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Bottom Feeders on the tracker
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
jimijr
Member
I too learned the hard way, I'm no trader! So I did the opposite and just stopped trading entirely.
I chose my risk level, about 1/3rd. That third I spread between the C&S funds, avoiding the "I" as it really cost me once.
My contributions go into the G-fund. Having I set my percentages, I rebalance every pay period. If prices are rising I will be selling. If prices are falling I will be buying. "Buy low sell high" automatically in small increments.
In the '08-'09 crash I bought a lot of shares this way as their value kept decreasing. It was hard, brother! But in Mar '09 when we began to climb, I rose about half-again as fast as I had fallen because I had so many more shares.
This strategy required only one difficult decision, that of initial risk tolerance (1/3 in my case). It will never place you in the top decile but you will never be in the bottom decile either. You should wind up somewhere in the middle. This is a good place to be, consistently. Your standard deviation will be low.
Over the long haul you will see that the top trackers vary. No one gets it right consistently. Has anyone made the top ten three years in a row? I've been here since '05 and can't remember seeing it. For the above reasons I stopped submitting my figures and left the tracker. I used to be there under the name Dave M which you will see if you go back far enough.
I chose my risk level, about 1/3rd. That third I spread between the C&S funds, avoiding the "I" as it really cost me once.
My contributions go into the G-fund. Having I set my percentages, I rebalance every pay period. If prices are rising I will be selling. If prices are falling I will be buying. "Buy low sell high" automatically in small increments.
In the '08-'09 crash I bought a lot of shares this way as their value kept decreasing. It was hard, brother! But in Mar '09 when we began to climb, I rose about half-again as fast as I had fallen because I had so many more shares.
This strategy required only one difficult decision, that of initial risk tolerance (1/3 in my case). It will never place you in the top decile but you will never be in the bottom decile either. You should wind up somewhere in the middle. This is a good place to be, consistently. Your standard deviation will be low.
Over the long haul you will see that the top trackers vary. No one gets it right consistently. Has anyone made the top ten three years in a row? I've been here since '05 and can't remember seeing it. For the above reasons I stopped submitting my figures and left the tracker. I used to be there under the name Dave M which you will see if you go back far enough.
crws
Active member
I may be at the bottom but I ain't shut up. I'm doing my best to learn. I can't tell you how many books I've read and videos I've watched. Some times I wish I had never wondered what the news lady on the radio was talking about when she said that the DOW was down 59 but the NASDAQ was up 12.
I've been contributing to TSP for over 20 years and my balance ain't too shabby for somebody who has no clue what he's doing. DCA and letting it ride have served me well so far. The reason I decided to try to learn is because I intend to retire in 7 years and I fear out-living my TSP.
This is only my second year on the tracker and I've been at the bottom both years. This year I'm proud to say that I haven't been negative double digits yet. Thats an improvement, right?
What is this system you speak of? Just kidding...sort of. I haven't really figured out a system yet. I don't really know how to start. So far Bollinger Bands have given me a clue about entry points but by the time I recognise whats going on the entry has passed me by.
As far as mentors go I have tried several paid services and nothing has clicked for me yet. Divot came on strong for a second but he hasn't updated his blog since July. Ocean has a blog but I forget to go there. JTH - I appreciate your posts and blog along with Tom's commentary and many others who post on the message board. I figure the longer I keep at it and the more I struggle...eventually I'll get a clue...or maybe I won't. View attachment 10054
Maybe others will chime in. I sure hope so...
Well, I've been seriously considering following the Sentiment Survey-
not so much that I don't think I could research and judge fairly well, but more of a Microsoft collaboration philosophy where many sources of input have many more sources of information, whose opinions Tom percolates into an output.
With the work scene ramping up into the holidays, it seems a better choice than just turning a blind eye, guessing with snapshots of info, or using the set it and forget it method.
