Bottom Feeders on the tracker

Sort by newest Sort by date
JTH

JTH

TSP Legend
Reaction score
780
These are just a few observations, I'm sure some of you have a few of your own to add. Most folks here know I've spent a long time in the bottom of the tracker, but nevertheless, these are some things I felt I should share with the forum.

I've seen folks who use to post all the time, spouting off this and that. When they make it to the bottom of the tracker, they suddenly disappear?

I've learned from experience when you're at the bottom of the tracker your judgment can be severely impaired because your level of risk tolerance goes down.

Folks at the bottom of the tracker began to doubt their systems, change them, or begin to "interpret" them differently, thereby exponentially compounding the mistakes they are making.

Folks at the bottom have a hard time identifying a bull rally, and by the time they do, they've already bought in at the top because they were too impatient to wait for a pullback. Then they get burned (yet again) compounding their problems, making them even more gun shy.

Just because you have 2 IFTs doesn't mean you should use them. Moving your money around out of frustration without picking specific entry/exit points means you don't have a plan. If you don't have a plan why move your money?

We have lots of really smart folks here in the forum, but let's not assume being smart and having common sense go hand-in-hand. If you don't have a mentor you should find one. If your mentor isn't doing well this year and didn't the year before that (and so on), well then why are they your mentor?

Lastly, there's a huge difference between "buying the dip" in a rally verses "catching a falling knife" in a downtrend. The latter should be avoided...
 
"You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Then who the hell else are you talkin' to? You talkin' to me? Well I'm the only one here. Who the blank do you think you're talking to?"
Click to expand...

I may be at the bottom but I ain't shut up. I'm doing my best to learn. I can't tell you how many books I've read and videos I've watched. Some times I wish I had never wondered what the news lady on the radio was talking about when she said that the DOW was down 59 but the NASDAQ was up 12.

I've been contributing to TSP for over 20 years and my balance ain't too shabby for somebody who has no clue what he's doing. DCA and letting it ride have served me well so far. The reason I decided to try to learn is because I intend to retire in 7 years and I fear out-living my TSP.

This is only my second year on the tracker and I've been at the bottom both years. This year I'm proud to say that I haven't been negative double digits yet. Thats an improvement, right? :o

What is this system you speak of? Just kidding...sort of. I haven't really figured out a system yet. I don't really know how to start. So far Bollinger Bands have given me a clue about entry points but by the time I recognise whats going on the entry has passed me by.

As far as mentors go I have tried several paid services and nothing has clicked for me yet. Divot came on strong for a second but he hasn't updated his blog since July. Ocean has a blog but I forget to go there. JTH - I appreciate your posts and blog along with Tom's commentary and many others who post on the message board. I figure the longer I keep at it and the more I struggle...eventually I'll get a clue...or maybe I won't. ne_nau.gif

Maybe others will chime in. I sure hope so...
 
well i been doing way worse than i thought i would should, but you know what it did it anyway. on purpose, it just didn't work out the way i wanted it to. so what.

i'd talk a bunch of crap about charts and cycles and bands, but it would be just that, crap. i am glad that others spend the time and understand and communicate the observations, i really am.

but i call it like i feel it, and i like to feel it. sure all the reading goes into the decsion making mix, but mostly i just pull the trigger when i feel it move.

getting lucky so far this year. anyone want to feel lucky?
 
KevinD said:
I may be at the bottom but I ain't shut up. I'm doing my best to learn. I can't tell you how many books I've read and videos I've watched. Some times I wish I had never wondered what the news lady on the radio was talking about when she said that the DOW was down 59 but the NASDAQ was up 12.

I've been contributing to TSP for over 20 years and my balance ain't too shabby for somebody who has no clue what he's doing. DCA and letting it ride have served me well so far. The reason I decided to try to learn is because I intend to retire in 7 years and I fear out-living my TSP.

This is only my second year on the tracker and I've been at the bottom both years. This year I'm proud to say that I haven't been negative double digits yet. Thats an improvement, right? :o

What is this system you speak of? Just kidding...sort of. I haven't really figured out a system yet. I don't really know how to start. So far Bollinger Bands have given me a clue about entry points but by the time I recognise whats going on the entry has passed me by.

