Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

This thing is running neck to neck at the bottom of the channel. You might want to run two windows so you can watch the break and be logged onto TSP.gov getting ready to submit an IFT. If I had to call it right now I think the bottom will break and we continue down. Lucky I'm have no choice to make.

 

[Bquat]

This is what I see.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

It almost looks like the S fund is going to carry the C & I funds back into positive territory. The VIX has been bouncing between 18.5 and 19. I think the VIX may be the lynch pin today. If it breaks above 19 CSI will go negative. If it holds between 18 and 18.5 we will see green today.

Big divergence between large caps (C) and small caps (S) today. One is trending down and saying sell, the other is trending up and saying buy. Makes for some interesting intra-day analysis...............:blink: But I think you may be right. We also need to remember that the VIX tracks the S&P 500.

 

[Bquat]

Big divergence between large caps (C) and small caps (S) today. One is trending down and saying sell, the other is trending up and saying buy. Makes for some interesting intra-day analysis...............:blink: But I think you may be right. We also need to remember that the VIX tracks the S&P 500.

Hey thanks for visiting.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Hey thanks for visiting.

I visit more than you think and your mom-in-law has been in my thoughts and prayers. I like to do things behind the scenes out of the limelight, in case my tactlessness rears its ugly head again.

 

[WorkFE]

in case my tactlessness rears its ugly head again.

Yeah, that don't happen to anyone else

 

[MaStA]

Well I'm hanging out with Birch and riding the roller coaster through the weekend and hopefully Monday proves a lot of people wrong and we have a strong rally. One can be hopeful right?

I really, really want to go into February invested and I may be taking some damage now, but hopefully having the opportunity to exit next month and reenter will help out. If I exit not I will only be able to move in and out once next month.

 

[Bquat]

I am glad to see that not too many on the tracker are buying this dip too early. Am I helping anybody? Am I too bearish?

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

You guys agree with my support lines on the chart? Do you think 1308 will hold?

 

[SPN46er]

This guy also seems to agree on the 1308 level as possible support

http://chart.ly/eiueoee

 

[crommie]

I am glad to see that not too many on the tracker are buying this dip too early. Am I helping anybody? Am I too bearish?

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

You guys agree with my support lines on the chart? Do you think 1308 will hold?

You're way to modest Bquat...YES, you are helping me and untold hundreds of others! Your charts, timely analysis, openess about your moves, and humor make your posts a MUST read for me. I also really like the Little Bull / Little Bear conversations! :toung:

I just went from 50/50 S/I to 100% I. I am hoping that the Greek Deal gets done over the weekend resulting in a pop across the pond on Monday. Also hoping that this will strenghen the Euro against the dollar for that extra I Fund kick!

 

[Bquat]

You're way to modest Bquat...YES, you are helping me and untold hundreds of others! Your charts, timely analysis, openess about your moves, and humor make your posts a MUST read for me. I also really like the Little Bull / Little Bear conversations! :toung:

I just went from 50/50 S/I to 100% I. I am hoping that the Greek Deal gets done over the weekend resulting in a pop across the pond on Monday. Also hoping that this will strenghen the Euro against the dollar for that extra I Fund kick!

Kind of got that little bull from agreeing with Birch sometimes. T he Little Bull and Little Bear convercing is barrowed somewhat from Sugar and Spice. I really enjoyed her posts. Sorry, I mean they're posts. Sorry Spice.

 

[SkyPilot]

Well I'm hanging out with Birch and riding the roller coaster through the weekend and hopefully Monday proves a lot of people wrong and we have a strong rally. One can be hopeful right?

I really, really want to go into February invested and I may be taking some damage now, but hopefully having the opportunity to exit next month and reenter will help out. If I exit not I will only be able to move in and out once next month.

That is my thinking... was hoping that today would bottom and be able to buy into a lower position. However, it is tough having to also manage a limited # of trades, and I think it will be more adventageous to move into next month invested as well.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I just went from 50/50 S/I to 100% I. I am hoping that the Greek Deal gets done over the weekend resulting in a pop across the pond on Monday. Also hoping that this will strenghen the Euro against the dollar for that extra I Fund kick!

Sometimes I wonder if the deal I hear is in the works will really give us a pop? Private investors/banks losing 60-70% of their investment and a major interest rate reduction over 30 years, just so Greece can get more bailout money from the EU???

