Carnac's Corner

I suppose I should say that was 8.3% max on their recommendations...meaning any negative days were not counted....its 3.7% with recommendations that turned negative....but still, the last month has been incredible ......

Tech, you gotta think how that sounds to most of us. Let's replace your crystal with Birchtree. All year last year, he recommended the C Fund. Announcing the system your way, we could claim that Birchtree's system would've been over 100% last year. Then later clear it up by saying, "Well, if we discount the negative days and were only in for positive days on the C Fund, then Birchtree's system would've given us a 100% or more return last year." All we need to do is tweak Birchtree to tell us exactly which days are up and which days are down. As of now, he's right about 68% of the time. I believe that's about the same ratio as up days vs total days.
 
Tech, you gotta think how that sounds to most of us. Let's replace your crystal with Birchtree. All year last year, he recommended the C Fund. Announcing the system your way, we could claim that Birchtree's system would've been over 100% last year. Then later clear it up by saying, "Well, if we discount the negative days and were only in for positive days on the C Fund, then Birchtree's system would've given us a 100% or more return last year." All we need to do is tweak Birchtree to tell us exactly which days are up and which days are down. As of now, he's right about 68% of the time. I believe that's about the same ratio as up days vs total days.

I was actually given an idea of how progressive the market had been over the last month.......and how the Crystal Balls see it.....if you have a problem with the returns of the Crystal Balls then that's you're business....but maybe you should take them for a target on your system....I don't have any problem with your monkeys or ebbtracker's, because as I see it, I know its very possible and its being proven on daily basis.....

Maybe you have a problem on the performance of the Crystal Balls that I haven't fully revealed as of yet.....but I am in process of doing so.....I'm still on a learning curve with them....and it will take some more time to adjust to their trends.......its very encouraging....as a matter of fact I asked them to relearn this morning for current trends (they are semi-Artificial intelligent)....so I would before you make an unfounded remark.....stay tuned for future results.....it would be good tack.....

Still, 8.3% or so in a month is something to pay attention too....and if you're not getting that, you should be aiming that way.....
 
fabijo,

Very well said - I actually didn't catch it the first time. The problem with my system is you know there is going to be an imminent blindside - it's just a question of when. They are tolerable and acceptable - but I was beginning to forget what real pain felt like, it's good for character. But that doesn't mean I have to enjoy the pain, does it? Sugar help.
 
I don't really have a problem with your system at all. I was just addressing the way you presented the returns. By saying that the recommendations gave 8.3% returns, it leads one to believe that they would have 8.3% returns if they followed all the recommendations. But then you said that it was really 3.7% returns if you count the days that the recommendations were negative.

All I'm saying is that is true for most systems. If you discount the negative days, many systems will have great returns. I want your system to succeed. I don't have a problem with it. It's just misleading to say that your system generates 8.3% in a month, when really you only counted the days that the system was correct.

Either way, I still believe your system is giving great results. 3.7% in a month is great. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you mean by 8.3% if you ignore the down days.

As far as my monkeys, I'm very open about how it works. There's no magic and no predicting involved. If the S&P's 75 day EMA is greater than the 180 day EMA, the monkey goes to either the C,S,I. It chooses the one that has the fastest movement (up or down) in the past couple of days. If the S&P 75 is less than 180, then it checks to see if the 3 day EMA is greater than the 19 day EMA. If so, it goes to the C,S,I. If neither of those are true, then it goes to G or F based on which one of the two is moving faster.

That's it. That's my system. No magic. No mysterious clouds around my decisions. No vague talk. I am clueless about the market. That's the whole reason I made a simple set of rules to follow.
 
I don't really have a problem with your system at all. I was just addressing the way you presented the returns. By saying that the recommendations gave 8.3% returns, it leads one to believe that they would have 8.3% returns if they followed all the recommendations. But then you said that it was really 3.7% returns if you count the days that the recommendations were negative.

All I'm saying is that is true for most systems. If you discount the negative days, many systems will have great returns. I want your system to succeed. I don't have a problem with it. It's just misleading to say that your system generates 8.3% in a month, when really you only counted the days that the system was correct.

Either way, I still believe your system is giving great results. 3.7% in a month is great. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you mean by 8.3% if you ignore the down days.

As far as my monkeys, I'm very open about how it works. There's no magic and no predicting involved. If the S&P's 75 day EMA is greater than the 180 day EMA, the monkey goes to either the C,S,I. It chooses the one that has the fastest movement (up or down) in the past couple of days. If the S&P 75 is less than 180, then it checks to see if the 3 day EMA is greater than the 19 day EMA. If so, it goes to the C,S,I. If neither of those are true, then it goes to G or F based on which one of the two is moving faster.

That's it. That's my system. No magic. No mysterious clouds around my decisions. No vague talk. I am clueless about the market. That's the whole reason I made a simple set of rules to follow.

Well I mentioned it before that I would lose almost 50% of gains if I did include all the negative returns, I mentioned the 8.3% for a goal of what's possible with the CB's and I tried to better clarify that with the later post....I was busy this morning so the early post was short ....

This last several weeks have been very educational...I saw the weakness and just improved on the system because of it.....so next time maybe I won't be blindsided as much as I have been of late.....it was worth sitting to the side and studying what transpired.....
 
Tech's system is proprietary and we will never know it. Unless we subscribe when he opens his Carnac for TSP website. And even then we will only get his surface details. Can't give up the secrets of success. Right?
 
Tech's system is proprietary and we will never know it. Unless we subscribe when he opens his Carnac for TSP website. And even then we will only get his surface details. Can't give up the secrets of success. Right?

I highly doubt that I would do so....I don't have the time.....I just want the return it may give me if I get it right....
 
Well I mentioned it before that I would lose almost 50% of gains if I did include all the negative returns, I mentioned the 8.3% for a goal of what's possible with the CB's and I tried to better clarify that with the later post.

I can see why that would be exciting and something worth sharing. It just came across as a misleading way of reporting gains.
 
I can see why that would be exciting and something worth sharing. It just came across as a misleading way of reporting gains.
I wasn't trying to mislead....it was just short and that's why I posted a fuller explaination later....

Currently, the CB's don't like the current picture...it would be good to hold for a few days at least....maybe your system will see something similar....
 
maybe your system will see something similar....

nah. My system doesn't really "see" anything. Like I said, if I followed the system, I would not have been in the G or F since March of 2003 - not even for a day.

As far as my hopes of creating the monkey mayhem program, all I have is some ideas written down. No code has been written yet. I only did some rough trials in Excel that weren't very fruitful.
 
I was surprised yesteday on the I fund at end of day numbers...it seems that the daylight saving time has really gotten it messed up...

I have noticed for the last week or so that the I fund approx I have has been close...yesterday it had the I down 2 pennies, today its down 13 pennies...

I'll try to post it as comparison data.....at least until things get back on track.....hopefully that will be soon.....

Carnac
 
I is barely even this morning....

The Crystal Balls are saying the time is due and we should see some negative action coming our way over the next several days..........only fund with fairly good odds of a return is the "F".....

Carnac
 
Crystal Balls are speculating we may have a - FV today on the I fund....meaning a positive FV tomorrow....
And just why would it be a -FV with the dollar down and looks like the OS markets higher than the US markets? Maybe I am thinging backwards or something?:confused:
 
Crystal Balls are speculating we may have a - FV today on the I fund....meaning a positive FV tomorrow....

If that does happen then US markets will have to have fallen fairly hard. Then what you are chasing is probably going to break you even because OSM's will probably follow US down. I am not staying in the I to see. I'll take what I got and go. 1 day pit stop.
 
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