We shall see.
burrocrat
Well-known member
well i been doing way worse than i thought i would should, but you know what it did it anyway. on purpose, it just didn't work out the way i wanted it to. so what.
i'd talk a bunch of crap about charts and cycles and bands, but it would be just that, crap. i am glad that others spend the time and understand and communicate the observations, i really am.
but i call it like i feel it, and i like to feel it. sure all the reading goes into the decsion making mix, but mostly i just pull the trigger when i feel it move.
getting lucky so far this year. anyone want to feel lucky?
i'd talk a bunch of crap about charts and cycles and bands, but it would be just that, crap. i am glad that others spend the time and understand and communicate the observations, i really am.
but i call it like i feel it, and i like to feel it. sure all the reading goes into the decsion making mix, but mostly i just pull the trigger when i feel it move.
getting lucky so far this year. anyone want to feel lucky?
KevinD
Well-known member
I may be at the bottom but I ain't shut up. I'm doing my best to learn. I can't tell you how many books I've read and videos I've watched. Some times I wish I had never wondered what the news lady on the radio was talking about when she said that the DOW was down 59 but the NASDAQ was up 12.
I've been contributing to TSP for over 20 years and my balance ain't too shabby for somebody who has no clue what he's doing. DCA and letting it ride have served me well so far. The reason I decided to try to learn is because I intend to retire in 7 years and I fear out-living my TSP.
This is only my second year on the tracker and I've been at the bottom both years. This year I'm proud to say that I haven't been negative double digits yet. Thats an improvement, right?
What is this system you speak of? Just kidding...sort of. I haven't really figured out a system yet. I don't really know how to start. So far Bollinger Bands have given me a clue about entry points but by the time I recognise whats going on the entry has passed me by.
As far as mentors go I have tried several paid services and nothing has clicked for me yet. Divot came on strong for a second but he hasn't updated his blog since July. Ocean has a blog but I forget to go there. JTH - I appreciate your posts and blog along with Tom's commentary and many others who post on the message board. I figure the longer I keep at it and the more I struggle...eventually I'll get a clue...or maybe I won't.
Maybe others will chime in. I sure hope so...
JTH
Well-known member
These are just a few observations, I'm sure some of you have a few of your own to add. Most folks here know I've spent a long time in the bottom of the tracker, but nevertheless, these are some things I felt I should share with the forum.
I've seen folks who use to post all the time, spouting off this and that. When they make it to the bottom of the tracker, they suddenly disappear?
I've learned from experience when you're at the bottom of the tracker your judgment can be severely impaired because your level of risk tolerance goes down.
Folks at the bottom of the tracker began to doubt their systems, change them, or begin to "interpret" them differently, thereby exponentially compounding the mistakes they are making.
Folks at the bottom have a hard time identifying a bull rally, and by the time they do, they've already bought in at the top because they were too impatient to wait for a pullback. Then they get burned (yet again) compounding their problems, making them even more gun shy.
Just because you have 2 IFTs doesn't mean you should use them. Moving your money around out of frustration without picking specific entry/exit points means you don't have a plan. If you don't have a plan why move your money?
We have lots of really smart folks here in the forum, but let's not assume being smart and having common sense go hand-in-hand. If you don't have a mentor you should find one. If your mentor isn't doing well this year and didn't the year before that (and so on), well then why are they your mentor?
Lastly, there's a huge difference between "buying the dip" in a rally verses "catching a falling knife" in a downtrend. The latter should be avoided...
I've seen folks who use to post all the time, spouting off this and that. When they make it to the bottom of the tracker, they suddenly disappear?
I've learned from experience when you're at the bottom of the tracker your judgment can be severely impaired because your level of risk tolerance goes down.
Folks at the bottom of the tracker began to doubt their systems, change them, or begin to "interpret" them differently, thereby exponentially compounding the mistakes they are making.
Folks at the bottom have a hard time identifying a bull rally, and by the time they do, they've already bought in at the top because they were too impatient to wait for a pullback. Then they get burned (yet again) compounding their problems, making them even more gun shy.
Just because you have 2 IFTs doesn't mean you should use them. Moving your money around out of frustration without picking specific entry/exit points means you don't have a plan. If you don't have a plan why move your money?
We have lots of really smart folks here in the forum, but let's not assume being smart and having common sense go hand-in-hand. If you don't have a mentor you should find one. If your mentor isn't doing well this year and didn't the year before that (and so on), well then why are they your mentor?
Lastly, there's a huge difference between "buying the dip" in a rally verses "catching a falling knife" in a downtrend. The latter should be avoided...