Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Re: Flight to Safety

Looks like a youngish GS09
Who never increases in grade or step
But, invests 10% in his/her TSP and gets the 5% match
And, gets his/her marvelous FERS Alpo Meal Deal Pension Plan

Is Fabulously Wealthy at retirement. That guy/gal will get Obama's Wealth Tax

 

[Boghie]

Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Howdy Folks...

My SWAG system of no system smells kinda bad. Market feels a bit toppy.

G: 70%
F: 0%
C: 30%
S: 0%
I: 0%

Expected Return: 2%
Expected Risk: 4%​

That should give me Amoeba Level Returns.

We have been on a bullish tear for quite some time. I chewed on lots of that fat. Yummy. But, it feels kinda extended and kinda slow at this time. And, we have Black Swans flying all over the place with a President in charge who has an ideological bent toward chaos and uncertainty theories. With the normal summer swoon season upon us and ObamaCare and tax increases and weak employment and the Eurotrash and the Axis of Evil and... I think I will not get greedy and accept my 5+% return YtoD, sit out the summer (if things move as planned) and await Santa...

Remember, however, I have NO system. I do not know what I am doing. So, newbies - don't look here. I have been underperforming the market for the last three years!!!

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Re(1): 'Saturday Reads: Easy Money', American Interest - Via Meadia, Walter Russell Mead

Reinhart is a doomer, but...

Reinhart: No doubt, pensions are screwed. Governments have a lot of leverage on what kinds of assets pension funds hold. In France, for example, public pension funds have shifted money from shares (on the stock market) to government bonds. Not because their returns are great, but because it is more expedient for the government. Pension funds, domestic banks and insurance companies are the most captive audiences, because governments can just change the rules of the game.

there sure is an awful lot of smoke out there. Anyone around here remember how 'Clinton the Beneficent' - how shall I say this and stay on this Message Board - uh, reduced the Social Security benefits for the middle class (and the rich, damn them!!!!). Oh, that's right, the Great One I initiated income tax on Social Security benefits if your gross take home is greater than a corpulent, rich Romneynite takings of $34,000 for a married couple. Wealth just pores out of oldsters yanking $34K from the mouths of the poor and disadvantaged. Tax em to the limit. That is how the game is played folks. They want your money and they don't want to wait for it. Expect them to jigger pensions, benefits, and annuities.

Anyone counting on the promises of politicians twenty years ago being honored by politicians twenty years from now is in trouble...

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Anyone counting on the promises of politicians twenty years ago being honored by politicians twenty years from now is in trouble...

What are you saying Boghie? I can't trust future politicians to not tax my RothIRA when I go to withdraw my money 30 years from now? I can't possible see them telling poor people it ain't fair that I got 2 million saved up in a RothIRA that ain't taxed and changing the rules on me..... :suspicious:

 

[99percent]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

What are you saying Boghie? I can't trust future politicians to not tax my RothIRA when I go to withdraw my money 30 years from now? I can't possible see them telling poor people it ain't fair that I got 2 million saved up in a RothIRA that ain't taxed and changing the rules on me..... :suspicious:

Nah, never happen...

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

What are you saying Boghie? I can't trust future politicians to not tax my RothIRA when I go to withdraw my money 30 years from now? I can't possible see them telling poor people it ain't fair that I got 2 million saved up in a RothIRA that ain't taxed and changing the rules on me..... :suspicious:

Far more likely the politicians, courts, and future voters will slam your pension. It will take someone like 'The One' and something like Blue Model Politics to make a grab at personal accounts, but it is much easier to make a grab at the budget line items that 'fund' retirements.

99%, sorry... Already happened... You cannot count on ignit old failed lawyers managing your money for you... They will demagogue your savings and ratchet up the yammering of the 99% who didn't save anything...

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Market smells awful. But I think I will take a contrarian view and add a couple (that is, double) of points to my expected annual return. Also, adding two points to risk. But, risk is a wonderful thing. It actually means the standard deviation in both the positive and negative directions. We all can guess which way we want it to go:

Still, a very conservative allocation. Why am I getting back in May? Because, it could be a 2009 Summer and because my expected return was less then miniscule. But, then again, my new return is tiny.

G: 42%
F: 0%
C: 36%
S: 10%
I: 12%

Expected Return: 4%
Expected Risk: 6%
​

I wish I had my 'The Lies About Money' book handy. I could have matched my mood to one of the forty allocations. All in all though, I think having 42% ready to invest in a summer swoon is good enough. And, having 58% working in the market if it doesn't swoon is good enough.

I just hate buying on good days though. Yuk. But, if not now, when??? If I keep sticking with overly conservative allocations I'll have to rename my OTL team to "Three Angry Inches". Me, Amoeba, and who else volunteers:cheesy:.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Market smells awful. But I think I will take a contrarian view and add a couple (that is, double) of points to my expected annual return. Also, adding two points to risk. But, risk is a wonderful thing. It actually means the standard deviation in both the positive and negative directions. We all can guess which way we want it to go:

Still, a very conservative allocation. Why am I getting back in May? Because, it could be a 2009 Summer and because my expected return was less then miniscule. But, then again, my new return is tiny.

G: 42%
F: 0%
C: 36%
S: 10%
I: 12%

Expected Return: 4%
Expected Risk: 6%
​

I wish I had my 'The Lies About Money' book handy. I could have matched my mood to one of the forty allocations. All in all though, I think having 42% ready to invest in a summer swoon is good enough. And, having 58% working in the market if it doesn't swoon is good enough.

