Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Glad we stayed above the Dead Cat Bounce line but at a little resistance. 50/50 with a tad bullish flavor::cheesy:

Even though we broke in the wrong direction I am still 50/50 with a tad bullish flavor. The Midterm channel intact and I have us currently oversold. Staying 50S/50G and not doubling down only because we're below the DCB line. Remember the orange Midterm line can be right on the purple line. It's just drawn above to see it:

 

[Bquat]

Well my 50/50 with bullish tad was wrong. The dip is diffidently bought at bottom of my longterm. We can embed to the downside with another bad day. Not changing my allocation because of this weakness. Is this the market reacting to more and more about what's in the stimulus package is coming out in the news having some second thought of it passing?:suspicious: I redrew the Midterm channel and thinking about redrawing the longterm but maybe not with this last touch of the bottom:

 

[Bquat]

Playing with the 18 EMA to be closer with Ira's 18 day. Need to top it to be slightly bullish. Looks like this morning that there will not be enough buying to keep us from being embedded to the downside.:worried: So 60/40 bearish but remaining with my allocation because I am only half in.:blink:

 

[Bquat]

Playing with the 18 EMA to be closer with Ira's 18 day. Need to top it to be slightly bullish. Looks like this morning that there will not be enough buying to keep us from being embedded to the downside.:worried: So 60/40 bearish but remaining with my allocation because I am only half in.:blink:

We are embedded to the downside. Testing my 18 EMA as support and maybe a bottom. This is a bull flag but I am still slightly bearish until we unembed::worried:

 

[Bquat]

I have to decide if I stick with the OLD channel or go with the new Longterm channel for March:

 

[Bquat]

I have to decide if I stick with the OLD channel or go with the new Longterm channel for March:

Need to get back above 2160 to keep the new longterm.

 

[joblin20]

Not looking good at all.

 

[Bquat]

Back to the old channel it is for March.:worried: Well there went almost all my gains for this month. This is enough for a correction now but is it enough? We are embedded to the downside and with the economic outlook being so good, good news may be bad news for the market. Long term interest rates on treasury yields may be on the rise and traders maybe can make more on them and bonds than the market. I don't really know what that means but that's what was mentioned for this big drop. I have not drawn a Dead Cat Bounce line because this was a news based over reaction, I hope. I have us on old resistance acting as support but who knows::blink:

 

[Bquat]

Good news is the 50 Day was tested and held. By the way I finally figured out how to get closing moving averages on this site.:smile: I removed the blue support line because it didn't seem to matter. The bad news is I had added the Dead Cat Bounce line for myself and the market was bought back up to it and dropped. We are embedded to the downside and can the double bottom dip (small blue line) hold as support::suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

Back to the old channel it is for March.:worried: Well there went almost all my gains for this month. This is enough for a correction now but is it enough? We are embedded to the downside and with the economic outlook being so good, good news may be bad news for the market. Long term interest rates on treasury yields may be on the rise and traders maybe can make more on them and bonds than the market. I don't really know what that means but that's what was mentioned for this big drop. I have not drawn a Dead Cat Bounce line because this was a news based over reaction, I hope. I have us on old resistance acting as support but who knows::blink:

Yeah what Tommy said

 

[Bquat]

This pop is good enough to unembed us but there is a gap and we are right at resistance from the top of my midterm channel. The test of the 18 day as resistance is right there also. We did pop above the DCB line so I removed it. Not doubling do yet::blink:

 

[puttfordough]

hello
new to the site as of today
like the chart analysis
which line shows how high the DWCPF could go, looking at the most recent chart

 

[Whipsaw]

hello
new to the site as of today
like the chart analysis
which line shows how high the DWCPF could go, looking at the most recent chart

Welcome aboard, PFD! Glad you could join us.

 

[flalaw97]

which line shows how high the DWCPF could go, looking at the most recent chart

Welcome Puttfordough! I will let Bquat explain his charts in detail, but the lines don't act as predictors like that. As I understand it, they show trading "channels" that the S fund may be in. So the way Bquat has drawn the midterm channel (yellow) it is a downward trending channel indicating that if it stays in that channel, price will tend to go down, but the longterm channel (purple) is an upward trending channel showing movement upward over time.

 

[Bquat]

Today's action is better than I expected. It also can be news based because of the Covid relief bill passing the house. We are now unembedded and 60/40 bullish. It can only be ruined if the bill doesn't pass the Senate. The Midterm channel can now act as a bull flag. With continued good news we can double top around 2270 but more likely at the top of the Longterm purple line. I am remaining at 50S/50G until the stimulus decision is made and watching the 18 Day and red line.

 

[Bquat]

hello
new to the site as of today
like the chart analysis
which line shows how high the DWCPF could go, looking at the most recent chart

Top purple line 2240. I hope my latest post explains a little better. On the previous post I was expecting the Midterm channel to hold but the news reaction was too much for that and I don't know if it was an over reaction.:suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

Today's action is better than I expected. It also can be news based because of the Covid relief bill passing the house. .

Or maybe because we have a third Covid shot and we can look at getting back to what might be normal by the end of summer.

 

[Bquat]

Today's action is better than I expected. It also can be news based because of the Covid relief bill passing the house. We are now unembedded and 60/40 bullish. It can only be ruined if the bill doesn't pass the Senate. The Midterm channel can now act as a bull flag. With continued good news we can double top around 2270 but more likely at the top of the Longterm purple line. I am remaining at 50S/50G until the stimulus decision is made and watching the 18 Day and red line.

18 Day and red line held as resistance and it does seem like there was an over reaction to the news. Shouldn't be enough selling to to be a problem but we're already testing support. No change for me still waiting on Senate vote. 50S/50G:

 

[Bquat]

18 Day and red line held as resistance and it does seem like there was an over reaction to the news. Shouldn't be enough selling to to be a problem but we're already testing support. No change for me still waiting on Senate vote. 50S/50G:

Maybe selling is a problem. If we re-embed after one day aren't we still embedded to the downside? Back into the Midterm channel just like that::worried:

 

[Bquat]

The bad news is we confirmed that we're re-embedded to the downside.:worried: The good news is that we filled the gap and tested the bottom of the Longterm channel as support: