Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Well a little sell off but I didn't like that we didn't drift back up a little at the end of the day. Looked like a lower base forming with a little bearish dip at the end. Not even a try for 1302 and then a drop back down.

Slight bearish until the 1282 test of resistance.

Bearish 55/45 and let's watch for FAB's falling down stairs call.

If we don't bounce off 1282, we drop back into the current bearish channel and be on the top stair going down.

 

[JTH]

Well a little sell off but I didn't like that we didn't drift back up a little at the end of the day.

I'd like to thing we threw out a 1-day-tight bull flag with the drift-down in prices, any thoughts?

 

[jpcavin]

Ah just last year 400 was in the deep end. I think we might start calling it The 700 Club. Apologies to Pat Robinson!

Damn, when I saw a particular person (no names) labeled as being in The 700 Club, I thought it was in reference to their holier-than-thou attitude. :laugh::laugh:

 

[Mcqlives]

Slight bearish until the 1282 test of resistance.

Bearish 55/45 and let's watch for FAB's falling down stairs call.

If we don't bounce off 1282, we drop back into the current bearish channel and be on the top stair going down.

The way things are shaping up this morning we could see the bounce begin at 1284 (hit twice so far) or... this morning is a double fake with a short drift back up to the 1290ish area before a fall down under the 1282 mark. If the later we will probably see a fall this afternoon. Along with claims tomorrow and durable goods on Friday could set up for bad fall down the steps or a nice climb for the end of the week. I hate to do it with my 2 moves but...I'll wait and see what tomorrow brings!

 

[FAB1]

Damn, when I saw a particular person (no names) labeled as being in The 700 Club, I thought it was in reference to their holier-than-thou attitude. :laugh::laugh:

lol

I have no moves (except further out) this month so I suppose I will just play the ol' crap game with my 15% equities - only breaking the lower supports (like where we landed way down earlier) will cause me to give that up as well.

And not long after we will have some fresh IFTs.

 

[Bquat]

I'd like to thing we threw out a 1-day-tight bull flag with the drift-down in prices, any thoughts?

I am very honored with your visit. I see what you mean by the short term Bull flag. But I was looking at the S&P over a 3 month time frame and was looking at maybe a rounded head top and think maybe that 1302 maybe can't be broken but as you can I was only slightly bearish yesterday. Today is looking good so far with a high base maybe forming. I just think were at a very strong resistance post and we need a push to gap it.

Majority of the time I have more security in what you say than what I come up with. I do think I'm increasing in my number of my right guesses than my wrongs, but these are guesses.

 

[JTH]

Good to see other folks out there calling the levels they see, some times folks point out things I didn't (but shouda) considered. Well I guess the 1-day tight bull flag didn't pan out I'm not in tune with the markets right now, I've been in school for the last 6 weeks and not at home. I will say my best lessons learned were from my mistakes, so I've learned a lot.

 

[Bquat]

Ok here we are again at 1295ish and we even built a high base. Bullish

Going down we hesitated at the 1302 area a couple of days, so we might have to consolidate here a few days before before moving up. Three days of gain, I hope the bulls are sure that we can keep going up and don't take profit here.

The good is that we both confirmed the inverse head and shoulders by breaking above 1290. Another good is that we have broke out above the resent down channel that was confirmed with both lower highs and lower lows and we may have confirmed a large bull flag. All these events could be very bullish in themselves.

The bad is that we have strong resistance at 1302-03, we hit the 50 dma at 1303 and the 20 dma at 1304 and investors look for a bounce off of daily moving averages and may have stops set in for and slight drop after touching these.

I 60/40 bullish and will get more bullish if there is consolidation here and no gain taking.

Maybe Birch's train theory may come in and we just bypass the next 3 stations and gap to 1305 and build a new high base at 1309ish. It could happen.

Well 51/49 Bullish today. Here we're at the coin toss area. Above post is the Sugar and below post is the Spice.

But I was looking at the S&P over a 3 month time frame and was looking at maybe a rounded head top and think maybe that 1302 maybe can't be broken but as you can I was only slightly bearish yesterday. Today is looking good so far with a high base maybe forming. I just think were at a very strong resistance point and we need a big push to gap it.

I do miss Sugar's and Spice's posts. They can figure this out amonst themself.

Come on down and read my post, I want to get 10,000 reads without reposting alot to get rereads. What do youuu think about the rounded top it could be bearish.

 

[Bquat]

Maybe Birch's train theory may come in and we just bypass the next 3 stations and gap to 1305 and build a new high base at 1309ish. It could happen.

Well it did. Does the train speed up from here? We"ll know in the next 12.25 min. Is there enought strenth to hold, will the bulls take profit.
Same channel, same station 1130 EST today.

Thanks for 10,000 reads guys.

 

[Birchtree]

I can't wait to step in front of the Grand Trunk and start buying again - opportunity is waiting.

 

[Bquat]

Sorry had to go do something. Is this an intraday head and shoulders forming. It could bring us back down to resistance.

 

[Mcqlives]

Nah, it broke your 1298 and 1305 solidly. Both of these will act as lower support levels going into tomorrow. GDP is the only biggie tomorrow so I look for a lighter trading day for consolidation. Hopefully this sets us up for a good first part of next week with the income and spending reports. We'll see how payrolls and claims come in for the last half of the week.

 

[Bquat]

I think we may have hit the top of the declining channel since the 1343 peak of 2/21/11. If you take the graft the S&P from Feb 1, 2011 to Mar 24, 2011 and select days, candlestick and redraw chart you can see the trend. Draw a line from the top toughing the next highest peak, it will extend right out to where we are now. 45/55 Bearish for tomorrow.

 

[nnuut]

Like this?
View attachment 10815

 

[jpcavin]

Like this?
View attachment 10815

I am glad this image is big enough so that I can ask the questions that I've been wanting to ask but couldn't see clearly enough.

What do to dark blue and white candles represent? Like, why are they different colors and different sizez? And what does the red line represent? In summary, what does this picture tell me and how do I know that?

Thanks

 

[burrocrat]

thin line is the range for the day, rectangle is the close, white = good, blue = bad, red line is how it's going.

that's how i see it anyway, someone correct me if i'm wrong.

 

[nasa1974]

I am glad this image is big enough so that I can ask the questions that I've been wanting to ask but couldn't see clearly enough.

What do to dark blue and white candles represent? Like, why are they different colors and different sizez? And what does the red line represent? In summary, what does this picture tell me and how do I know that?

Thanks

I know a little and I will let those with more knowledge really explain it. The blue candles represent the market moving lower and the whit candle represent the market moving higher. The red line is a trend line, kind of showing which direction the market is moving.

 

[burrocrat]

thin line is the range for the day, rectangle is the close, white = good, blue = bad, red line is how it's going.

that's how i see it anyway, someone correct me if i'm wrong.

oh, and the numbers on the left are value of the index, but the numbers on the top are dates.

 

[jpcavin]

Ok. Getting somewhere now. Still have a few questions.
I am assuming the wick is the thin line burro is talking about to represent the day's range? And the rectangle represents the close...how do I know where it closed if the rectangles are different sizes?

 

[Birchtree]

We'll probably break that resistance red line today for a breakout.