Bquat's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Many Wall Street types got caught on the negative slope and missed the last 10% bull run - they don't want to miss the next 10% run just in case this is 2009 all over again - I suspect volume will increase next week. The market has too much room to increase if 1228 breaks higher, and it may not see these levels again for quite some time if that hapens. The bond market is getting ready to roll over.

 

[Bquat]

Many Wall Street types got caught on the negative slope and missed the last 10% bull run - they don't want to miss the next 10% run just in case this is 2009 all over again - I suspect volume will increase next week. The market has too much room to increase if 1228 breaks higher, and it may not see these levels again for quite some time if that hapens. The bond market is getting ready to roll over.

I agree with you on the increased volume, but after a higher low is set.

 

[Happy_Trails]

VIX has a long way to run if we are heading back down. It's at the low end of the recent trading range and climbing mightily today. It will be interesting to see how things go in the last hour today, both for VIX and price.

 

[cak165]

So assuming the shorts have been squeezed out last couple of weeks and the bulls are either taking a breather or spooked by the German comments about the speed of the bailout. You'd think the market will find some equilibrium point and then starts looking at fundamentals, like earnings and outlook for a change?

 

[Bquat]

So assuming the shorts have been squeezed out last couple of weeks and the bulls are either taking a breather or spooked by the German comments about the speed of the bailout. You'd think the market will find some equilibrium point and then starts looking at fundamentals, like earnings and outlook for a change?

If your talking to me, fundamentals are only working in the mid to long range trades at top and bottom of channels or at major breaks of the 200. Day traders and big money can go to the top of the channel and back down in a day with fast computers. This is what Nnutt and I have been saying for a while. They can buy up a dip or sell a peak and watch for followers and when the price continues up or down, they can reverse their direction and take the profit in both directions. If they short they can buy into the close at a lower price to cover, if after a dip they can buy the morning price and get it at a low price before the gap up. That's why I say look for confirmation before buying. It can be up 2% at IFT time and be 1% down at the close as you watch futures go down more after your IFT has you in. I try to pre-guess the move by drawing my channel tops and bottom levels with a bearish outlook most of the time because I'm more worried about loss than gain. Capital preservation is my key. I'm just drawing a little bullish because we have been getting small down swings lately. So I have a little more bullish outlook lately but looking fo a dip to 1178ish S&P to set a higher Low before setting another higher high. The financial managers have to follow soon to show some profits for their clients, so I expect more of a following in a bullish move. Just me guessing.

Ok I hope that was for me?

 

[cak165]

Thanks Bquat, that was for you, it's your thread, right? :toung:

What you wrote makes sense to a certain extent, but I just don't believe traders and robots at all these firms and hedge funds operating in unison to create a monolithic market. I tend to think that's why we keep seeing these wild gyrations in a single day (or in a single hour). My point is that at this point of time where there's a vacuum of shorts (because of the recent squeeze) and longs taking a breather and waiting for news from Europe, those same bots and traders will have to start paying attention to specific stocks and sectors as earnings come in. So in a way, I just think the market may actually start moving because of fundamentals, or maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part and there's no such thing as fundamentals anymore...

 

[Bquat]

Thanks Bquat, that was for you, it's your thread, right? :toung:

What you wrote makes sense to a certain extent, but I just don't believe traders and robots at all these firms and hedge funds operating in unison to create a monolithic market. I tend to think that's why we keep seeing these wild gyrations in a single day (or in a single hour). My point is that at this point of time where there's a vacuum of shorts (because of the recent squeeze) and longs taking a breather and waiting for news from Europe, those same bots and traders will have to start paying attention to specific stocks and sectors as earnings come in. So in a way, I just think the market may actually start moving because of fundamentals, or maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part and there's no such thing as fundamentals anymore...

I think your trying to say the volatility or swings in the market will be less by traders buying more in the direction of the earnings reports instead of the news. If the earnings of the major companies follow a trend of being good, the market may go up antispating other companies getting gains also, while what I'm saying is that there is so much computer trading, that the market can over react in either direction for each anouncement. That is why they ars checking into charging a fee to those that are super trading the move before traders can even get in or out. A movement up for two weeks and then down for two weeks would be great but the market has become a day traders dream. If they would stop short trading and overnight trading, it would take out a lot of volatility because people couldn't lose their investment pre and aftermarket and profit couldn't be made in both directions. Short trading is why the market can go down a lot more than the news may have warrented. Wish we could trade once a day and didn't have to risk loss while waiting for the market move up because of the fear of missing gains by using are last IFT for the month. I think I'm getting too talkative and I'm already out of IFT's this month and hope we don't break 1230 until Nov 1.