 

[WorkFE]

We shall see but IMHO greece is done.

http://www.active-investor.com/greece-and-private-creditors-close-to-deal-according-to-eu-official-3800

 

[Mcqlives]

I am glad to see that not too many on the tracker are buying this dip too early. Am I helping anybody? Am I too bearish?

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

You guys agree with my support lines on the chart? Do you think 1308 will hold?

I am right there with you...my number to watch is 1306 with a topper of 1322ish. I think we may flounder around some more before we get our channel direction but my bet is still on the down side. Just when and how much? Will 1266ish hold if we fall fast or will we find support somewhere else? Or will we break 1332 and rocket to 1365ish? This and many more questions will be thought of over a beer in about 20 minutes!

Have a great weekend all(especially your mom, B-Quat!)

 

[crommie]

Sometimes I wonder if the deal I hear is in the works will really give us a pop? Private investors/banks losing 60-70% of their investment and a major interest rate reduction over 30 years, just so Greece can get more bailout money from the EU???

I hear what your saying Kaufmanrider, but IMO most if not all of these "losses" have been insured against or at least already priced into the market. My only concern is if the deal getting done has already been priced in. :suspicious: The markets do not like uncertainity and do not like surprises. This deal, although not a real solution to the root cause of the problem, will at least solidify the crisis for the time being. This should give investors some confidence in the market for at least the short term. Long term still depends on the whole world's (including our) soverient debt situation. :worried:

 

[Mapper]

Whew! busy day in here. Glad I made my move yesterday and took a break today...I have to add that I think everything regarding Greece is baked in, EXCEPT, if Greece ultimately leaves the Euro. IF that happens I actually think the market will lift because, in reality, Greece is a tiny meaningless nation on the macro scale. All this fretting over Greece is largely unjustified, except as an indicator of what else might happen with the bigger Eurozone nations. Getting Greece off the Euro will be terrible for the Greek citizens but I think it would cause the larger markets to breath a big sigh of relief.

UNTIL the focus shifts back to Spain, because Spain is not so meaningless. Spain could cause things to get ugly. Additionally, I worry what all these austerity measures will ultimately do to the German economy. The German's have weathered the storm well because they sell a lot to the other debtor(periphery) nations. Austerity will have it's impact on German exports...and that's the other fly in the ointment I'm worried about.

 

[Sensei]

Whew! busy day in here. Glad I made my move yesterday and took a break today...I have to add that I think everything regarding Greece is baked in, EXCEPT, if Greece ultimately leaves the Euro. IF that happens I actually think the market will lift because, in reality, Greece is a tiny meaningless nation on the macro scale. All this fretting over Greece is largely unjustified, except as an indicator of what else might happen with the bigger Eurozone nations. Getting Greece off the Euro will be terrible for the Greek citizens but I think it would cause the larger markets to breath a big sigh of relief.

UNTIL the focus shifts back to Spain, because Spain is not so meaningless. Spain could cause things to get ugly. Additionally, I worry what all these austerity measures will ultimately do to the German economy. The German's have weathered the storm well because they sell a lot to the other debtor(periphery) nations. Austerity will have it's impact on German exports...and that's the other fly in the ointment I'm worried about.

I keep waiting for the world to start worrying about Japan, the silent "J" in PIGGS. World's 3rd (formerly 2nd) largest economy with a national debt twice as large as the GDP. When's that train going to derail?

 

[Bquat]

Morning guys, good evening Sensi,
Well bad night with me mom inlaw and a double cleanup this morning. She was quite out of it yesterday. Today started at 0230 (ol dark thirty) with the second cleanup. 0500 and she's up and happy. Looks like and good day for today. Early morning I Love Lucy is on and all is good in her world.

Ok, as to the market I see a posible head and shoulder comming up and correction to 1292.JMHO. I was very suprized the market recovered yesterday. I still think 1290ish correction even if we turn down monday. This TA is brought to you from one that is in the lower half of the tracker, so taking it with a grain of salt is ok. Both Litle Bear and Little Bull are asleep because it's too dam early.

Did do chart. Feel free to super analize it because the Wall of Worry can continue and continue. Somebody bought to get us back in the channel. What you think?

 

[Bquat]

Well, Little bear is happy. Little Bear " the market didn't like the setting of the lower low. So look out."

Little Bull " Well were at the 13 day and the first fib. retracement line. We should bounce here. "

Me I think the market would like a retracement to 1292. If we break the 13 day we can go bearish for a while also. I'll see if I can find this in a longer time frame. I fear the cascading effect of setting a lower low after the lower high.