imported post
This is in response to another post but it's a general response and I wanted to put it in this forum...
Bears always "sound smarter" than bulls. A bear will tell you about all these sophisticated indicators thattellyou why the market won't go up in the face of what is happening (a rising market). I am guilty of thatat times. The bulls argument on the other hand,is usually very simple, a good earnings outlook, low interest rates etc. and a strong economy.Simple, obvious observations and usually right.
After getting out of the market just prior to the last drop I looked like a genius. Then came the humbling part. My overbought/oversold indicator said we were near a bottom. If you remember Iactually got in 25% and said I was going to start "dripping in". But instead I started looking for reasons why the market would give us one more push down. One thing I said was that my indicators are sometimes early, so I decided to wait.Basically, if you are looking for reasons for the market to go down, you will find one. I plead guilty again.
Right now that overbought/oversold indicator is deep into overbought territory. As we saw in January, that doesn't always mean the market is going to come right down. You may get a down day or two, or even just flat action and that indicator can slowly come back down to neutral or oversold without much of a sell off.
So basically, try not to take what you are hearing as gospel. Things look good for the year ahead. If you opted to follow my short term strategy rather than the longer term strategy (The longer term strategy said it was time to get100% in stocks on Mar 24) you are probably not fully invested. Be patient and look for opportunities to get in. There is no need to chase but if we have a weak day or two,maybe get 25 - 50% in. To get back to oversold may take a few days to a week or two.But like I said, that doesn't mean the markets will have to crash to get there.
Tom
This is in response to another post but it's a general response and I wanted to put it in this forum...
Bears always "sound smarter" than bulls. A bear will tell you about all these sophisticated indicators thattellyou why the market won't go up in the face of what is happening (a rising market). I am guilty of thatat times. The bulls argument on the other hand,is usually very simple, a good earnings outlook, low interest rates etc. and a strong economy.Simple, obvious observations and usually right.
After getting out of the market just prior to the last drop I looked like a genius. Then came the humbling part. My overbought/oversold indicator said we were near a bottom. If you remember Iactually got in 25% and said I was going to start "dripping in". But instead I started looking for reasons why the market would give us one more push down. One thing I said was that my indicators are sometimes early, so I decided to wait.Basically, if you are looking for reasons for the market to go down, you will find one. I plead guilty again.
Right now that overbought/oversold indicator is deep into overbought territory. As we saw in January, that doesn't always mean the market is going to come right down. You may get a down day or two, or even just flat action and that indicator can slowly come back down to neutral or oversold without much of a sell off.
So basically, try not to take what you are hearing as gospel. Things look good for the year ahead. If you opted to follow my short term strategy rather than the longer term strategy (The longer term strategy said it was time to get100% in stocks on Mar 24) you are probably not fully invested. Be patient and look for opportunities to get in. There is no need to chase but if we have a weak day or two,maybe get 25 - 50% in. To get back to oversold may take a few days to a week or two.But like I said, that doesn't mean the markets will have to crash to get there.
Tom
It's saying maybe another day or two of upward action before it becomes to tough to be out. Then we will get a sell signal. 
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