuries and making good on past promises, then the best I can do with 1/3 of my three-legged stool is put it all in the market and hope I beat inflation? That f***in sucks.
Let's say I pull half of my TSP money (my contributions) out at regular intervals and invest fully in equity plays on the private side, then I've still got only 1/3, 1/3, 1/6, 1/6 for an allocation? But if I get frugal and creative maybe I can up my private witholdings too and just for optomistic fun say it equals 0.25 G FERS, 0.25 G SS, 0.25 TSP allin limited equity plays, and 0.25 private allin fun money. Then I'm still only fully invested halfway and chained to the G return anchor including the 'full faith and credit' guarantee?
Oh sh*t. This is bad.
Now I'm invested all the way in both TSP and outside accounts down to the tune about minus 6% but it's only half of my total future security portfolio so that's really only -3% overall, if my G fund passive investments break even. But they don't so add about, umm, some more negatives to that scenario and I come out losing about 5% overall. Not too bad for being way too reckless and mostly always wrong with my allocation decisions.
You mean I can be way f'd up, consistently, and still only lose 1 out of 20? cool. I'd just as soon be down 5 exercising my choices for a chance than down 1 below break even after inflation cowering in the negative safety of 'safety'.
Thank goodness I've got a hedge of sorts, all this while Mr. Long has been busy protecting myself. Besides, it's not like I'm going to hurt a whole bunch more being only able to buy 19/20 instead of 20/20 of below zero.
And I still plan on getting a free coffee mug in my future.