Bullish or Bearish in January?

[JerBer]

imported post

Looks like the jobs report and the minutes from the last Fed meeting will play a role in whether this thing gets a jump start or not!

Playing the seasonality cardin 2005 didn't seem to work, seemed like I was always a day or two off! It would be nice if 2006 wouldcooperate! Just give me a few solid days of gains and I'll retreat.....hey wait a minute! This sounds a lot like last year!

Deja vu all over again!

Happy New Year Everybody!!!

Best of Luck in 2006!!!

JerBer

 

[robo]

I'm bullish and bearish... I'm just not sure of the order yet... Waiting for the trend to show us the way. It always does!!!!




JerBer wrote: Playing the seasonality cardin 2005 didn't seem to work, seemed like I was always a day or two off! It would be nice if 2006 wouldcooperate! Just give me a few solid days of gains and I'll retreat.....hey wait a minute! This sounds a lot like last year!


Check out the current sentiment at link below: UMMMMMMMMMM, so is tomorrow up or down?


http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm

 

[Birchtree]

JerBer,

Everywhere I look there is bearishness - bears here and bears there. And as I acquaint myself with the dark side I realize there are some valid criteria; although a number of averages (including the S&P 500 Index) recently reached new bull-market highs, the NYSE cumulative advance-decline, or breath, index and the 52 wk new highs list contiunued to stall below their previous peaks. That is usually the sign of a tiring or faltering advance, not one that is gaining upside momentum.

Any optimisim regarding the further upside potential of a bull market that is already mature and showing narrowing strength should be food for contrary thought. A potential January market top could be followed by weakness in the first quarter of 2006. That in turn, may prove to be just the first downleg of a cyclical market decline next year with the 4 year cycle low. A peak on the averages in early 2006 could be followed by declines of about 20-25% on the DJIA and the S&P 500. If you give this malarkey any credence at all then may I suggest you run through the Jungle and not look back. I believe you are about to witness a bullish head fake. If we do head straight down instead of straight up, just remember that rallies out of 4-year cycle lows can be relentless affsairs.

Dennis - perma bull #2

 

[bkrownd]

I taught weather101 at Lakewood in 1984. Lived in St Paul South (not South St Paul) -- Cherokee Hts. Worked at the Ag Dept on Plato Blvd next to Group Health right next to the bluff. I liked St Paul.

These days I daydream about returning to St. Paul. I'd love to live around the colleges on the West side of town.

 

[Mike]

Back on topic (I never imagined a lesser burb like WBL would become a topic around here ) - I'm modestly bullish for the early portion of January, and then very bearish for the latter half of the month.

Overall for 2006, I'm not nearly as optimistic as Tom is - I see the market as flat to down overall, with the I fund possibly eking out gains due to the dollar's potential tumble as the Fed ends its hikes and starts looking to cut late in the year as the economy slows.

 

[The_Technician]

You guys should know that I'm bearish to the max at this moment....look for the F fund to pop up soon.....

 

[Show-me]

Tech,

I'm there with ya but can't quit looking at the I fund. Do you think that the fact that the FED is looking to slow or stop raising rates and the fact the other countries will start raising their rates will push the F Fund up?

And, will this also help or hinder the I Fund?

Short term I think it will help the I fund with the USD decline as long as it doesn't happen to fast and for to long a period.

 

[The_Technician]

Showme.....I believe the F fund is gonna jump....I fund could be helped by Foreign countries raising their rates....it kinda puts it back in the same boat as the US....but , manufacturing is pickin up in US.....so US should dominate....dollar will get stronger....

 

[Cortez]

I am bearish shorter term and bullish longer term based on the S&P trading channel for past 2 years. We are currently at the upper end of the channel and I would expect a push down to the 1200 area before the market finds strength and another rally ensues.