Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

I suspect the SPX may bounce like it's on a trampoline once 1300 hours rolls around - the VIX will probably break to the downside initially and then woosh.

Yea it won't show its face before IFT time.

 

[Cactus]

I think we will still be trending down from here coming off of the positive seasonality. I'm waiting for a lower entry point later in Jan.

 

[Bquat]

I think we will still be trending down from here coming off of the positive seasonality. I'm waiting for a lower entry point later in Jan.

I think one more test of the up side as I see a pattern repeat happening and Birch may be right. The market generally rises after he visits me.
But I not entering today.

 

[Bquat]

I think one more test of the up side as I see a pattern repeat happening and Birch may be right. The market generally rises after he visits me.
But I not entering today.

You can see it better this way and I don't think we'll break the channel. If it does this the move will be done before we enter anyway.

 

[Bquat]

Well Little Bull and Little Bear are standing around looking at the floor. They tossed a coin to see which way the market will go tomorrow. Too bad they did it in the sand box. It landed on it's side and stuck standing.Little Bull thinks he has an advantage because he recovered from Little Bear's work.I think if we had strength we would have consolidated at the top but then again there was a bottom tail and we didn't retouch the bottom of the channel. Was this a bear trap?Oh well will just wait for a new coin toss and I'll catch it in the air. In the middle of the channel looking both ways.:notrust:

 

[Bquat]

Good morning. Just woke up. Ok, on the quick look we came up tails and Little Bear won the toss. We even went into a low base consolidation or a bear pennant.
I'm staying in the pond. I'm bearish 70/30. Now time to read posts and make coffee, yes?

 

[Bquat]

I guess I need to wake up earlier. I am so glad to see more people are posting there charts and IFT's earlier. So to be fair I will post the other side. By the movement on the tracker people are buying this dip and are expecting a good jobs report. I'm wandering if it isn't already priced in? Well good luck to them.

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

 

[Bquat]

Well the jobs report negated my bear pennant but we still need to break resistance.

 

[Cactus]

I'm staying in the pond.

You're in the mrkt??? :blink: I thought you were on the lillypad (G Fund). I'm sorry if this is obvious. I really am the 'dumb' of the "dumb money" around here.

 

[Bquat]

You're in the mrkt??? :blink: I thought you were on the lillypad (G Fund). I'm sorry if this is obvious. I really am the 'dumb' of the "dumb money" around here.

The lilly pad is in the pond. People may be buying the dip because we're over the 200 but I think we're just barely over it and can drop through. Anyway if they were jumping ahead of the jobs report they should have got it yesterday. We'll everybody has different styles.

 

[Bquat]

Well, everybody has just about got Little Bull tapping his foot ready to jump with all this talk of high base continuing and ready to jump up.

Little Bear says if this were the case we would of gapped up and away. Though we are showing strenght and slowly continue to grind back up to 1284, couldent this just be people wanting to continue the Santa rally and the programmers haven't made a move yet.

I have to remind myself that Capital Preservation says watch (why am I up so early? Hi Sensi) for a confirmation of the move up. I am aware that all the little folks are back in school and mom and dad are returning their attention back to stocks and a move is comming. There is so muck riding on this jobs report (some are in already and it may already be 50% already considered in the market) and can cause a jump either way. Some are not considering that a lot of these jobs are paying less than the norm and are just highering desperate low income workers and may be doing it just to help them out. The job numbers are going up but I myself think it's companies just filling make work positions to help local people out. I don't think it's a moving ecconomy yet. Just my openion. Higher earners are still unemployed and companies are trying to handle the job with less high skilled people using the lower skilled part time employees to cover short term shortages in production. JMHO

Ok, let's see the move today. We're comming up to two resistance points and let's see the job report make us gap them. So far I'm not thinking of entering this wall of worry but I can be influenced with strong bullish action, if it happens, yes?:notrust:

Ok, expert commentary is welcomed here. Or some educated guess?