As far as mentors go I have tried several paid services and nothing has clicked for me yet. Divot came on strong for a second but he hasn't updated his blog since July. Ocean has a blog but I forget to go there. JTH - I appreciate your posts and blog along with Tom's commentary and many others who post on the message board. I figure the longer I keep at it and the more I struggle...eventually I'll get a clue...or maybe I won't. View attachment 10054

Maybe others will chime in. I sure hope so...
Click to expand...

Well, I've been seriously considering following the Sentiment Survey-
not so much that I don't think I could research and judge fairly well, but more of a Microsoft collaboration philosophy where many sources of input have many more sources of information, whose opinions Tom percolates into an output.
With the work scene ramping up into the holidays, it seems a better choice than just turning a blind eye, guessing with snapshots of info, or using the set it and forget it method.
We shall see.
 
I too learned the hard way, I'm no trader! So I did the opposite and just stopped trading entirely.

I chose my risk level, about 1/3rd. That third I spread between the C&S funds, avoiding the "I" as it really cost me once.

My contributions go into the G-fund. Having I set my percentages, I rebalance every pay period. If prices are rising I will be selling. If prices are falling I will be buying. "Buy low sell high" automatically in small increments.

In the '08-'09 crash I bought a lot of shares this way as their value kept decreasing. It was hard, brother! But in Mar '09 when we began to climb, I rose about half-again as fast as I had fallen because I had so many more shares.

This strategy required only one difficult decision, that of initial risk tolerance (1/3 in my case). It will never place you in the top decile but you will never be in the bottom decile either. You should wind up somewhere in the middle. This is a good place to be, consistently. Your standard deviation will be low.

Over the long haul you will see that the top trackers vary. No one gets it right consistently. Has anyone made the top ten three years in a row? I've been here since '05 and can't remember seeing it. For the above reasons I stopped submitting my figures and left the tracker. I used to be there under the name Dave M which you will see if you go back far enough.
 
Welcome back Dave M, I'm no ball of fire myself, but I retired in January and am not as radical with my investments as when I was contributing.
Best of luck Buddy!:D
 
In the end it's all capital preservation. Some will take big risks with money as they may have longer time horizons or risk tolerance. The tracker is what it is. There's no reason for someone 60 years old to try shooting the lights out every month with the risk of losing 5% in one week.

Example: In cycling, the younger, less experienced riders tend to be more aggressive on the turns and downhills because they've never slipped on gravel or locked up their brakes at 45mph before. The older guys (or even experienced guys) keep their hands on the brakes but know that they won't crash from being too aggressive.

Though I will say this about the tracker. I hope the guys in the top 10 really did do as good as the tracker shows because those are some darn good numbers. People pay hedge funds millions for returns like that and you guys are putting up month after month without high frequency trading platforms, only 2 trades a month, and COB prices.
 
The tracker is very limited in what information it conveys as it only tracks returns for one year and then we start all over again. I've studied the last three years worth and very few maintain their positions from year to year. Even professionals have bad years. Such is the market.
 
JTH said:
These are just a few observations, I'm sure some of you have a few of your own to add. Most folks here know I've spent a long time in the bottom of the tracker, but nevertheless, these are some things I felt I should share with the forum.

I've seen folks who use to post all the time, spouting off this and that. When they make it to the bottom of the tracker, they suddenly disappear?

I've learned from experience when you're at the bottom of the tracker your judgment can be severely impaired because your level of risk tolerance goes down.

Folks at the bottom of the tracker began to doubt their systems, change them, or begin to "interpret" them differently, thereby exponentially compounding the mistakes they are making.

Folks at the bottom have a hard time identifying a bull rally, and by the time they do, they've already bought in at the top because they were too impatient to wait for a pullback. Then they get burned (yet again) compounding their problems, making them even more gun shy.

Just because you have 2 IFTs doesn't mean you should use them. Moving your money around out of frustration without picking specific entry/exit points means you don't have a plan. If you don't have a plan why move your money?

