Carnac's Corner

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I kinda agree with y'all too. If the fears were from Greenspan, Iran, the attempted take out of Chaney, etc, its mostly hyped fear, not fear based on bad econ data. Greenspan never said there was definitley a correction coming in the near future just a possbility of one. So, I'm leaning on buying the fear! Doesn't feel like last May.
 
Agreed. If everyone is talking about a eminent correction, that's when I doubt that one will happen. I would be more worried if everyone was praising this bull market to no end. Don't mistake this whipsaw as a correction.
 
Don't be surprised if more level heads step in and bring us all the way back and perhaps into positive territory. The Chinese index was up parabolic and needed correcting - doesn't affect our undervalued market from a fundamental perspective. It's days like this that make me wish I had some available cash without having to sacrifice a beauty to get some. Maybe next week we'll do a sacrifice and do some choice buying. Snort.
 
VirginiaBob said:
Agreed. If everyone is talking about a eminent correction, that's when I doubt that one will happen. I would be more worried if everyone was praising this bull market to no end. Don't mistake this whipsaw as a correction.
Click to expand...

I noticed the DOW vol are almost 45 min ahead from yesterday and last week......but the S&P and the Wilshire seem to be normal.....even the EFA and AGG don't seem to be outlandish.....

It will be a consideration to sell....but I'm not convinced its selling time....might be a good time to buy though!!!!

Carnac
 
The_Technician said:
I noticed the DOW vol are almost 45 min ahead from yesterday and last week......but the S&P and the Wilshire seem to be normal.....even the EFA and AGG don't seem to be outlandish.....

It will be a consideration to sell....but I'm not convinced its selling time....might be a good time to buy though!!!!

Carnac
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Also, forgot, I noticed that the OSM and dollar have stabilized....EZ seem to be dropping a bit more before close but I wouldn't bet it'd be much more........
 
The_Technician said:
Also, forgot, I noticed that the OSM and dollar have stabilized....EZ seem to be dropping a bit more before close but I wouldn't bet it'd be much more........
Click to expand...
Another viewpoint....I see nothing unusual with today than what happened in the first and last of Nov and Jan.....it seems in cycle on the near term....could be just a good time to buy in....I did noticed that the market was having a tough time getting down yesterday as I was expecting........right at the moment, I'm staying in.....

Carnac
 
The_Technician said:
Another viewpoint....I see nothing unusual with today than what happened in the first and last of Nov and Jan.....it seems in cycle on the near term....could be just a good time to buy in....I did noticed that the market was having a tough time getting down yesterday as I was expecting........right at the moment, I'm staying in.....

Carnac
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Even though I still think its not going to be a drastic correction at this time, it would be tackfully smart to get out.....you can never be sure....and staying in would just be certifiying you're a maniac....

Carnac
 
fabijo said:
Then I'll be a maniac. I've got a monkey that loves pain.
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PAIN is what you're gonna get...:D ..it looks like....I'm now convinced that we are in that correction....its been a dive all day.....At cutoff, I was afraid that the market psychology would bleed over and it looks to have.....

Let's see what is 6.89% - 3.xxx% today.....uhhhh, I just don't wanna think about it....I knew those Crystal Balls were smoking yesterday and I should've listen!!!:laugh: Monkeys went an hid somewhere....they afraid they will be a hanging around other than by their hands if I catch up to em.....

Carnac
 
Well nothing like being blindsided....I don't care what monkeys/crystal balls you may have, you just can't detect being blindsided....(monkeys are looking this a way thinking, hey, maybe I won't get hung after all!)

OSM's seem to be suffering and the dollar is barely up...I think it would be wise to sit out until a better buying opportunity comes up.....there is just too much negative reasons for the market to rebound any at all (except for short term corrections) for the next 6 months or more.......we'll know more in the next several days, but it looks like yesterdays action firmly said enough!

I firmly believe after watchin yesterdays slide and OSM's this morning we're back to Sept 2000 again....

Worst thing you can do it this situation is have a trigger finger on a risky situation....best to come back and fight when the situation is in your favor...

