Bquat's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Missed this rally...wasn't procrastinating but didn't pull the trigger on Day 2 because of the weekend and concerns about a bear trap so well...here I am still sitting in G
I was going to go in today but missed the deadline. Hayed missing this action..Will be watching closely now for an opportunity somewhere....

FS

You needed to be in Fri & Monday(like I COULD have been).

Its just puttering along now probably about to shed all those gains and take another dive
into the deep end of the pool. I see the EU had nearly all their gains erased before closing.
These swings usually end up with a dip.

That's okay I got one IFT left so roll them bones!

 

[Mcqlives]

You needed to be in Fri & Monday(like I COULD have been).

Its just puttering along now probably about to shed all those gains and take another dive
into the deep end of the pool. I see the EU had nearly all their gains erased before closing.
These swings usually end up with a dip.

That's okay I got one IFT left so roll them bones!

I don't know what you guys have but my scratchings have 2004 (SnP) penciled in as the glass ceiling to break! Hope we do it tomorrow!

 

[Bquat]

You talking to me? Well right now your fund is on a breakout from the price range. Stopped at the 1% hesitation point then tested the 50 Day from below. Hasn't even reached the double top at the red line yet and testing the top of the price range for support. So with the big move we just had the 50 Day has a 60/40 chance of holding as resistance today. You have 1 hour to watch and decide.

Ditto,but now it 40/60 on the 50 day holding as resistance:

 

[Mcqlives]

Ditto,but now it 40/60 on the 50 day holding as resistance:

Agreed with your 40/60 on the 50. But I don't like the 50 for confirmation anymore. I am looking at your longterm bottom line as the "must cross" line for a bull to resume with any strength. But then again, they are so close going into tomorrow there really isn't much difference at all.

 

[Mcqlives]

I don't know what you guys have but my scratchings have 2004 (SnP) penciled in as the glass ceiling to break! Hope we do it tomorrow!

I love it when a "hope" becomes reality! Now I have to either re-draw everything or wait till you post tonight, Bquat! I'm lazy on charting lately so I'll wait for your most excellent posts! In case I don't get on here tomorrow, HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

 

[Bquat]

I love it when a "hope" becomes reality! Now I have to either re-draw everything or wait till you post tonight, Bquat! I'm lazy on charting lately so I'll wait for your most excellent posts! In case I don't get on here tomorrow, HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

So End of Day movement must be a real pleasure to those that are in. What caused the pop? ​Here's the funds:

 

[Bquat]

So End of Day movement must be a real pleasure to those that are in. What caused the pop? ​Here's the funds:

Fed minutes came out and mentioned negative interest rates. Now tomorrow we this good news become bad?

 

[GUCHI]

Hey all..... Do all those open gaps on I fund mean anything as far as being filled eventually?

 

[FogSailing]

They will be filled eventually...but the timing can be days, weeks, or months down the road. Investopedia has a good discussion on gaps. There are four main types of gaps: common, breakaway, runaway (measuring), and exhaustion. Each are the same in structure, differing only in their location in the trend and subsequent meaning for chartists. From looking at the chart, my guess is that these are common and breakaway gaps...but just a guess.


Read more: Analyzing Chart Patterns: Gaps | Investopedia Analyzing Chart Patterns: Gaps | Investopedia


FS

 

[userque]

Hey all..... Do all those open gaps on I fund mean anything as far as being filled eventually?

Two things:

1) I fund gaps are different from stocks in that the underlying trades longer per day than the I fund. IOW, the stuff that the I fund is based on still trades even when the I fund is not, so, the next day, the I fund jumps to where it should be based upon trading that occurred in the world while the I fund was "closed."

EDIT: This is why the I fund is so "gappy."

2) And regarding gaps in general:

A filled gap merely states that the price has repeated the prices of a certain range, the gap. Has anyone considered that the price would have done the same thing even if there hadn't been a gap. Absent study, a gap is just a gap.

Very rarely are prices hit only once during a stocks lifetime.

Etc. etc.

 

[nnuut]

What does negative interest rates mean, will we have to pay the bank for using our money that we have in our savings? Great Holy Cyprus what is this crap?

 

[Mcqlives]

What does negative interest rates mean, will we have to pay the bank for using our money that we have in our savings? Great Holy Cyprus what is this crap?

I agree it is crap, and I don't get a very good feeling about the longer term effects of it, but what it does short term do is weaken the dollar.My American Funds Emerging fund is looking very nice today...but China markets have been mostly closed this week so Monday could easily be the give back day.