We have lots of really smart folks here in the forum, but let's not assume being smart and having common sense go hand-in-hand. If you don't have a mentor you should find one. If your mentor isn't doing well this year and didn't the year before that (and so on), well then why are they your mentor?

Lastly, there's a huge difference between "buying the dip" in a rally verses "catching a falling knife" in a downtrend. The latter should be avoided...
Click to expand...

Bump (you know who you are)
 
Lastly, there's a huge difference between "buying the dip" in a rally verses "catching a falling knife" in a downtrend. The latter should be avoided...
Click to expand...

I'm dying LMAO....I never move my own account the way I move the tracker....I can't trust myself!!!!!!


 
I am waiting patiently for the bounce back, and will not bail out just because I get back to even. Its a long road and I'm nowhere near retirement, so if I don't sell high I'm not going to sell.

The lesson I learned last year is that its far more painfull to jump out a the bottom and watch the market run up and the party rage on from the outside than to ride one of these corrections down.

I've learned how to spot topping patterns and I'm trying to start executing better rather than noting the top in hindsight. I've also learned some bottoming patterns, and if I'd done the right thing and bailed (or stayed out in this case) today would actually have been my buy-in day. So, if that hunch is wrong or if its right, it doesn't matter because it would be a lower buy-in. The important thing is that I'm buckled in for the next run up.

A 7% down month can be easily erased by a 7% up month. We can do very well with only 4-8 IFTs per year. Over time, I will see the turning points more quickly. But, I continue to read all I can here because a wide array of opinions backed by good reasoning provides a great education.
 
Listen Hotshots, anybody can fall to the bottom of the tracker. The only thing is that if you were a know it all then it hurts really bad because you thought you were right and lost. There is nothing to be ashamed of even the Professionals do the same thing and they have College degrees and years of experience. So don't feel so bad, it happens and you have to take it like a man (or Woman) and learn from the experience, we've all been there and may be again because the Market is one tough SOB to second guess. If it was easy we would all be rich!
 
I'm working my way down...

It makes it easy to find yourself in the AutoTracker when you are in the top page or the bottom page. Yeah, that's the ticket...:p
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
So your tracker isn't real? Am I doing something wrong because mine matches my moves in TSP... Did I miss something here?
Click to expand...
I can't be too aggressive with all my money.....I have two accounts (Civ & Mil) so I balance them so I'm not too exposed.
 
That's the spirit, I'm glad to see we haven't lost our sense of humor (might have lost everything else)
 
I'm doing it my way also and look where it has gotten me. :D

[TABLE="width: 278"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: #cccccc"]315
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 86, bgcolor: #cccccc"]shitepoke
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, bgcolor: #cccccc"]0.70%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, bgcolor: #cccccc"]-0.07%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffff99"]316
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #ffff99"]prometheus
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]0.69%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]-0.11%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: #cccccc"]317
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: #cccccc"]flynaz
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]0.68%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]-0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffff99"]318
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #ffff99"]rod4TSP
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]0.67%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]-0.08%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: #cccccc"]319
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: #cccccc"]Clue *
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]0.64%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]-0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #e46d0a"]320
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: #e46d0a"]nasa1974
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e46d0a"]0.64%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e46d0a"]-0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: #cccccc"]321
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: #cccccc"]Babygirl07 *
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]0.63%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]0.09%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffff99"]322
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #ffff99"]konakathy
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]0.62%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]-0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: #cccccc"]323
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: #cccccc"]Unmanned
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]0.62%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cccccc"]-0.08%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffff99"]324
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #ffff99"]knowskill
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]0.61%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #ffff99"]-0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
Breakdowns or a double bottom?
Replies
0
Views
217
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
April Contest in Progress
Replies
4
Views
349
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
Extended Warranties?
Replies
5
Views
369
nasa1974
nasa1974
tsptalk
May 2025 AutoTracker Winners!
Replies
1
Views
442
nasa1974
nasa1974
TommyIV
Sole Top-50 Member Moving into the G-Fund Today
Replies
0
Views
235
TommyIV
TommyIV
Back
Top