Bquat's Account Talk

[JamesE]

I am just glad to be positive after my boondoggle in early August...

We got matching t-shirts then. I side stepped that mess, got greedy by waiting too long to get back in and wound up giving back a 7.5% profit.

That will not happen this year, when I see moves over 5% (up or down) I'm getting out (or back in). At least that's the plan.

 

[FAB1]

I'm at 10% for the year and very happy. Aren't ypu?

1 Jan I begin again.

Um...I really dont know my % in the tracker b/c I goofed it up twice.

As for my "real" TSP I have just about gotten back the gains lost from the endless Summer.

I guess that is GOOD but I would have liked something BETTER.

I think resistance is still overhead around 1300 - the rest of the world was on holiday today
and maybe seasonality will push this thing a little higher?

 

[Mcqlives]

If there is a little more upside I think it will be short lived.

 

[Mcqlives]

If there is a little more upside I think it will be short lived.

Sorry, the chart did not make it through a while ago when I tried attaching it. Let me try one more time, but if there is not a chart attached below check out "danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/". Actually, check it out anyway...he has some nice updates today!

 

[Bquat]

Ok I cleaned up the chart except the top and bottom with the 30 min. zoomed. I'm in the watch phase and checking for a Jan reentry. Doing a neutral look at this time frame and letting the market decide for three days if I draw bullish or bearish. Come the first my 10.17 is locked and off we go on the 2012 adventure. As a reminder, I'll will tell you I'm not a big gain type but have been lucky to miss the big losses. Why I say lucky is because I've either been out and out of IFT's or spidey sometimes just hints to me to exit, just before some of the bigger losses. I did try once riding it down at 50% in and only got my gains back because I rode it back up at 100% but it didn't get completely back, just back enought for me because I didn't ride it down at 100%. I'm not buy and hold and concider myself as a midterm swing trader. I miss the start of rallies and look at the market with a slightly bearish outlook that helps me miss the dips hopefully. I sometimes need a little push to get in. I am still trying for the better gain side but Capital Preservation is the key. I am retired and trying to make more than I withdraw. I did better than I expected this year and did make my 2012 goal and will regoal it. I think I will goal at 8% for right now. Thats 3% over my withdrawl.

Here's the clean chart. Did you guys like deciding over the 30 min. Time frame. It did seam better that the hour when watching the 20, 50, and 200 period. Do you think adding the 100 period would help? Any suggestions. Ok this is just a 30 min. high low chart for right now. Worry about the long term ( LT ) and short term ( 15 min. ) later.

 

[Sensei]

Bquat,
I'm one of your many frequent readers, and certainly appreciate both your conservative success and helpful charts.

If you're looking for feedback - as a novice to all this, I find your many lines busy, but I'm sure they're significant to people who understand. Please don't take that as criticism. Hopefully as I learn technical analysis better, I'll have a better understanding of the various support and resistance lines. Also, thinking strictly along TSP terms, I don't know if the intraday timeframes (hourly, 30 min., 15 min, etc) are significant. I just look at the daily candlestick charts. But again, I'm a mere simpleton. Don't change what you do on my account. I can always read Tom's blog and check my own charts for the simple daily stuff.

Congrats on beating the heck out of the market and most of us TSPers this year, and best of luck in 2012!

Sensei

Ok I cleaned up the chart except the top and bottom with the 30 min. zoomed. I'm in the watch phase and checking for a Jan reentry. Doing a neutral look at this time frame and letting the market decide for three days if I draw bullish or bearish. Come the first my 10.17 is locked and off we go on the 2012 adventure. As a reminder, I'll will tell you I'm not a big gain type but have been lucky to miss the big losses. Why I say lucky is because I've either been out and out of IFT's or spidey sometimes just hints to me to exit, just before some of the bigger losses. I did try once riding it down at 50% in and only got my gains back because I rode it back up at 100% but it didn't get completely back, just back enought for me because I didn't ride it down at 100%. I'm not buy and hold and concider myself as a midterm swing trader. I miss the start of rallies and look at the market with a slightly bearish outlook that helps me miss the dips hopefully. I sometimes need a little push to get in. I am still trying for the better gain side but Capital Preservation is the key. I am retired and trying to make more than I withdraw. I did better than I expected this year and did make my 2012 goal and will regoal it. I think I will goal at 8% for right now. Thats 3% over my withdrawl.

Here's the clean chart. Did you guys like deciding over the 30 min. Time frame. It did seam better that the hour when watching the 20, 50, and 200 period. Do you think adding the 100 period would help? Any suggestions. Ok this is just a 30 min. high low chart for right now. Worry about the long term ( LT ) and short term ( 15 min. ) later.

 

[Bquat]

Bquat,
I'm one of your many frequent readers, and certainly appreciate both your conservative success and helpful charts.

If you're looking for feedback - as a novice to all this, I find your many lines busy, but I'm sure they're significant to people who understand. Please don't take that as criticism. Hopefully as I learn technical analysis better, I'll have a better understanding of the various support and resistance lines. Also, thinking strictly along TSP terms, I don't know if the intraday timeframes (hourly, 30 min., 15 min, etc) are significant. I just look at the daily candlestick charts. But again, I'm a mere simpleton. Don't change what you do on my account. I can always read Tom's blog and check my own charts for the simple daily stuff.