 

[Bquat]

What does negative interest rates mean, will we have to pay the bank for using our money that we have in our savings? Great Holy Cyprus what is this crap?

QE 4 printing money again.

 

[FAB1]

QE 4 printing money again.

Get the H E dlb hockey sticks OUT of the G fund!

 

[FogSailing]

I believe you're RIGHT ON Bquat....and frankly, it really ticks me off. This is not intended as political...just my observation based on reading the news.

We have a government that doesn't deal with budget reality and continually pushes things off to another day, a stock market that has sucked up every penny made available through QE as profits without providing the structural foundation needed for the country, and a FED who kept on their QE baby formula far too long....and has now taken their mandate beyond what's good for "Merica" to making policy based on global economics....So, it sounds like QE4 is very real...even though I'm hard pressed to see what true benefit it has provided the country.

So, we are now in a position where our debts are large, and if interest rates are raised in any meaningful way, there is a high risk that bond issuers won't be able to make their payments on those instruments. The simple answer at one time was raise taxes...but in today's world that means people and businesses will leave those locations eroding the existing tax base. So, if they are unable to effectively raise interest rates, the other obvious answer is we'll just print more money and sell more bonds. That's simplistic but I think there is more than a kernel of truth there.

This has been coming at us for a long time and we are still here and the world is still functioning. But I worry because we always seem to take the easy road.

Last thought: I think the situation would be quite different if the respective retirements of each of the above parties were based solely on the amount of interest they received from bonds. I don't think they'd like getting 2% or less per year because of their policies and actions/inactions. I bet things would change quickly.

Anyways, just a few thoughts..

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Still wonder what "negative interest rates " actually means. Surely they cannot take our money from our bank deposits. People would just pull the money out of the bank.

I should think negative interest rates means recession... money devaluation..... Right?????? I think I need to read up on this a lot tonight!!!

I am also going to read those Fed minutes. Maybe they are fearing recession/deflation. That would mean more QE to pump up the market again... I think.

As for what it would do to the G or F fund... that is the question. Supposedly G fund cannot go negative. However, I always hear stuff about bond bubble. If interest rates go up (yields), the value of bonds go down (index bonds) because why would anyone want to buy an existing bond at the current price (with the lower interest rate already valued in) when they can buy a new bond with a higher yield. So the existing bonds go down in value. So if anything ... the F fund is something to be careful/weary of just in case an unexpected "bubble" bursts.... right??? Gosh hope someone can enlighten me on this.

 

[Tsunami]

Great post DBA. I think this morning's -0.5% PPI reading, and tomorrow's official announcement of a negative CPI for this fiscal year (which will carry over into negative news stories tomorrow about unhappy social security and disability recipients) is more evidence that deflation is setting in, and that will be one of the main reasons for the approaching stock market nose-dive once it's recognized a (hopefully mild) recession can't be avoided. Walmart's news today was more evidence.

I plan to listen to this interview tonight since I have a subscription that hasn't quite run out yet...
Michael Lewitt Sees a

I think bonds will finally peak (and rates hit bottom) next year, and that will coincide with the stock market bottom...but like you I'm concerned about the Fed's recent trial balloon they let go to see how the public would react to the idea of negative rates...and there seemed to be no concern...great idea!...let's have banks start charging us interest "fees" just to hold our money! That's probably a main reason gold is breaking out to the upside now as well.

 

[Fran1775]

Where do we go then?
2040?

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

 

[gegor1957]

Still wonder what "negative interest rates " actually means. Surely they cannot take our money from our bank deposits. People would just pull the money out of the bank.

I should think negative interest rates means recession... money devaluation..... Right?????? I think I need to read up on this a lot tonight!!!

I am also going to read those Fed minutes. Maybe they are fearing recession/deflation. That would mean more QE to pump up the market again... I think.

As for what it would do to the G or F fund... that is the question. Supposedly G fund cannot go negative. However, I always hear stuff about bond bubble. If interest rates go up (yields), the value of bonds go down (index bonds) because why would anyone want to buy an existing bond at the current price (with the lower interest rate already valued in) when they can buy a new bond with a higher yield. So the existing bonds go down in value. So if anything ... the F fund is something to be careful/weary of just in case an unexpected "bubble" bursts.... right??? Gosh hope someone can enlighten me on this.

Interesting article on the Swedish move to negative interest rates and a move towards a cashless society;
How Sweden's negative interest rates experiment has turned economics on its head - Telegraph

 

[FogSailing]

Hmmmmmm....a cashless society where every transaction is controlled by the banks......anyone see anything in that picture to give you pause...

FS