Stocks were flat and mixed on Monday as investors seemed tentative in from of this week's 2-day FOMC meeting and Wednesday's policy statement. Also, the Bank of Japan will have its input on stimulus today. The Dow gained 16-points and the Nasdaq had a small gains, while the S&P and small caps were down slightly on the day, and oil was down fairly sharply but it rallied off the late morning lows.
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With the Fed already seeing their employment criteria met, and eager to set things right with interest rates, are they ready to resume rate hikes? That would surely put some pressure on stocks. The first rate hike was basically the catalyst for the early 2016 weakness, so is the Fed willing to take that chance? The alternative is to tell us that the economy is not stable enough to withstand another hike.
The small caps (Dow Completion Index / S-fund) have improved technically but remains below the important 200-day EMA.
The price of crude oil fell below a rising support line after hitting some resistance in the 38.50 area.
The Dow Transportation Index has been on a great run but like the small caps, this market leader remains below the 200-day EMA.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) is in the same boat - in an uptrend but below the 200-day EMA.
The Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund is up against some possible strong resistance. Stocks tend to get the queue from High Yield Bonds so how it reacts to this resistance could be telling.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) remains in a bullish pennant formation and is getting closer to the apex.
Administrative Note: The March Madness Tournament Contest has started in the forum so if you have any interest in joining, please click on that link. It's free and there are prizes for the top picks.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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With the Fed already seeing their employment criteria met, and eager to set things right with interest rates, are they ready to resume rate hikes? That would surely put some pressure on stocks. The first rate hike was basically the catalyst for the early 2016 weakness, so is the Fed willing to take that chance? The alternative is to tell us that the economy is not stable enough to withstand another hike.
The S&P 500 (C-Fund) stalled at the 200-day SMA and some descending resistance coming off the two most recent peak in 2015. The rising trading channel is still intact. There are open gaps on the chart, which is rare for the index - one near 2045 and another all the way down near 1870.
The small caps (Dow Completion Index / S-fund) have improved technically but remains below the important 200-day EMA.
The price of crude oil fell below a rising support line after hitting some resistance in the 38.50 area.
The Dow Transportation Index has been on a great run but like the small caps, this market leader remains below the 200-day EMA.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) is in the same boat - in an uptrend but below the 200-day EMA.
The Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund is up against some possible strong resistance. Stocks tend to get the queue from High Yield Bonds so how it reacts to this resistance could be telling.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) remains in a bullish pennant formation and is getting closer to the apex.
Administrative Note: The March Madness Tournament Contest has started in the forum so if you have any interest in joining, please click on that link. It's free and there are prizes for the top picks.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