Congrats on beating the heck out of the market and most of us TSPers this year, and best of luck in 2012!

Sensei

Thanks for your comment. The short time frame is that I kind of do it with a prospect of someone maybe trying to decide that day what to do. I don't think anyone should follow one persons trading style and I try to give both sides or have a contrarian come visit if they're willing. The bussiness of the lines are what I bring in from the longer time frame trying to show risks and where the market will pause or change direction. It used to be where you could enter a channel and follow it up , get out and reenter at the bottom. Lately you kind of have to watch because of the computer trading. The day traiders (the people that can trade each day or more) like to buy the open and sell after everyone follows their lead or sell the close and buy back at the last 1/2 hour or buy futures to cover their shorts.

So even if I'm already in or out, I try to help others with info for educated guesses as if they still have a chance to enter or exit.
Try to confirm the move up when getting in and try to get out before the move is confirmed to the downside. You know if anyone person could do this on a daily basis they wouldn't be here. To be right 60/40% of the time would even be great.
As always I like visits and thank you.

 

[Bquat]

Did we get lucky and pick the top and got out right at the right time? I don't know but here's your first short term support and a stronger longer term support (Dark blue). A retrace to 1242ish would be great.

 

[Bquat]

Well I had to add another support line already.

 

[Mcqlives]

Lately you kind of have to watch because of the computer trading. The day traiders (the people that can trade each day or more) like to buy the open and sell after everyone follows their lead or sell the close and buy back at the last 1/2 hour or buy futures to cover their shorts.

And don't forget that a lot of the margin day traders treat this as their upside down week and are selling shorts to cover their longs early in the day.

Well I had to add another support line already.

That 1266 was at the bottom of the numbers I thought we would see but the trading yesterday did not give us any upside prospects. You may be doing a few of these support line redo's if that 1242 breaks. And, for what it is worth, 1242 is my pick as well. At least for now. Have to see what January brings.

Oh, and reference your chart. I look at them for the short term action and match up your resistance lines to longer trading trends based on the days volume and vix. Usually on light days I go out a few months and up to a year on fairly heavy days. When we have had those 300-400 dow days I look back a long ways.

Did you get a chance to check out danerics blog?

 

[Bquat]

Did you get a chance to check out danerics blog?

Yes I did but the pastel colors are hard for me to disern between colors and the graphs blur when I enlarge them. So you can give us heads up?

 

[Bquat]

Well had to go to my Toe nail expert (wife's manacurist) and if you have a big toe that is subject to ingrowing you should too. See her every four weeks and she prevents it from breaking into the skin.
Well Little Bear sees a little bear flag here. So watch it.

 

[Bquat]

Bearish activity today and more comming. Had a bearish crossover of the 20 period over the 50 period. Lower low set and a lower high. We should get more confirmation of the down side tomorrow. The 200 period is around 1242ish and Little Bear thanks well touch it because of the low base formed.

 

[Mcqlives]

Not much to say that is different than your chart...maybe headed for the 1205 that has been bantered about?

 

[FAB1]

Hmm. I may have goofed again by not withdrawing yesterday. Sigh.

 

[nnuut]

I did today and unless we continue down it was the wrong decision. Wish I had Yesterday!

 

[Bquat]

Sorry guys I was in the hospital with Mom (in law silient) with pnumonia. She a little better. Got home 3 am and slept in.

Well I didn't see the light blue line as this much support but investers must have liked it or some enormous good news must have hit.

Well were bach above good support now and Little Bear is shocked. Didn't get contrary posts so maybe many didn't see this either.
:embarrest:
Now I'll read other posts and see what happened.

 

[Mcqlives]

Sorry guys I was in the hospital with Mom (in law silient) with pnumonia. She a little better. Got home 3 am and slept in.

Well I didn't see the light blue line as this much support but investers must have liked it or some enormous good news must have hit.

Well were bach above good support now and Little Bear is shocked. Didn't get contrary posts so maybe many didn't see this either.
:embarrest:
Now I'll read other posts and see what happened.

This morning I would have chalked it up to being oversold yesterday but now?!?!?! We are back in the channel where it could break either way...but I still am expecting a drop. Hope I am wrong for all those in the markets though!

 

[Bquat]

This morning I would have chalked it up to being oversold yesterday but now?!?!?! We are back in the channel where it could break either way...but I still am expecting a drop. Hope I am wrong for all those in the markets though!

Well hold on there scooter. I still a little bearish too.

This may just be a bull trap. We set the lower low and now the lower high. What you think? I didn't see follow through on this move.
Remember this? "Lately you kind of have to watch because of the computer trading. The day traiders (the people that can trade each day or more) like to buy the open and sell after everyone follows their lead or sell the close and buy back at the last 1/2 hour or buy futures to cover their shorts." from a past post.

 

[Mcqlives]

Agreed in theory...but this afternoon looks like a kind of consolidation. What kind is the question. This could be a consolidation forming a new base which would mean a greater potential for a bull run...or this could be a consolidation of the shorts vs longs. If it is the first we shouldn't see much much more action today. If it is the last then the last bit of trading volume will be significant (for today anyway).