Carnac's Corner

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All four components of the Ferdinand seismograph are showing rumbling spikes to the upside - a harbinger of something to come. Be prepared to catch the train.
 
Inorder to really learn anything in this game you have to take it on the chin from time to time. You'll be surprised how good you'll feel when you recover.
 
We might hold tight thru Jan. but obviously the VXO dropping well below 10 like in mid december and end of november we saw some short term corrections but what makes me nervous is when you look longer term at the S&P 500 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) the S&P 500 is very overbought as the current RSI value are getting pretty high. In the past we've seen a 5 to 10% pull back. Not saying it's going to happen but definitely be on the lookout.

white
 
White,

Good to see you post. I've been waiting for a pummelling but so far it's just the rope a dope. Sooner or later the good ole blind side will hit - but not when many are `looking for that to happen. Let's do 100 points today and tomorrow.
 
Gonna predict whats in the envelope for the next several days....

The monkeys are dancing on the Crystal Balls again....they think it worth trying the I fund....its a tricky situation though.....its counting on the C fund to do well over the next several days, which should encourage the I to do well ....combined with the $ losing value without an interest rate change.....;)

Only one way to find out....

Carnac
 
The Crystal Balls say move out for the moment....Hopefully the $ losing value will help things out overseas, but I believe their markets may take a rest....;)


Carnac
 
I agree that the falling dollar might help the I fund. Gonna join you on the lily pad but will hedge 20% to the I. I gotta try to catch you somehow..:o

Beachrat
 
Here is the Technicians magic rule: You will only find a price pattern trending maybe 20% of the time which leaves 80% of the time in correction or consolidation. The herd will blow by him leaving a wake that will shake the lilly pad.
 
Birchtree said:
Here is the Technicians magic rule: You will only find a price pattern trending maybe 20% of the time which leaves 80% of the time in correction or consolidation. The herd will blow by him leaving a wake that will shake the lilly pad.
Click to expand...

?????....Birchy, I have no idea what you are referring to....maybe you are so far invested in you are scared to death of any movement out of the C and S funds....
 
The_Technician said:
?????....Birchy, I have no idea what you are referring to....maybe you are so far invested in you are scared to death of any movement out of the C and S funds....
Click to expand...

The Crystal Ball sez that it will be a surprise if the market gains much at all....

I can't wait myself.....

Carnac
 
The_Technician said:
The Crystal Ball sez that it will be a surprise if the market gains much at all....

I can't wait myself.....

Carnac
Click to expand...

See my post in the I thread raising the question of the FV today. I had the I up 8 cents at noon cutoff due to the dollar sinking in the last hour or so.......I speculate that we may have gotten a 4 cent FV if any.....can anybody else verify this......
 
The_Technician said:
See my post in the I thread raising the question of the FV today. I had the I up 8 cents at noon cutoff due to the dollar sinking in the last hour or so.......I speculate that we may have gotten a 4 cent FV if any.....can anybody else verify this......
Click to expand...

Got the answer...I didn't think of look'n at the MSCI...brain lapse.....its just I never look at the MSCI....I now speculate that the data input from Yahoo and INo could have been off since the calculations never change.....and I do know that Yahoo has a habit of not refreshing properly....saw it yesterday.....also saw the same on INO yesterday.....

With the + FV yesterday I speculate the USM will be nil or rather negative pulling down the market overall....

Looks like we could be in for a market rest coming up...
 
You know the lead return for Jan was only 4% or so this month....think about this, there was 11% available to gain.....we all missed out on another 7%.:mad:

This rally might be better described as the Eveready Energizer Bunny rally.
 
The_Technician said:
You know the lead return for Jan was only 4% or so this month....think about this, there was 11% available to gain.....we all missed out on another 7%.:mad:

This rally might be better described as the Eveready Energizer Bunny rally.
Click to expand...

This is an interesting figure for sure. I mean 4% is great I thought, but knowing that 11% is available is really a surprise for me with all this.

How does one get or understand how there was 11% available for the month of Jan? Is this a projection from the beginning of the month? Can one project or get available percentages for the following month/months also?

Interesting.
 
I believe the idea is that if you were invested in the winningest fund each day, you could have earned 11%. (I added it up and came up with 9.36%... but my numbers might be off.)

Daily share prices are available at www.tsp.gov .

j
 
jayhawker said:
I believe the idea is that if you were invested in the winningest fund each day, you could have earned 11%. (I added it up and came up with 9.36%... but my numbers might be off.)

Daily share prices are available at www.tsp.gov .

j
Click to expand...

Are u sure you included all the funds.........just find out how much % change is each day for each fund from the previous day, take the max between them for that day and add....should be simple enough....I take my data right from the tsp gov site....you should get similar numbers

We're leaving way too much on the table...
 
The_Technician said:
Are u sure you included all the funds.........just find out how much % change is each day for each fund from the previous day, take the max between them for that day and add....should be simple enough....I take my data right from the tsp gov site....you should get similar numbers

We're leaving way too much on the table...
Click to expand...

100% in the best performing fund each day is, dare I say it, impossible. I will sign over my entire account balance to anyone that can do it. I doubt even 75% of the time is doable.
 
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