Bottom?

[Tomncath]

Been a while since I posted.... What amazes me is when I see articles wondering if we're seeing the bottom, or close to the bottom. Hey Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore...how can anyone think we're even close to a bottom with these fundamentals...the technicals are meaningless right now, we're in unprecedented territory, and to quote a Patrick Swayze movie line "You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming".

 

[Guest2]

Been a while since I posted.... What amazes me is when I see articles wondering if we're seeing the bottom, or close to the bottom. Hey Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore...how can anyone think we're even close to a bottom with these fundamentals...the technicals are meaningless right now, we're in unprecedented territory, and to quote a Patrick Swayze movie line "You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming".

Fundamentals and Facts have been replaced by Fear and Emotion.
The Indexes are down between -40% and -50% and a bounce will
be amazing. Maybe its not the bottom, but with the S&P being at
9x's Value, a bounce of tremendous proportion is what I expect.

"I'm not Bad, I'm just drawn that way" {Jessica - Roger Rabbit} :cheesy:

 

[poolman]

Fundamentals and Facts have been replaced by Fear and Emotion.
The Indexes are down between -40% and -50% and a bounce will
be amazing. Maybe its not the bottom, but with the S&P being at
9x's Value, a bounce of tremendous proportion is what I expect.

"I'm not Bad, I'm just drawn that way" {Jessica - Roger Rabbit} :cheesy:

The whole problem is "Where and What will the Catalyst Be".

It is not going to happen for some time. I don't see it.

 

[Frixxxx]

Fundamentals and Facts have been replaced by Fear and Emotion.
The Indexes are down between -40% and -50% and a bounce will
be amazing. Maybe its not the bottom, but with the S&P being at
9x's Value, a bounce of tremendous proportion is what I expect.

"I'm not Bad, I'm just drawn that way" {Jessica - Roger Rabbit} :cheesy:

There WILL NOT be a big step back. Most people will go,"Man, I wish I was in back when the market was at those lows in April 09."

The whole problem is "Where and What will the Catalyst Be".

It is not going to happen for some time. I don't see it.

Nice crystal ball, if you get a clearer picture, LET ME KNOW!!!

 

[Corepuncher]

Major dark clouds looming...and gathering over yonder. We had better hope it is not worst case, because contrary to some in the media who say "the depression is off the table", it isn't. It struck Iceland without warning. If our recessions gets really deep, and unemployment keeps going up, house prices will continue to decline and so much debt will be forced on the U.S. balance sheet that our credit will suffer and foreign entities could stop funding our sorry debt-laden asses!

At the very least, I expect these dark clouds to keep the lid on any rallies over the next 2-3 months.

 

[KevinD]

With the price of crude coming down so has the price of gas. (Deflation?)

When does the inflation start? Is it when the dollar takes a dump or what?

 

[Tomncath]

Sure there will be a bounce, but when and for how long is anybodies guess...the reality is that we're losing TONS of jobs and the Bear will not hibernate for quite a while....

 

[amoeba]

I would beg to differ that the technicals are meaningless right no:

Previously - the market has NOT acted on technicals, instead, taking this forward looking view that, despite poor guidance, overleveraging, inflation of homes (and not of wages), increasing unemployment, tighter credit, the market in the next 6 months will go higher than it is now, and this is a bargain. That inflated the market (or at least reduced the decline from what it should have been).

So what we have seen, since mid september, is a FAIRLY evaluated market, based on technicals as mentioned. Sort of a mass-reality-check. In addition to those factors mentioned, the reduced home equity of everyone, will continue to constrain spending - through all of next year at least - and consumers will have to draw on investments.

A second factor is this market is taking NO PRISONERS; except for shorts - nothing is producing a return, not bonds, stocks, large stocks, small stocks, not steel, not commodities (not gold). Cramer has been pounding the table about collecting dividend-paying stocks, but those dividends are not guaranteed. The only place to put money without guarantee of loss is treasuries. Everything else will continue to go down. NOT a V bottom.

A third factor is that the problems are not over. Credit was only the beginning. AIG is running out of money (again). So are other insurance companies. Notwithstanding the last homesales numbers, the effect of the recent equity decline on that has not yet hit the fan (just wait till october's sales). If you think unemployment is high now, wait till after the holidays.

The fourth factor, and I've mentioned this before, is that government intervention -while having a temporary effect - is not a solution to all these issues. If anything, it delays the inevitable deleveraging. I expect more - probably another stimulus package - so if that happens, expect a bounce on dumb money, and a nice selling opportunity (for those who haven't yet bailed).

Whatever is behind us, the worst is yet to come. When that will be is hard to say, but anywhere from next week to next august.

 

[Birchtree]

If you investigated individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. I think the next asset bubble will be in S&P type equities. Currently the M aggrgates are expanding to the tune of 25%....watch for GDP to be slightly positive. There is still no sign of a recession - only a mid-cycle slow down like in 1995.

 

[Tomncath]

...the market in the next 6 months will go higher than it is now

Whatever is behind us, the worst is yet to come. When that will be is hard to say, but anywhere from next week to next august.

I have my doubts about the first line, the second line is probably true but I doubt we'll see the worst any time soon and the recovery will be very protracted.

 

[The HalfBreed]

Fundamentals and Facts have been replaced by Fear and Emotion.
The Indexes are down between -40% and -50% and a bounce will
be amazing. Maybe its not the bottom, but with the S&P being at
9x's Value, a bounce of tremendous proportion is what I expect.

And I'd agree.........
No one can predict the bottom, however, I'm in the market and will move more into the market over the next year + and STAY there for a long while. I've started moving funds (DCA'ing) from the F to the C in a time frame of approx 6-12 months, starting last week. On the side, I started picking up shares of GE (355 shares) at around 17.5-18.5 and FORD Stocks (1300 shares...... I know, I know.....) but that's my play money.....something I wanna look at in 5-7 years.

Only time will tell, because hindsight always has perfect vision.

 

[Tomncath]

And I'd agree.........
No one can predict the bottom, however, I'm in the market and will move more into the market over the next year + and STAY there for a long while. I've started moving funds (DCA'ing) from the F to the C in a time frame of approx 6-12 months, starting last week. On the side, I started picking up shares of GE (355 shares) at around 17.5-18.5 and FORD Stocks (1300 shares...... I know, I know.....) but that's my play money.....something I wanna look at in 5-7 years.

Only time will tell, because hindsight always has perfect vision.

I wish everyone good luck, it's sure going to be a bumpy ride...as Tom would say, keep your powder dry.

 

[amoeba]

I have my doubts about the first line, the second line is probably true but I doubt we'll see the worst any time soon and the recovery will be very protracted.

I disagreed with the first line myself (too many commas, I suppose); and I totally agree with you on the doubts (protracted recovery); if asia's whacking on their monday is any indication, we may have seen the last of S&P of 1,000 for quite awhile.

Sell any rally in the S&P of 900's. That is, if we see 900 next year.