Bquat's Account Talk

[Happy_Trails]

You know he may be right because big money may have not sold yet because of a slow drift down. We may still gap down this afternoon or tomorrow.:worried:

One very important thing to keep in mind is that he is also expecting a huge rally off of the bottom, as much as 20%.

 

[Happy_Trails]

One very important thing to keep in mind is that he is also expecting a huge rally off of the bottom, as much as 20%.

To add, I don't think we get to that bottom today. If I had to guess, I would say short-term bounce for one to three days followed by more downside. 1120 area may now act as resistance, we'll see.

 

[Happy_Trails]

1105ish seems to be acting as support.

 

[cak165]

I appreciate all the technical analysis all of you have provided but I think we have to throw all of that out of the window when the next shoe drops (Greek default followed by a bank run on Italy and Spain, and/or possibly a Chinese bubble crash), all support and resistance levels will be vaporized. I don't know if it makes much sense to look at support and resistance levels when the market is ruled by so many external factors and trading bots.

 

[Happy_Trails]

I appreciate all the technical analysis all of you have provided but I think we have to throw all of that out of the window when the next shoe drops (Greek default followed by a bank run on Italy and Spain, and/or possibly a Chinese bubble crash), all support and resistance levels will be vaporized. I don't know if it makes much sense to look at support and resistance levels when the market is ruled by so many external factors and trading bots.

I think support/resistance levels are a decent tool but to follow them blindly is of course, myopic at best.

 

[Bquat]

I appreciate all the technical analysis all of you have provided but I think we have to throw all of that out of the window when the next shoe drops (Greek default followed by a bank run on Italy and Spain, and/or possibly a Chinese bubble crash), all support and resistance levels will be vaporized. I don't know if it makes much sense to look at support and resistance levels when the market is ruled by so many external factors and trading bots.

If you review this thread you will see that I have stated the TA has not worked for this news ever since the earthquake in Japan. This year has all been about news but TA does give you a heads up to where you may get out before the falling knife or get in during a uptrend. The markets lately follow the news which isn't quite normal. The doom and gloom affect causes panic selling and everone wanting to buy dips to make any profit they can.

There is more and more trading by computers that use charts and graphs from previous market activity to call for a trade or sell. Previous stops and hesitations on the way up tend to be stops and hesitations on the way down. These points are set by the programers for the computers to watch for a bounce and if there isn't one they continue the selling shortly. So the low base is formed. On the way up the same happens and a high base is formed at resistance while they watch for the bounce down. No sell off at a high base means they buy to the next level.

Technical analysis not working this year is why the premiun servies are not as good this year. They have to be interpided more by the manager as to a true sell or buy.

 

[Cattman]

Looks like we're climbing up the tracker 5 more slots.

 

[Bquat]

Looks like we're climbing up the tracker 5 more slots.

Yea, not enought people got in above me to get back to the 50's. I did notice you came back down to me but wasn't going to say anything.
Is is kind of cool being in the top 100 for a while without doing any thing. Bad for some of the ones who did. About 10 going below the g fund. I hope no falling knife for them.

 

[Bquat]

So much for the low base holding, thought shorts were covering then boom sell kicks in. After market and premarket may see selling. Glad I don't have to worry about it. I was expecting late afternoon selling but thought I was wrong when I saw the movement up.

 

[Cattman]

Glad I bailed when I did after the past week. Hopefully will get the signal to jump back in soon.

 

[Bquat]

Glad I bailed when I did after the past week. Hopefully will get the signal to jump back in soon.

Yea give me a heads up.

Remember I'm the one that misses loses but not much luck at the gains.

That's why I'm evaluating the IT system to help me on the up side. I'm good for 4 to 6% and I may reach it with G if I have too.:worried:

 

[Cactus]

It is kind of cool being in the top 100 for a while without doing any thing. Bad for some of the ones who did. About 10 going below the g fund. I hope no falling knife for them.

Sitting in G for September was the only way I got off the Bottom 100. I'm actually having people fall below me. :blink: That's kind of sad actually. Looking at the Auto Tracker, almost 3/4 of us are negative for the year. Any idea how bad it has gotten in previous years? This is my 1st year following the AT.

