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Boghies Account Talk
- Thread starter Boghie
- Start date
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...
Uh, yup...
I should spend far more time in silence than with my fly catcher open:nuts:
Uh, yup...
I should spend far more time in silence than with my fly catcher open:nuts:
Boghie
Well-known member
Adding Some Risk/Variance to Allocation
My three allocation models are:
Aggressive: 2% G, 15% F, 48% C, 19% S, 16% I Expected Return: 6%, Expected Variance: 9%
Normal: 12% G, 22% F, 39% C, 15% S, 12% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 8%
Conservative: 12% G, 27% F, 37% C, 13% S, 11% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%
The market is in short term flux, but seems to be centering - not falling.
My current allocation is more conservative than my 'Conservative' allocation, but not by much:
42% G, 0% F, 36% C, 10% S, 12% I Expected Return: 4%, Expected Variance: 6%
Basically, I believe the 'F Fund' is in a bubble where either the FED or our esteemed politicians can pick at it. Therefore, I had merged the F and G together while simultaneously hiding a tiny bit of the US equities in cash.
I am going to increase my variance a little bit and overweight the International Big Wig Boyz a bit. My new allocation is:
Normalish: 32% G, 0% F, 40% C, 12% S, 16% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%
Like I said, don't like the bubbly F, like the C, the S seems overextended, and the I oversold. Thus, the dump of the F, the bump of C, the small sell of S, and the more substantial bump of I. All that 'G Fund' holdings gives me nothing but purchasing power. It holds back the variance and the potential return. But, it is summer after all!!!:blink:
Happy hunting...
My three allocation models are:
Aggressive: 2% G, 15% F, 48% C, 19% S, 16% I Expected Return: 6%, Expected Variance: 9%
Normal: 12% G, 22% F, 39% C, 15% S, 12% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 8%
Conservative: 12% G, 27% F, 37% C, 13% S, 11% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%
The market is in short term flux, but seems to be centering - not falling.
My current allocation is more conservative than my 'Conservative' allocation, but not by much:
42% G, 0% F, 36% C, 10% S, 12% I Expected Return: 4%, Expected Variance: 6%
Basically, I believe the 'F Fund' is in a bubble where either the FED or our esteemed politicians can pick at it. Therefore, I had merged the F and G together while simultaneously hiding a tiny bit of the US equities in cash.
I am going to increase my variance a little bit and overweight the International Big Wig Boyz a bit. My new allocation is:
Normalish: 32% G, 0% F, 40% C, 12% S, 16% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%
Like I said, don't like the bubbly F, like the C, the S seems overextended, and the I oversold. Thus, the dump of the F, the bump of C, the small sell of S, and the more substantial bump of I. All that 'G Fund' holdings gives me nothing but purchasing power. It holds back the variance and the potential return. But, it is summer after all!!!:blink:
Happy hunting...
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column
Detroit runined themselves by their property taxes trying to keep trash dump schools open. People who were middle class got tired of busing their kids to these schools - they just picked up and moved somewhere else. Economics will bring back reality - cut back on all the welfare. I'm actually pleased to see reality setting in.
Detroit runined themselves by their property taxes trying to keep trash dump schools open. People who were middle class got tired of busing their kids to these schools - they just picked up and moved somewhere else. Economics will bring back reality - cut back on all the welfare. I'm actually pleased to see reality setting in.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column
I have just zeroed out the affect of the Sequester...
Upon the new Fiscal Year - and the end of this cr@ppy Sequester - I will:
This only works because my car payment allotment is no longer necessary (my car account has enough to pay it off right now) and my Schwab allotment is not mandatory for any reason. The ability to make changes such as these will end soon. And, remember, the IRS and - in my case - the California Franchise Tax Board are not friendly people. In my case they want their 33%. For that I get lousy roads, lousy schools, high sales taxes, internet sales taxes, constant State deficits, and ridiculous Federal deficits even in periods of record Federal revenue. Oh well...
I have just zeroed out the affect of the Sequester...
