China

[Talltimber]

It must be all that LEAD in their toys. The whole country is hopped up on Lead infected toys

Stay away from the green Aqua dots. The green Aqua dots are bad. I have tickets for the Olympics, see ya there. As far as investments I can recommend Roast duck (old school only) and beer.

 

[Tempest]

Petro China, (#2 largest company based on market value) was recently unloaded by Warren Buffet because of what he explained as 'valuation'. His explanation speaks for itself. PetroChina sports a PE of 23 while Exxon Mobil, the world's #1 company based on market value carries a PE of 13.

If smartest money in the world is unloading his China holdings, imagine what's going to happen when the rest of the world tries to unload their peice of China.

That 'ole pirate

He can be the Captain of my ship any day. HAR!

 

[Bullitt]

Tempest, off topic but maybe you know why. I always wonder why Buffett invests in stocks/companies that issue dividends but his Berkshire Hathaway has only given one dividend payment in it's lifetime.

This was in yesterday's WSJ regarding the Chinese Stock Market.

"Bullish appetite for China Begins to Wane"
Mutual-fund managers have had a good run with Chinese stocks, but some are now backing off, saying China's market is a bubble that will burst sooner rather than later.

www.wsj.com

 

[Tempest]

"Tempest, off topic but maybe you know why. I always wonder why Buffett invests in stocks/companies that issue dividends but his Berkshire Hathaway has only given one dividend payment in it's lifetime.
Tempest, off topic but maybe you know why. I always wonder why Buffett invests in stocks/companies that issue dividends."

-Bullitt

Your not asking a lot are you? ;^) My take
As we all know Buffet picks companies that have good value (duh)-he understands a good bottom-line is created by good management-he doesn’t tinker with what works.’. That is a core belief in his management style. If the company issues dividends and has good value per his criteria there's nothing wrong with that.

‘but his Berkshire Hathaway has only given one dividend payment in its lifetime.’

Berkshire-Hathaway is HIS ‘Company’ where he puts his personal stamp.
That works for him.
Philosophical-now remember this guru-lives a simple life style-he practices what he lives; He thinks capital gains taxes are too low and eschews the protection paying dividends gives. Remember Buffet was the one that advised Schwartnegger to Repeal Prop 13 in California because he thought it was inequitable in its tax distribution and California just needed more revenue for it's programs. He recognizes the social utility of tax-something a lot of rich, middleclass and poor people do not or don’t want to understand.
That’s his strength he can hold 2 diametrical opposed ideas in his head-understand them and live them. A Guru-not a Fanatic. He’s a Yoda. He’s always balancing. The Real Deal.

As for China-he's a contrarian. Remember his stance on the Tech Bubble.

As an aside T. Boone Pickens didn’t think China was worth the trouble.


Airbus in 'bama. You'll see.

 

[Bullitt]

In an interview with Buffett he was asked why his company only issued a dividend that one time. His response was something to the effect, "I excused myself from the board meeting that day and they voted for the dividend when I wasn't there."

 

[Tempest]

You know-I actually believe him.

 

[Bullitt]

Consumer inflation in China is being driven by food prices, which rose 18.2 per cent from a year earlier in November, but underlying inflation was at 1.4 per cent - the highest this year - because of higher oil, coal and utility prices.The government views runaway inflation as a serious threat to social and political stability. In its efforts to curb soaring prices has raised interest rates six times this year.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/871c9990-b742-11dc-aa38-0000779fd2ac.html

 

[Bullitt]

Americans may well be delighted by new figures that show China's GDP is 40% smaller than previously thought.

http://economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10329268

 

[Bullitt]

Shanghai Composite Index showing major signs of fatigue. It just failed to make a higher high and appears to be starting a downtrend. What effect will it's demise have on the US?

 

[Bullitt]

Many (Chinese) investors are operating on the belief that the government will not allow a stock market crash before the Olympic games get underway this summer, out of fear that a social crisis would spoil the country’s highly anticipated coming-out party.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/b...ref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=login&oref=slogin

 

[Bullitt]

Jim Rogers thinks the big one is coming. In fact he's so convinced of it that he's obnoxiously telling the world that he's short selling the entire US Stock Market. According to him, China is a goldmine in it's infancy stages. He's even gone as far as moving his family to Singapore.

Could you imagine that? How many illegal Chinamen get smuggled into the US every day and this guy is so disgruntled that he moves abroad. As if his first billion $$ wasn't enough, he just wants to be closer to the Chinese investment opportunities. Watch your back Jim, the PRC MSS is always looking for easy targets.

The worst possible phrase in investing- "It's different this time."

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/new...gers.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008020307

 

[Fivetears]

China Turns to Economic Controls
China Returns to Communist-Style Controls to Cool Inflation in Market Economy
Fighting stubbornly high inflation, China's leaders dusted off a blunt tool from its pre-market reform era and commanded utility companies to freeze electricity prices. Households got temporary relief after that September order, but the capitalist-style economy produced unwanted consequences. Coal shortages cropped up as power companies cut back on buying and mines reduced production. Freak snowstorms over the past month caught power plants with dangerously low stocks, resulting in blackouts and factory shutdowns.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080210/china_commanding_the_economy.html

 

[Bullitt]

Well we can't say we weren't warned. China is currently down 40% from it's November 2007 high.

 

[Bullitt]

More warning signs from China. We can blame it on the China CB tightening, but the fact is, there has been distribution for weeks now. First line of support blown out, 50 DMA gone, 200 DMA taken out, and bearish 50/200 cross all but certain. Looks like there might have been a little H&S break in there as well.

Be careful before investing based on bullish headlines from China.

View attachment 8042

 

[James48843]

China- it's the bank policies announced there this week. Tightening of credit.

we'll see. Not looking good.

 

[Bullitt]

Bulls continue to tout the success of China, aka, the Growth Engine of the Galaxy. Have no fear, China is buying up commodities and even though their exports are down exponentially, it's ok, because it's different this time with ultra low rates. Well, a peek into the news shows that China is crushing speculators and while they haven't publicly identified a bubble, they are taking steps to squash it, unlike our fearless leaders. I see NOTHING bullish about this chart. 2800 gap to be filled at the very least, but bulls will hold on until 2600 is breached. Of course, once it's breached, they'll probably keep buying anyway because by then they'll actually believe they can do it without China.

View attachment 9198

 

[Silverbird]

China's model worked fine as long as its customers had bottomless borrowing. You can't export your way out of a problem if a substantial percentage of your customers are out of work and the other's can't/won't borrow, at least until your customers are in better shape. The EU is a larger market than the U.S. for China, so it's not just the U.S. I'm talking about here.

Although they are trying to get out of their stimulus program (which has been going on for some time now in high tech) because it keeps inefficient companies in business, those same businesses keep people employed. They are importing more commodities to make more stuff.

Now they are trying to start an "Idigenous Innovation" program, which of course, makes foreign businesses even more leery about buying their stuff or doing business over there. And of course, even the smell of it (conflicting and ever-changing details as the idea morphs) makes their trading partners p.oed because even the idea smells of breaking trade treaties. This on top of intellectual property problems.

Where are they going to sell their stuff?
How will they keep people employed?
Too much spending on too many big internal projects will give them Japan syndrone


A very difficult balancing act!

 

[Bullitt]

Shanghai Red Chips rolled over again last night. Markets cannot rally if liquidations are taking place in China.

 

[Birchtree]

China still has a 9% GDP - everyone is so emotional. It's all an over reaction.

 

[crws]

China still has a 9% GDP - everyone is so emotional. It's all an over reaction.

I say...
China still has a 9% GDP - everyone is so emotional. It's all a necessary over reaction.