Bquat's Account Talk

[RealMoneyIssues]

The 50 day MA, if we get to it over the next couple days is going to be some serious resistance...

 

[burrocrat]

Look at this post deadline move. I want 2PM Eastern.:suspicious:

careful what you ask for, as soon as it's 2pm ET the move will happen at 2:05. rules are made to be manipulated. at some time, any time, every time, in the moment a person has to make the call.

you might have better luck wishing for bigger nuts.

 

[Bquat]

Soon as we moved to the right of the channel we broke down.:worried: Do we test prior resistance as support? More than likely. 50/50 risk to reward tomorrow. Here's the scenario. We pop or test resistance or drop. I think this move will be determined in the futures market. We need the pop to mirror the left side of the V formation.:notrust: The risk is any sizable drop will pull the 20 through the 50 day and the white channel will be a large bear flag which can break the 38.2 fib. ret. and worse.:worried: Other than that everything is fine.

POP IT IS. I and many others are going to miss this. Maybe I should be so afraid or risk.:embarrest: But you know me.

 

[Bquat]

The 50 day MA, if we get to it over the next couple days is going to be some serious resistance...

You mean today right? It could happen. For you I hope touch and go. For me I hope touch and drop. You know what? Since bonds are following stocks by 50% lately, maybe a pop will be good for the F fund too. Reverse QE is something, isn't it?

 

[Birchtree]

The end of outperformance in bonds likely means a move higher in equities. Everyone was waiting for the massive climactic sell off and we had it in one day - very typical of bull market action. We are seeing the turning point right now.

 

[Bquat]

With the bottom of the old channel (purple), the 50, declining 20 and 13 DMA above us' I think there's too muck resistance and we should fail soon and make this bear flag happen. 70/30 risk reward.:worried::worried: Exhaustion top.

 

[Bquat]

The end of outperformance in bonds likely means a move higher in equities. Everyone was waiting for the massive climactic sell off and we had it in one day - very typical of bull market action. We are seeing the turning point right now.

Turning point to what?

 

[Bquat]

I will go from F to G today if we don't break the 50 day. I don't want to test Friday. Now that I said it, we'll see.

 

[Birchtree]

The turning point of the big valley - watch it build.

 

[Bquat]

At the 1% decision point early. This is good because waiting for user input right at a critical point should show the bulls intensions. They're still trying to prove me wrong but going into a F flag is good for my side. I'm just glad the 50 day test will be before the deadline. Yeah right.

 

[Mapper]

Conditions seem ripe to be building an appropriately weak foundation for the proverbial "wall of worry". I'm participating for now and if I didn't need liquid assets in the coming weeks I'd have more on the table but I'm young so gambling a bit still seems reasonable.

 

[Bquat]

I will go from F to G today if we don't break the 50 day. I don't want to test Friday. Now that I said it, we'll see.

100 G with double top.:worried:

 

[Bquat]

Conditions seem ripe to be building an appropriately weak foundation for the proverbial "wall of worry". I'm participating for now and if I didn't need liquid assets in the coming weeks I'd have more on the table but I'm young so gambling a bit still seems reasonable.

Thanks for your visits. I'm surprised you look at my charts comparing how you're doing to how I'm doing. You're not using me as a contrary indicator are you? TA has sucked this year because market is QE or reverse news based. I keep trying though.

 

[Danny]

Im 50% S, 50% F with 1 IFT left...What would you do?

Thx, Danny

 

[Bquat]

Im 50% S, 50% F with 1 IFT left...What would you do?

Thx, Danny

I went 100 G. Bonds have been following stocks at about a 40% rate. I personally am bearish and really don't think the 50 day will be broken. But at only 1% for the year my opinion is a grain of salt. We are still in a high base but I don't trust it. 55/45 we don't break it.

 

[Bquat]

If we don't break the 50 day this is a possibility.:worried: So hope I'm wrong for those that are in.

 

[Bquat]

At the 1% decision point early. This is good because waiting for user input right at a critical point should show the bulls intensions. They're still trying to prove me wrong but going into a F flag is good for my side. I'm just glad the 50 day test will be before the deadline. Yeah right.

Yeah right.

 

[Mapper]

Thanks for your visits. I'm surprised you look at my charts comparing how you're doing to how I'm doing. You're not using me as a contrary indicator are you? TA has sucked this year because market is QE or reverse news based. I keep trying though.

:laugh: No way! Your charts and comments are great.
I use your charts and analysis a lot. Doesn't necessarily mean I always come to the same conclusions. Honestly all I can say is I've been pretty lucky. But truth is I think it comes down to a much different risk tolerance. I recognize that many on the board are playing more conservative, which can be a VERY good thing. I just don't need to do that yet. How I wish I had less than 20 years to retirement but for better or worse, time is still on my side. The last year has been great for anyone comfortable with skin in the game. If the markets had tanked I'd be sitting with negative numbers. If I'm good, then my tune will change when the character changes...or I'll lose.

For what its worth. I do keep track of the sentiment survey and try to consider that as a barometer for underlying conditions and "tie breaker" of sorts...Sentiment survey has been very good this year.

I'm keeping TSP in S a bit longer but I wont be surprised if we do drop in the coming days....seems people are getting "worried" about not being in, hence my last comment. But, I'm willing to take the gamble.

 

[Bquat]

:laugh: No way! Your charts and comments are great.
I use your charts and analysis a lot. Doesn't necessarily mean I always come to the same conclusions. Honestly all I can say is I've been pretty lucky. But truth is I think it comes down to a much different risk tolerance. I recognize that many on the board are playing more conservative, which can be a VERY good thing. I just don't need to do that yet. How I wish I had less than 20 years to retirement but for better or worse, time is still on my side. The last year has been great for anyone comfortable with skin in the game. If the markets had tanked I'd be sitting with negative numbers. If I'm good, then my tune will change when the character changes...or I'll lose.

For what its worth. I do keep track of the sentiment survey and try to consider that as a barometer for underlying conditions and "tie breaker" of sorts...Sentiment survey has been very good this year.

I'm keeping TSP in S a bit longer but I wont be surprised if we do drop in the coming days....seems people are getting "worried" about not being in, hence my last comment. But, I'm willing to take the gamble.

Yes time is on your side and you have a day left to set up for next month. I'm already retarded (retired).

 

[Danny]

Thanks, I feel your pain! I sure am not doing well with my timing either. It is almost comical if it wasn't so fustrating!!! I was 25% C, 50% S, 25% I, as of yesterday and bought in at the second dip from the top in May...of course it went down from there then went 50% F, and kept 50% S yesterday...and now bailing out to 50% G and keeping 50% F. So you can proabably bet we will go up from here

Anyway, thanks for you daily TA! I look at your charts everyday...

Danny