 

[Mcqlives]

Uptrend sure makes a good case but I am open to other possibilities too. There may even be some room to the upside that I am not expecting with some good news from BO. Even with that possible upside action I don't see how we can break the 1224ish mark. Way too much negative data even without Europe being too much of a meltdown waiting to happen...Time to throw out a prediction...I am looking for 1027 SPX by the 26th. I hope that I am wrong and Uptrends 985 is even more wrong.

Bquat,

Just thought I would bring up our conversation a few weeks ago. This was my post on September 7th when I thought we would see the bottom within a few weeks. Obviously that did not happen but the trend lines did hold within the range I thought they would. The bull run was largely based on the smoke that the EU and our own fed blew up everyones arse...now that the smoke is clearing there is even more negative to be seen. I hope that I am wrong but the potential for things to get much worse (than what I or Uptrend were looking at early last month) is very worrisome.

No predictions on my part for now. I will check out Uptrends morning comments for his view and try to start making plans to research more than usual as I see a buying opportunity in the near future.

Good luck to all!!!

 

[Happy_Trails]

To add, I don't think we get to that bottom today. If I had to guess, I would say short-term bounce for one to three days followed by more downside. 1120 area may now act as resistance, we'll see.

Since we didn't see any strength whatsoever by the close, I think all bets are off. Would not be surprised to see more downside follow through tomorrow.

 

[Bquat]

Ok, here's the simple chart. Remember that we broke 1100 at the close. Look at the red line. There may be a bounce at 1076. I didn't see it until I looked to see why that number?

I put in some support lines and thinking of watching the 950 area for the bottom.:worried: It might pass it.

ok:
1076
1050
1000
950
900
Glad to see more guessing here. More inputs increase chance of better decisions.
In the pond pondering.
Miss FAB1 he must be hard at work, early to bed and maybe no light at the end of this tunnel.

 

[amoeba]

Since we didn't see any strength whatsoever by the close, I think all bets are off. Would not be surprised to see more downside follow through tomorrow.

Today was with benign economics (ISM, construction spending) and no news. Frankly, I think the markets will be utterly crushed this month - at least another 10% down, no end in sight after that, and no buying opportunities worth risking. The monthly return winner is likely to be 100% F.

All that talk about "this is not 2008" is more troubling than calming. Duhhh. It's worse. The failed, temporary, "solutions", to 2008 problems aren't viable options now. And it's more than just USA.

 

[Bquat]

Ok, here's the simple chart. Remember that we broke 1100 at the close. Look at the red line. There may be a bounce at 1076. I didn't see it until I looked to see why that number?

I put in some support lines and thinking of watching the 950 area for the bottom.:worried: It might pass it.

ok:
1076
1050
1000
950
900
Glad to see more guessing here. More inputs increase chance of better decisions.
In the pond pondering.
Miss FAB1 he must be hard at work, early to bed and maybe no light at the end of this tunnel.

1076ish did hold. 1088 was tested twice after the bounce and we need to break it to the up side to continue up. I think we may go down to 1050 and this bounce shows us some bull are out there. As you know the computers look for a bounce and sell off if it fails cross fingers.

I have an appointment today so I'll be back after IFT time. Anyway I'm happy in my pond for today. No rush to get it. I missed enought loss to wait for a good entry.

 

[Bquat]

Well I'm back. Well at the bowling alley.

Looks like dip buying under the 200 DMA again. Without going over previous support at 1100. This may be only a lower high setting in. Buy at resistance get them to follow and sell for profit. This has been happening lately and people lose to big money. Me I'll wait for confirmation. Better to miss a small gain than....:worried:

 

[Mcqlives]

And going into the last 1/2 hour we have a rally. The VIX has got to be worn out after a day like today! I did not think we would break 1097 today and we are over it for the second time now...maybe we can finally start looking for a low?

 

[FAB1]

And going into the last 1/2 hour we have a rally. The VIX has got to be worn out after a day like today! I did not think we would break 1097 today and we are over it for the second time now...maybe we can finally start looking for a low?

Wonder if the sharp rise was news-triggered? I didnt hear anything but Im still checking it out.