 

[Bquat]

I have to remind myself that Capital Preservation says watch (why am I up so early? Hi Sensi) for a confirmation of the move up. I am aware that all the little folks are back in school and mom and dad are returning their attention back to stocks and a move is comming. There is so muck riding on this jobs report (some are in already and it may already be 50% already considered in the market) and can cause a jump either way. Some are not considering that a lot of these jobs are paying less than the norm and are just highering desperate low income workers and may be doing it just to help them out. The job numbers are going up but I myself think it's companies just filling make work positions to help local people out. I don't think it's a moving ecconomy yet. Just my openion. Higher earners are still unemployed and companies are trying to handle the job with less high skilled people using the lower skilled part time employees to cover short term shortages in production. JMHO
QUOTE]

Well sinse I can't go back to sleep. This remindes me of when I worked at GTE Lenkurt in the 80's. They did the oppisite. They would lay off (fire?) all the assembly line workers for two to four weeks (unpaid vacation) and let the unemploymeht commision pay them. Then they would keep the tech's and repair opperators to work on all the backed up bad circuit cards off the assembly lines until 90% were repaired and bring the assembly lines back. They didn't let the tech's go because they would find new jobs and not come back. That's the short version of the story. I go get coffee and then look at futures, yes? You read and enjoy.

 

[Sensei]

(why am I up so early? Hi Sensi)
QUOTE]
Ha! Thanks for the shout out. Because I'm on the other side of the world, I get to associate with folks at interesting hours.

I hope the coffee was good. I never drank coffee until I turned 30, then I got hooked real fast. Lately, when I don't have my morning cup, I get a headache. But then if I drink too much caffeine, I get muscle twitches. I tried quitting at the beginning of the school year, but I thought I was going to die or fall asleep in class. I guess I'll have to wait for summer vacation and go through some serious Trainspotting-type detox. :nuts:

 

[Bquat]

(why am I up so early? Hi Sensi)
QUOTE]
Ha! Thanks for the shout out. Because I'm on the other side of the world, I get to associate with folks at interesting hours.

I hope the coffee was good. I never drank coffee until I turned 30, then I got hooked real fast. Lately, when I don't have my morning cup, I get a headache. But then if I drink too much caffeine, I get muscle twitches. I tried quitting at the beginning of the school year, but I thought I was going to die or fall asleep in class. I guess I'll have to wait for summer vacation and go through some serious Trainspotting-type detox. :nuts:

They have a nice 50% decaf. You can drink the same amount and get less twitch. At night coffee will help me sleep but it would keep my sister up all night. When she was young I almost had her convinced that she was adopted, maybe she was?

 

[Bquat]

Went back and got a older resistance line. 1302 remembet it? It and 1320 are really tought. Maybe they read my little spill on jobs being lower paying. Don't see much of a move here. Jobs report is out isn't it? With the resistance above and this being so weak of a move. I still can't see getting in and if the market doesn't react soon to a good jobs report I think profit taking will happen and shorts will be getting in. Good news not causing a positive move is taken as market weakness. In the pond pondering.:worried:

 

[Birchtree]

The stock market is an omnipotent discounting mechanism - certainly the market will recognize that a boom is on the way. So the bulls can kick into full ahead gear at anytime. The R2K is getting ready to go positive.

 

[Bquat]

The stock market is an omnipotent discounting mechanism - certainly the market will recognize that a boom is on the way. So the bulls can kick into full ahead gear at anytime. The R2K is getting ready to go positive.

Well start buying buddy because I see this and I would like to be talked out of it. Your the bull and I'm the bear and they need both sides to help decide. I like my lilly pad and I hope not too much.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is getting ready to drop into the 20 level heading for 20.34 - the stampede is building while Ferdinand plays on the rails. He likes running in front of the train. I'm always refreshed when the train rolls over me. Put your ear to the rails and you can hear the hooves making their move.

 

[Bquat]

Ok, you guys might want to right click on these charts to streach them out. This is long term for 2012.

With this chart you can see the market has been moving in a bullish direction since first part of 2009.
Our major trend is still down from 2008 highs. The top purple line is the top of my trading channel and if we break it, I'll be extremly bullish.
The bottom purple line is the bounce line where we hopfully bounce in a major market down turn. Extremly bearish if this breaks.
The middle purple line is the bottom of my trading channel and bearish if it breaks and bullish if it holds.

 

[Bquat]

This is my trading channel. This is the mid to long term and the top two purple lines.
Above the top line I go very bullish and below the bottom line I go very bearish.
If we bounce down from the top line i have a more than normal bearish outlook and if we bounce off the bottom purple line I have a slightly bullish outlook.

I think in 2012 we may be doing our guesses between these lines with Europe holding us back. I think we and Europe have to be both improving to break the top of this range.