- Increase withholdings to 4
- Stop both my allotments (car and Schwab)
Upon the new Fiscal Year - and the end of this cr@ppy Sequester - I will:
- Zero out my withholdings and pay an additional amount per pay period to compensate for the Sequester period
- Not reestablish my allotments till my tax burden is paid off
This only works because my car payment allotment is no longer necessary (my car account has enough to pay it off right now) and my Schwab allotment is not mandatory for any reason. The ability to make changes such as these will end soon. And, remember, the IRS and - in my case - the California Franchise Tax Board are not friendly people. In my case they want their 33%. For that I get lousy roads, lousy schools, high sales taxes, internet sales taxes, constant State deficits, and ridiculous Federal deficits even in periods of record Federal revenue. Oh well...
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column
Re(1): 'Excellent Time Photo Essay of Revolutionary War Portraits', Via Meadia, Walter Russell Mead
Re(2): 'Faces of the American Revolution', Time Magazine, Elizabeth D. Herman
An amazing photo essay. Any of you want to see actual 'photos' of actual Revolutionary War Veterans? Yup, thought so...
By the way, the Revolutionary War was America's first '4th Turning'. 80 years later we survived America's second '4th Turning' - the Civil War. 80 years after the second '4th Turning' we survived America's third '4th Turning' - the Second World War. 80 years after the beginning of the third '4th Turning' (a turning is one generation - or about 20 years) would be 2009. We are either in the middle of a '4th Turning' - based on the epoch setting 9/11 attacks - or at the beginning of one - based on the epoch setting financial crash. My guess is we are in the middle. And the twenty years or so comprising a '4th Turning' are times of war, financial collapse, and complete social change. We seem to be living in interesting times!!!
Re(1): 'Excellent Time Photo Essay of Revolutionary War Portraits', Via Meadia, Walter Russell Mead
Re(2): 'Faces of the American Revolution', Time Magazine, Elizabeth D. Herman
An amazing photo essay. Any of you want to see actual 'photos' of actual Revolutionary War Veterans? Yup, thought so...
By the way, the Revolutionary War was America's first '4th Turning'. 80 years later we survived America's second '4th Turning' - the Civil War. 80 years after the second '4th Turning' we survived America's third '4th Turning' - the Second World War. 80 years after the beginning of the third '4th Turning' (a turning is one generation - or about 20 years) would be 2009. We are either in the middle of a '4th Turning' - based on the epoch setting 9/11 attacks - or at the beginning of one - based on the epoch setting financial crash. My guess is we are in the middle. And the twenty years or so comprising a '4th Turning' are times of war, financial collapse, and complete social change. We seem to be living in interesting times!!!
alevin
Well-known member
Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column
Been tracking development of 4th Turning since sometime in early 00's, when I first read the book. I still don't know if 9/11 was the start or if the Great Recession was the start, personally. but yes, only halfway through at best-agreed. It gets worse from here and its already very bad, based on family member situations and outlooks for probable future furloughs (at best).
Thanks for the photo journalism. wonderful. Have an ancestor-participant from that era, not an official DAR but could be. What matters more at this point is not what the ancestor helped make happen, but what we do today with the conditions we're living through now. Still-the ones from that era serve as signposts for the changes in our society since then.
Been tracking development of 4th Turning since sometime in early 00's, when I first read the book. I still don't know if 9/11 was the start or if the Great Recession was the start, personally. but yes, only halfway through at best-agreed. It gets worse from here and its already very bad, based on family member situations and outlooks for probable future furloughs (at best).
Thanks for the photo journalism. wonderful. Have an ancestor-participant from that era, not an official DAR but could be. What matters more at this point is not what the ancestor helped make happen, but what we do today with the conditions we're living through now. Still-the ones from that era serve as signposts for the changes in our society since then.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column
Alvin, glad you liked the photo essay. I thought it was awesome we could actually see a life image of Revolutionary War soldiers. Awesome...
On the 4th Turning, I don't know if it gets worse. Maybe a full scale war where we go against a 1st World enemy. Maybe a shadowy terror conflict incorporating more dangerous weapons. Maybe an American civil war. Who knows, but it will not come out of the blue. We will see it because it will fly too slow to be a Black Swan.