The thing about percentages is they are always there when the system is in your favor....so its worth sitting and waiting it out until you have better odds.

Carnac
 
Like 2000?

I am not seeing the same thing.

I think this is more of a shakeout than a longer term downturn.

"I" fund still has more downside to come, but the question I am debating is, domestically, have we seen all there is, or will a bouce today just be a dead cat bouce, with more downside ahead. After all, all we lost yesterday was to put us back to February 13th or so levels. The next big support is far lower than here, another 4 percent, at least.

We have two and a half hours to decide what to do for today.

Good luck all....
 
... i heard the talking heads, I think it was Kudlow on CNBC, say that Bernanke has said that he'd like to see some of the global liquidity that has favored the OSMs come over the USMs, and that days like yesterday are what needs to happen for this to occur. Econ picture still strong for USMs.
 
James48843 said:
Like 2000?

I am not seeing the same thing.

I think this is more of a shakeout than a longer term downturn.

"I" fund still has more downside to come, but the question I am debating is, domestically, have we seen all there is, or will a bouce today just be a dead cat bouce, with more downside ahead. After all, all we lost yesterday was to put us back to February 13th or so levels. The next big support is far lower than here, another 4 percent, at least.

We have two and a half hours to decide what to do for today.

Good luck all....
Click to expand...

Maybe so....but thats what they said in 2000....

I'm not advocating to just sit by and never look for opportunity, but its definitely not the right time with any odds for buying back in ...I'll be looking for opportunity, but its gonna come in its own time....

I believe the I fund is down another 2% this morning or down 46 pennies....so patience is a virtue, right Z...

Carnac
 
fedgolfer said:
... i heard the talking heads, I think it was Kudlow on CNBC, say that Bernanke has said that he'd like to see some of the global liquidity that has favored the OSMs come over the USMs, and that days like yesterday are what needs to happen for this to occur. Econ picture still strong for USMs.
Click to expand...


I would go for that....as a matter of fact I've been saying something of the sort for over a year now.....we here in the US are just going thru too much financial deprivevity and its going to threaten the worlds stability if we continue down the "lets bring along the third world countries scenario" at a rapid rate....this is a true control system theory project of immense proportions and the feed back loop in the system is being severly overlooked....growth around the world has to happen at a regulated rate for the world to remain stabilized....so Bernanke and Greespan need to take a closer look at the system on the whole and get a grip of what is happening to the output.....:worried:

And so forth....and those who have trigger fingers should take a step back and be careful at this point....:blink:

Carnac
 
The_Technician said:
I would go for that....as a matter of fact I've been saying something of the sort for over a year now.....we here in the US are just going thru too much financial deprivevity and its going to threaten the worlds stability if we continue down the "lets bring along the third world countries scenario" at a rapid rate....this is a true control system theory project of immense proportions and the feed back loop in the system is being severly overlooked....growth around the world has to happen at a regulated rate for the world to remain stabilized....so Bernanke and Greespan need to take a closer look at the system on the whole and get a grip of what is happening to the output.....:worried:

And so forth....and those who have trigger fingers should take a step back and be careful at this point....:blink:

Carnac
Click to expand...
If things go to worse, I see the Crystal Ball is giving bottoms of 1310 and 600 for the S&P AND C FUND
 
The_Technician said:
If things go to worse, I see the Crystal Ball is giving bottoms of 1310 and 600 for the S&P AND C FUND
Click to expand...
An hour ago the I was down 3 to 4 pennies, now its down 14 pennies....OSM's are taken a big hit.....while the dollar lost value - down 5 cents.....

Patience is a virtue.....

CARNAC
 
The_Technician said:
I just seen the I down 31 pennies or 1.5%.....down 5% in just a few days.....

Patience my friends patience...

CARNAC
Click to expand...

This afternoons recovery is showing its weakness, tempting many would be investors trying to make a big payoff on misopportunity.......I expect we're going down again over the next several days....the crystal balls are looking for the market to close below 1380 on the S&P.....

CARNAC
 
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