Bquat's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

There you go. The market is trying to show everything I said is wrong. Maybe I was right about post market analysis is easier.

As they say, "Hindsight is 20/20...:nuts:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I show page 999...so maybe this post will hit your page 1,000!!! :nuts: I guess we will see......



...here I go chasing the carrot!

Hey Bquat! You're on 999 pages! Who gets to move you onto page 1000?!! :cheesy:

I show page 1198.

.... waaaaa I didn't make it.
oh well I tried!

 

[Bquat]

I had mentioned before that there was a price range between my exit and N 1. So todays interest rate news of no change brought us back to the top of it. It may be a breakout but this was mostly do to good news so we'll see. So two news events over the last three days brought us from a little bear flag to a sideways consolidation which is bullish. What was I thinking? I can't fight the news. Yes Whipsaw, we may have to buy in at a higher price than my exit. What? "Whipsaw Wednesday" you say. I have also have to admit what I labeled top was the first gap down (I looked back). In my mind in was a good exit but we will see about that also::blink:

 

[sparky714]

Only reason I stumbled on this post is because I love to read Bquat's charts / enjoy his analysis.

Ray, you pretty much nailed it. Sat in G fund since July 5 2019 waiting for opportunity.. Been looking to swap into the long game for a while now. Active duty Navy, moving OCONUS, and needed to go long because I won't be able to follow the market while deployed 7 months out of the year for the next 3 years.

Didn't "call" the bottom, but with all the panic selling going on & dow fluctuating around 20k for a few days, seemed like an appropriate place (+ an indicator from a premium service). The market had already lost 33% (Dow almost hit 30k); the S-Fund was down 35% from Jan 1. I figured so what if I lost another 10-20% from the point I bought in. If you remember, hedge funds, mutual funds, and just about everyone else were being forced to sell bc their clients were moving to cash. The markets were in panic mode.. So much selling pressure (and extreme volatility swings) created a point for me to buy in & go long the next 3-5 years. Things simply worked out quicker than expected .. Either way, it's a nice little boost to the nest egg.

 

[rangerray]

Only reason I stumbled on this post is because I love to read Bquat's charts / enjoy his analysis.

Ray, you pretty much nailed it. Sat in G fund since July 5 2019 waiting for opportunity.. Been looking to swap into the long game for a while now. Active duty Navy, moving OCONUS, and needed to go long because I won't be able to follow the market while deployed 7 months out of the year for the next 3 years.

Didn't "call" the bottom, but with all the panic selling going on & dow fluctuating around 20k for a few days, seemed like an appropriate place (+ an indicator from a premium service). The market had already lost 33% (Dow almost hit 30k); the S-Fund was down 35% from Jan 1. I figured so what if I lost another 10-20% from the point I bought in. If you remember, hedge funds, mutual funds, and just about everyone else were being forced to sell bc their clients were moving to cash. The markets were in panic mode.. So much selling pressure (and extreme volatility swings) created a point for me to buy in & go long the next 3-5 years. Things simply worked out quicker than expected .. Either way, it's a nice little boost to the nest egg.

Well, then it seems to me a little more than dumb luck! Congratulations on your trade. You are a shining beacon for the rest of us. Thanks for your service to our country as well. You will reap many rewards from having served that I wasn't fully aware of when I was deploying aboard the USS Saratoga in the late 80's. I gained pride in my country and consider myself a Patriot. My service later helped me secure a career as a park ranger under the Dept. of Defense. And, I gained experience on the flight deck that cannot be matched by any other job, secured with life-long friendships with fellow sailors that I still interact with daily.

 

[Whipsaw]

I had mentioned before that there was a price range between my exit and N 1. So todays interest rate news of no change brought us back to the top of it. It may be a breakout but this was mostly do to good news so we'll see. So two news events over the last three days brought us from a little bear flag to a sideways consolidation which is bullish. What was I thinking? I can't fight the news. Yes Whipsaw, we may have to buy in at a higher price than my exit. What? "Whipsaw Wednesday" you say. I have also have to admit what I labeled top was the first gap down (I looked back). In my mind in was a good exit but we will see about that also::blink:

Did somebody say Whipsaw?! Its all good, your charts are a daily point of order for my edification. I'm trying a new approach ala DBA following the moving averages. The only thing I don't like is the bite one must take before the move indicator hits. CH is bullish. Futures are down right now, some crazy news in the mix too. Will be interesting going forward if nothing else.