Alvin, glad you liked the photo essay. I thought it was awesome we could actually see a life image of Revolutionary War soldiers. Awesome...
On the 4th Turning, I don't know if it gets worse. Maybe a full scale war where we go against a 1st World enemy. Maybe a shadowy terror conflict incorporating more dangerous weapons. Maybe an American civil war. Who knows, but it will not come out of the blue. We will see it because it will fly too slow to be a Black Swan.
Boghie
Well-known member
Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
How to take advantage of 2.125% 'G Fund' returns when there is no risk???
So,
Now, I hope Quicken does all the Covariance and Fat Tail analysis stuff in its risk analysis. It is more than cloudy on that topic. Especially with respect to Fat Tail stuff. I am reading Peter Bernstein's 'Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk' which is recommended by lots of folks I respect. I recommend it. It is a rather basic overview of risk. I have just cleared the Markowitz, von Neumann and Morgenstern chapters covering game theory and efficient portfolios. However, I don't think a circa 1998 book will really discuss Fat Tail investing. I shall see.
But back to the discussion...
The nicest thing I know - to separate it from the things I know I don't know and the things I don't know I don't know - is that Quicken uses the following for Cash holdings in an allocation:
So, why not use 'cash' as a 0 risk bond - especially when bonds are still reverting to the mean. And, we have to go out to 30 years to get the return of the G Fund...
How to take advantage of 2.125% 'G Fund' returns when there is no risk???
- I don't know what I am doing, so if I sound smart it is because I am about ready to catastrophically fail.
- Does one take advantage of a great cash return by investing in cash...
- Or, by using it to hedge high return/high risk plays...
So,
G Fund: 22% We have gone from 1.25% to 2.125%+ in a month.
F Fund: 0% Dummies to jog on, Doggies to dog on...
C Fund: 42% Holding pretty steady in my allocation
S Fund: 18% Gimme some Alpha baby
I Fund: 18% Probably the mistake in this allocation, but who knows...
Average Return: 6% - Gained a point from my original allocation.
Average Risk: 8% - Stayed the same!!!
F Fund: 0% Dummies to jog on, Doggies to dog on...
C Fund: 42% Holding pretty steady in my allocation
S Fund: 18% Gimme some Alpha baby
I Fund: 18% Probably the mistake in this allocation, but who knows...
Average Return: 6% - Gained a point from my original allocation.
Average Risk: 8% - Stayed the same!!!
Now, I hope Quicken does all the Covariance and Fat Tail analysis stuff in its risk analysis. It is more than cloudy on that topic. Especially with respect to Fat Tail stuff. I am reading Peter Bernstein's 'Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk' which is recommended by lots of folks I respect. I recommend it. It is a rather basic overview of risk. I have just cleared the Markowitz, von Neumann and Morgenstern chapters covering game theory and efficient portfolios. However, I don't think a circa 1998 book will really discuss Fat Tail investing. I shall see.
But back to the discussion...
The nicest thing I know - to separate it from the things I know I don't know and the things I don't know I don't know - is that Quicken uses the following for Cash holdings in an allocation:
Average Return: 0.1%
Average Risk: 0.9%
Well, with the 'G Fund' we have:Average Risk: 0.9%
Average Return: 2.125%
Average Risk: 0.9% - My guess is that this variance comes from very low risk Treasuries, not cash. Ours should be 0% - but we do have politicians!!!
Average Risk: 0.9% - My guess is that this variance comes from very low risk Treasuries, not cash. Ours should be 0% - but we do have politicians!!!
So, why not use 'cash' as a 0 risk bond - especially when bonds are still reverting to the mean. And, we have to go out to 30 years to get the return of the G Fund...
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
Howdy Folks,
Gotta question: Does anybody know of a site (source) where I can grab the highest and lowest Daily Returns of the S&P500? I could deal with attaining all the Daily Returns (by percentage) and scrubbing the data myself. Whenever I Google I seem to get the Top and Bottom 10. Wikipedia shows the Top and Bottom 20. But, two Standard Deviations is the Top and Bottom 38 - and I am more interested in the turns so I probably need a bit wider range.