I just hate buying on good days though. Yuk. But, if not now, when??? If I keep sticking with overly conservative allocations I'll have to rename my OTL team to "Three Angry Inches". Me, Amoeba, and who else volunteers:cheesy:.

 

[Cactus]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

I just hate buying on good days though. Yuk. But, if not now, when???

Why not on the potential Monday pullback? Today is too hot to buy in. Oh well, too late now and going contrarian to my thinking tends to work out better anyways.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Why not on the potential Monday pullback? Today is too hot to buy in. Oh well, too late now and going contrarian to my thinking tends to work out better anyways.

As I've gotten older my brain moves slower. And, its kinda not worth playing around for a half point 'correction'. If I wait for five or ten correction points (like I have been) I could be waiting a very long time. My allocation did not give me enough gain last month. I can accept more risk than where I was at. If everything goes as it seems today I'll be sitting at about a YTD of 7%. The previous allocation would have barely budged with a 10% correction (maybe 3% or so). The current one will lose me another couple of points or so. Both allocations should leave me positive if I'm too slow or bull headed to get out of a market at the beginning of a correction.

My new allocation gives me a lot more upside. Well, maybe not a lot. But, lots more!!!:suspicious:

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Re(1): "Hezbollah’s Challenge", The Belmont Club, John Fernandez

Red Lines crossed, need to spend assets locally...

The President was never prepared to be tough, only sound tough. He cut the military’s budget. Locked the ground forces away in Afghanistan. He left himself without a gun in a machine-gun fight. So what was he doing drawing ‘Red Lines’?

Fernandez asks the right question regarding our forces stationed in the action theater.

Why are they in a land locked peripheral failed state. They cannot be moved. They are locked in place. They are as ineffective as our troops in Germany.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Why not on the potential Monday pullback? Today is too hot to buy in. Oh well, too late now and going contrarian to my thinking tends to work out better anyways.

Wasn't worried about a half point Cactus...
But, tomorrow is looking to be more significant...

If this is Israel's initial strike toward taking an eastern airfield from Syria to bomb Iran's nuke facilities than my 30% move back into equities wasn't such a good idea. Yowser. It felt like there were Black Swans alight - and there were. Now, I just have to wait it out. But, I still have 40% sitting in cash that I could sorta DCA in with...

 

[Cactus]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Ouch -- think this might start our long awaited for correction?

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Ouch -- think this might start our long awaited for correction?

Maybe...

It will blow over if the Israelis are just bombing Hezbollah. I mean, who cares if Hezbollah freedom fighters get wiped out. Better for the civilized world. Maybe some yelling and screaming - and some behind-the-scenes backslapping. I don't think violence in Syria will move the market. There is violence in Syria.

If, however, Israel takes an eastern airfield all bets are off. They can handle Iran from there and thanks to our Black Swan President we can honestly portray America as impotent. I mean, we no longer have any air assets (planes or anti-aircraft batteries) in the region. Because we bailed from Iraq, Israel could take an airfield in eastern Syria and launch sorties right over the northern region of Iraq and right to the nuclear sites in Iran. There might be another Nobel Peace Prize for President Obama in the near future. But, that would freak the market.

Hey, look at that one in the top, right corner...

Nice, very nice... And, that border in the top, right is the Turkey/Iraq border... About 100 km to the east is Iran... And, now we don't have to have Turkey and Iraq playing stupid games. Just overfly defenseless Iraq. Nice plan Bama

A Black Swan could have taken flight...

 

[JTH]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

I don't like it, but I do like it, "Like button engaged"

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Extraordinary, or just ordinary

Too bad our safe investment option is limited to a fund where the Treasury monetizes borrowed money. And, when it is done every year - and on a known schedule - is it really extraordinary.

Beware. The safest place to be just might be anywhere the bad debtor with champagne tastes isn't. This whole issue reminds me of a family dealing with a boozer. Family members get frustrated and take all the bottles they can find and throw them away. The boozer is contrite for a while but fights for his or her rights to booze. But, low and behold, the sly fox hid one in the toilet tank. There's always one in the toilet tank. The 'G Fund' is our Bacardi in the tank.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Apple

Can anyone see the pattern not mentioned: Arizona, Texas, Illinois, Florida and Kentucky

Hint 1: Illinois is the odd ball.
Hint 2: Average is about 29
Hint 3: Average without the Dead Cat is about 35

Kalefornea's Gubnor Moonbeam assumed a state GDP increase of 4% for his budget. Now, he must assume 2%. Regretfully, Gubnor Moonbeam also opines:

He also said much of the income tax revenue increase the state enjoyed this spring will not be lasting, attributing the rush instead to wealthy taxpayers shifting income from 2013 into 2012 to avoid higher federal tax rates. Administration officials said they also expect tax revenue in the final two months of the budget year, May and June, to fall below original estimates.

Read more here: Gov. Jerry Brown takes cautious approach on California budget - State Budget - The Sacramento Bee​

My guess is that said wealthy plutocrats are also shifting income to Arizona, Texas, Florida and Kentucky. Just a guess. That will, unexpectantly, reduce his rosy scenario a bit more. What a tragedy. All those needy graspers will have nothing to grasp from. Tragedy...

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

I have faith in Big Gubmint (Socialism). I have faith and confidence. But, I ain't got no toilet paper...

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

The 'G Fund' is our Bacardi in the tank.

Why you picking on my rum of choice?

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

Why you picking on my rum of choice?

Good one. But, any booze will be someones fave!!!

A little 'Comfort' goes a long way...