 

[Bquat]

Did somebody say Whipsaw?! Its all good, your charts are a daily point of order for my edification. I'm trying a new approach ala DBA following the moving averages. The only thing I don't like is the bite one must take before the move indicator hits. CH is bullish. Futures are down right now, some crazy news in the mix too. Will be interesting going forward if nothing else.

Thanks for the comments. I like that you are working more closely with DBA.She is pretty stable and forth coming with her thoughts.

 

[Whipsaw]

DBA's new charts are good too.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DWCPF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p21339788438&a=759299215

 

[Bquat]

Better drop and bounce than I expected. Did show the news was over bought. Still within the price range. Still confirming the bottom of the channel and continuing the Ascending Triangle. Both bullish but I don't know if the Short term is just news based bullish or not. :suspicious: Anyway I have today and tomorrow to just watch:

 

[Bquat]

Sorry for the late post but I went out for a good breakfast to stimulate my waitresses economy. Only one there for first forty minutes so I doubled tipped.:smile:

 

[Whipsaw]

Bqat, you tipped over to page 1000! That's some kind of milestone... not sure what kind, but still... congrats!

 

[Bquat]

Better drop and bounce than I expected. Did show the news was over bought. Still within the price range. Still confirming the bottom of the channel and continuing the Ascending Triangle. Both bullish but I don't know if the Short term is just news based bullish or not. :suspicious: Anyway I have today and tomorrow to just watch:

Stronger than I expected for today but it did confirm false breakout and the top of the short term is resistance. Looks like we are right near my exit and may carry the short term and the bottom of the channel into next month:

 

[Bquat]

Haven't done a VIX chart in a while. Still waiting for the 50 EMA to cross the 200 EMA but as before the Fear Zone is still like the old No Fear Zone:

 

[Bquat]

Weakness today probably because of bad GDP announcement yesterday.:worried: Still may stay in channel:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Did somebody say Whipsaw?! Its all good, your charts are a daily point of order for my edification. I'm trying a new approach ala DBA following the moving averages. The only thing I don't like is the bite one must take before the move indicator hits. CH is bullish. Futures are down right now, some crazy news in the mix too. Will be interesting going forward if nothing else.

Whipsaw, I too dislike the bite one would take if waiting to exit only after the 13 EMA drops below 20 SMA. I am looking for a different exit signal, but haven't identified what to follow yet.

I've always had a tendency to exit early but have miss out, so the 13/20 crossover looked like a good way to extend my stay in equities and to help me avoid exiting during normal noise. And it has worked....I rarely stay in this long! But, I must say I didn't follow my strategy to the "T" only because I made partial exits this month to pocket some gains and slowly lower exposure/risk in hopes of reducing that exiting bite you mentioned!

I must laugh ...lol...because Heck! that crossover indicator still hasn't crossed to give an exit! :laugh: I now am only in equities 20%, and I plan to leave it in until the crossover exit indicator hits in either S, C or I. But its very close on EFA I fund chart. (unfortunately too busy at work and didn't check until 11:58, so was too late for exit ....I might have exited today). Maybe I'll go back after-the-fact and see what I would have made if I had not reduced exposure...hummm...

Over the years, I have used combo of Stochastics and MACD for exit. So, I'm considering using those and/or the 3EMA/5 EMA crossover, which I used to have on my charts. Will see...

Thanks for the comments. I like that you are working more closely with DBA.She is pretty stable and forth coming with her thoughts.

Bquat, Thank you for your kind compliment! :smile: I really like your Trading View charts.

Best wishes to you both! :smile:

 

[Bquat]

Weakness today probably because of bad GDP announcement yesterday.:worried: Still may stay in channel:

Yeah what he said. Bottom tail line held and channel is still good. No need to redraw for August until we consolidate sideways past the channel or exit the price range. We are 60/40 to go up but sometimes when you keep going sideways too long it can be considered as a flat top that can bring on a bigger drop. I may wait for a bigger move to happen before making a decision to enter. Still can't figure out why the price range is so news dependent::suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

I'm using short term as price range or visa versa.:cheesy:

 

[Bquat]

No move for me today:

 

[Bquat]

Are we there yet? I don't know. Considering moving the top of the short term up to the dotted line but didn't. I think 60/40 chance that the market could take today's action as a double top.:worried: It seems like there is no rush to fill the gap and no reasonable profit taking for a while. Will the bottom of the gap be a point where profit taking will happen. I don't know that either. Spidey is silent but I am still hesitant to get in. May be just too happy with my gains after my last big loss. Things look bullish and this is a break out but I have no trust.:blink:

 

[flalaw97]

I really like these charts - so easy to read. I think that we are headed up that midterm channel. What would it take to slant the short term channel upwards?