What I did notice based on a few minutes of intense scrutiny of the Top/Bottom 20 in Wikipedia is that most of the big gain days fall within a week of big down days. Lots of time the next day. However, those October, November, and December 2008 big up days were head fakes that got washed out by crashing days soon after. That is why I want more data.
Personally, I don't believe in a full market timing strategy (I am way too dumb) - but I do seem to be able to track on the large deviations. I would like to see if the data can be managed at the outliers...
Howdy Folks,
Gotta question: Does anybody know of a site (source) where I can grab the highest and lowest Daily Returns of the S&P500? I could deal with attaining all the Daily Returns (by percentage) and scrubbing the data myself. Whenever I Google I seem to get the Top and Bottom 10. Wikipedia shows the Top and Bottom 20. But, two Standard Deviations is the Top and Bottom 38 - and I am more interested in the turns so I probably need a bit wider range.
What I did notice based on a few minutes of intense scrutiny of the Top/Bottom 20 in Wikipedia is that most of the big gain days fall within a week of big down days. Lots of time the next day. However, those October, November, and December 2008 big up days were head fakes that got washed out by crashing days soon after. That is why I want more data.
Personally, I don't believe in a full market timing strategy (I am way too dumb) - but I do seem to be able to track on the large deviations. I would like to see if the data can be managed at the outliers...
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
Market moving nowhere.
Might be at an inflection point.
Going to go up!!! I don't know.
Going to go down!!! I don't know.
But, since my crystal ball is always cloudy I will play it both ways.
Market moving nowhere.
Might be at an inflection point.
Going to go up!!! I don't know.
Going to go down!!! I don't know.
But, since my crystal ball is always cloudy I will play it both ways.
G: 42%
F: 0%
C: 36%
S: 10%
I: 12%
Expected Return: 4%
Expected Risk: 6%
F: 0%
C: 36%
S: 10%
I: 12%
Expected Return: 4%
Expected Risk: 6%
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
Kinda looking like lots of Black Swans are taking flight...
However, they - or, most - of them are likely to be pigeons...
Currently, I am only 58% in equities and 42% in that super safe 'G Fund'. Thinking about reversing that - but I really don't want to waste an IFT on a bunch of birds taking flight...
Kinda looking like lots of Black Swans are taking flight...
However, they - or, most - of them are likely to be pigeons...
Currently, I am only 58% in equities and 42% in that super safe 'G Fund'. Thinking about reversing that - but I really don't want to waste an IFT on a bunch of birds taking flight...
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
Boghie,
I have enjoyed your market perspective and your thread came highly recommended as a must read... I wasn't disappointed.
Good luck with your investments!!
-RMI
Boghie,
I have enjoyed your market perspective and your thread came highly recommended as a must read... I wasn't disappointed.
Good luck with your investments!!
-RMI
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
Pensions are Craptastic!!!!
Watch as the citizens of New York State rise up and support the pensioners!!!
Pensions are Craptastic!!!!
Watch as the citizens of New York State rise up and support the pensioners!!!
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
Re(1): 'Where Have You Gone, Admiral Ackbar?', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
Always read Richard Fernandez, 'The Belmont Club'.
Choppy writing for Fernandez - bet WELL worth the read...
Re(1): 'Where Have You Gone, Admiral Ackbar?', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
Always read Richard Fernandez, 'The Belmont Club'.
Choppy writing for Fernandez - bet WELL worth the read...
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk
Black Swans are aflight...
And, September/October are not the best months to be fully invested...
Black Swans are aflight...
And, September/October are not the best months to be fully invested...
- G: 60% - Look at that awesome return
- F: 0% - Look at that awesome return
- C: 20%
- S: 10%
- I: 10%
Boghie
Well-known member
Movin' to Europe...
Black Swans are aflight, but mostly in the Gubmint sector of 'Merica. Europe and Japan should be good to go...
Black Swans are aflight, but mostly in the Gubmint sector of 'Merica. Europe and Japan should be good to go...
- G: 45% - Took 15% out of the collateral the Treasury is using to 'fund' the gubmint
- F: 0% - Look at that awesome return
- C: 23%
- S: 12%
- I: 20% - Movin' away from the USA!!!
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