 

[Bquat]

Here's the simple chart.

Ok going with a bullish outlook and with earning season comming up, we may break the 1230 level. Imho I don't think well break it right now. I think well set a higher high at 1230 and set a higher low at 1178. The market needs to consolidate a little more and let volume to the up side. I feel the dip will be bought at 1178ish and the next leg up will have more volume to it when a higher low is set.

So I'm little bear until 1178 holds and can't get in until November 1st. I hope the boom waits till I Have IFT's and I'll jump on the kaboose if I can and there should be oportunities above 1230 also.

I'm just going with the positive pulse of the market this time of year. Just remember spidey can sincse loss and I'm not too good with the gain side but improving. Ok you heard it here first.

Sooo short term bearish 60/40.

Post your counter or pro comments here to give people more to think about.

This is still good. Here's new simple chart. Still have 1190 and 1178 to test. 1205 acted as support the first hit and as resistance the next two hits, so a low base is formed on 1200. Still thinking 60/40 bearish.

 

[Bquat]

Building a high base here and this thing may not wait for me on 1 Nov 11.

I'm even losing my short term berish outlook. I vote for 3 IFT's a month.

 

[cak165]

So you no longer think we'll form a high base in 1187-1190 area? Where do you see this moving?

 

[Bquat]

So you no longer think we'll form a high base in 1187-1190 area? Where do you see this moving?

No, it seems like it's forming above 1190 by consolidating between 1190 and 1220. It never went to the bottom of my current channel. This looks real bullish to me. If good news breaks again about Europe we can break and hold 1330.

 

[rikarus]

sigh three ifts would be awesome,or just two and any move to g not counting against the two!

 

[Mcqlives]

No, it seems like it's forming above 1190 by consolidating between 1190 and 1220. It never went to the bottom of my current channel. This looks real bullish to me. If good news breaks again about Europe we can break and hold 1330.

This is exactly what I have been waiting for...unfortunately I have waited so long I have missed a lot of gain. I am still looking at buying in way lower than I sold at. Hoping that we revisit the 1200 mark tomorrow or Friday for me to make an entry.

Best of luck Bquat (aka - GETTING BIGGER BULL!)

 

[Birchtree]

The real test for SPX may come between 1230 - 1260 and how it behaves once those levels are reached. If the SPX barrels through these levels in a gusto fashion that would be bullish. How the consolidation then sets up may be important - giving back some on weaker volume would be positive. If the bear reenters and the reversal is swift with volume and negative breadth then the bear wins again. I'm buying the rallies and stepping back from the dips.

 

[Mcqlives]

The real test for SPX may come between 1230 - 1260 and how it behaves once those levels are reached. If the SPX barrels through these levels in a gusto fashion that would be bullish. How the consolidation then sets up may be important - giving back some on weaker volume would be positive. If the bear reenters and the reversal is swift with volume and negative breadth then the bear wins again. I'm buying the rallies and stepping back from the dips.

Birch,

I think there will be weaker volume with a slight decline with a subsequent run up but I am interested if you think this is more likely or if you think the bear will again raise it's head?

 

[Birchtree]

I believe the bears are done growling for now - even though they'll have their moments in the future. I'm increasing my buying objectives because things are getting better and the market will discount the future. But remember I operate on contrarian instincts and blaze my own trails. Why would anyone in their right mind want to buy homebuilders besides me.

 

[Bquat]

This is exactly what I have been waiting for...unfortunately I have waited so long I have missed a lot of gain. I am still looking at buying in way lower than I sold at. Hoping that we revisit the 1200 mark tomorrow or Friday for me to make an entry.

Best of luck Bquat (aka - GETTING BIGGER BULL!)

Might get your wish, looking for 1205 or 1190 to hold for you. I'm in the F fishing. Better than the pond pondering.

 

[Mcqlives]

I believe the bears are done growling for now - even though they'll have their moments in the future. I'm increasing my buying objectives because things are getting better and the market will discount the future. But remember I operate on contrarian instincts and blaze my own trails. Why would anyone in their right mind want to buy homebuilders besides me.

For an insane man you are one funny %$ every once in a while!!!:laugh:

 

[Mcqlives]

I am in the F myself. Pretty much flat (a very little profit) since I got in last month. 1206 bounced pretty hard but will it hold? I am waiting till Friday I think...maybe till Monday to make a decision.

 

[Bquat]

I am in the F myself. Pretty much flat (a very little profit) since I got in last month. 1206 bounced pretty hard but will it hold? I am waiting till Friday I think...maybe till Monday to make a decision.

Good choice not to get in on friday. If Europe doesn't get it streight before Friday, I don't think many will hold over the weekend. Just a guess?